by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 07:24:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 273 thousand from 267 thousand.

• At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June.

Economist Tom Lawler sent me an undated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).

Short sales are down in all of these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

As Lawler noted last month: The Baltimore Metro area is included in the overall Mid-Atlantic region (covered by MRIS). Baltimore is shown separately because a large portion of the YOY increase in the foreclosure share of home sales in the Mid-Atlantic region was attributable to the significant increase in foreclosure sales in the Baltimore Metro area.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	May-15	May-14	May-15	May-14	May-15	May-14	May-15	May-14
Las Vegas	7.3%	7.9%	8.0%	9.1%	15.3%	17.0%	21.9%	40.2%
Reno**	5.0%	11.0%	4.0%	6.0%	9.0%	17.0%
Phoenix	2.8%	3.9%	3.2%	6.7%	6.0%	10.7%	24.0%	29.5%
Sacramento	4.7%	7.0%	5.4%	8.3%	10.1%	15.3%	17.4%	20.5%
Minneapolis	2.4%	3.9%	6.6%	10.0%	9.0%	13.9%
Mid-Atlantic	3.4%	5.2%	10.4%	8.1%	13.8%	13.3%	16.2%	17.2%
Baltimore MSA****	3.6%	5.8%	16.3%	11.9%	19.8%	17.6%
Orlando	3.9%	9.2%	22.8%	24.7%	26.7%	34.0%	33.9%	43.8%
Florida SF	5.3%	9.6%	25.7%	24.6%	31.0%	34.2%	43.4%	48.9%
Florida C/TH	3.2%	7.6%	20.6%	19.7%	23.9%	27.3%	69.5%	72.1%
Miami MSA SF	6.2%	9.6%	16.1%	16.4%	22.3%	26.0%	34.9%	42.6%
Miami MSA C/TH	3.2%	5.9%	17.6%	17.9%	20.8%	23.7%	65.8%	70.1%
Tampa MSA SF	4.3%	7.1%	20.0%	22.1%	24.3%	29.2%	35.3%	40.6%
Tampa MSA C/TH	3.0%	4.9%	13.6%	18.6%	16.6%	23.5%	57.5%	62.7%
Northeast Florida					26.7%	36.8%
Chicago (city)					16.2%	21.6%
Hampton Roads					17.4%	21.3%
Spokane					12.8%	17.0%
Hampton Roads					17.4%	21.3%
Spokane					12.8%	17.0%
Richmond VA MSA			8.5%	13.9%			14.9%	19.4%
Memphis			14.3%	15.6%			28.3%	31.6%
Springfield IL**			5.4%	8.7%
Tucson							25.6%	31.3%
Toledo							26.1%	36.6%
Des Moines							14.0%	17.5%
Peoria							17.9%	19.6%
Georgia***							20.3%	26.0%
Omaha							15.9%	19.4%
Pensacola							31.3%	32.6%
Knoxville							20.5%	22.9%
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS ****Baltimore is included in the Mid-Atlantic region, but is shown separately here

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 04:08:00 PM

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.1% in May

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.1% in May, following a revised loss of 1.4% during April. In May, the index equaled 132.1 (2000=100). The all-time high is 135.8, reached in January 2015.

Compared with May 2014, the SA index increased just 1.8%, which was well below the 2.7% gain in April and the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2013 (-4.3%). ...

“The good news is that truck tonnage increased in May,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “But tonnage is certainly not strong at the moment as factory output is soft and there is an inventory reduction occurring throughout the supply chain.”

Costello noted that truck tonnage is off 2.7% from the high in January.

“I believe the inventory correction should end this summer and truck freight, helped by better personal consumption, will accelerate,” he said, “which is good because I think it is unlikely factory output will boost truck tonnage much until later this year or next year.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up only 1.8% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 01:11:00 PM

According to Black Knight's First Look report for May, the percent of loans delinquent increased 4% in May compared to April, and declined 12% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in May and were down 22% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.96% in May, up from 4.77% in April.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in May to 1.49%.  This was the lowest level of foreclosure inventory since January 2008.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 326,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 212,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for May in early July.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	May 2015	Apr 2015	May 2014	May 2013
Delinquent	4.96%	4.70%	5.62%	6.08%
In Foreclosure	1.49%	1.55%	1.91%	3.05%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,591,000	1,463,000	1,670,000	1,708,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	922,000	952,000	1,169,000	1,335,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	754,000	764,000	966,000	1,525,000
Total Properties	3,268,000	3,179,000	3,805,000	4,569,000

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 10:12:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index Returns to Positive Territory

Led by growing demand for new schools, hospitals, cultural facilities and municipal buildings, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) increased in May following its second monthly drop this year. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the May ABI score was 51.9, up from a mark of 48.8 in April. This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 61.5, up from a reading of 60.1 the previous month.

“As has been the case for the past several years, while the design and construction industry has been in a recovery phase, we continue to receive mixed signals on business conditions in the marketplace,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Generally, the business climate is favorable, but there are still construction sectors and regions of the country that are struggling, producing the occasional backslide in the midst of what seems to be growing momentum for the entire industry.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.9 in May, up from 48.8 in April. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.  The multi-family residential market was negative for the fourth consecutive month - and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments - or at least less growth.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 10 of the last 12 months, suggesting an increase in CRE investment in 2015.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2015 08:35:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2015 (Third Estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 0.7 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, exports decreased less than previously estimated, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and imports increased more ...
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 1.8% to 2.1%. Residential investment was revised up from 5.0% to 6.5%.

Q1 will probably be revised up again when the annual revision is released on July 30th.