by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2015 11:59:00 AM

The new home sales report for May was solid, with sales above expectations at 546 thousand on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and upward revisions to prior months.

Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 546,000 Annual Rate in May

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through May, were 233,000, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is up 24.0% from 188,000 during the same period of 2014 (NSA). That is a strong year-over-year gain for the first five months!

Sales were up 19.5% year-over-year in May.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2014 and 2015 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

The year-over-year gain will probably be strong through July (the first seven months were especially weak in 2014), however I expect the year-over-year increases to slow later this year - but the overall year-over-year gain should be solid in 2015.

Also, as part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.

From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2015 was $282,800; the average sales price was $337,000."

The following graph shows the median and average new home prices.

Click on graph for larger image.

During the housing bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales.  When housing started to recovery - with limited finished lots in recovering areas - builders moved to higher price points to maximize profits.

The average price in May 2015 was $337,000 and the median price was $282,800.  Both are above the bubble high (this is due to both a change in mix and rising prices), but are below the recent peak. The recent decline in the median and average is probably because some builders have introduced new homes at lower price points.

The third graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price.

About 8% of homes sold were under $150K in May 2015.  This is down from 30% in 2002 - but up a little from earlier this year.  The under $150K new home is probably going away.

There has also been some pickup in homes sold in the $150K to $300K range.

And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next few years.

The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through May 2015. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.

I expect existing home sales to move sideways (distressed sales will continue to decline and be partially offset by more conventional / equity sales).  And I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales.

Another way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales.

This ratio was fairly stable from 1994 through 2006, and then the flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated and depressed new home sales. (Note: This ratio was fairly stable back to the early '70s, but I only have annual data for the earlier years).

In general the ratio has been trending down, and this ratio will probably continue to trend down over the next several years.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2015 10:16:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 546 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up by a total of 34 thousand (SA).

"Sales of new single-family houses in May 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.2 percent above the revised April rate of 534,000 and is 19.5 percent above the May 2014 estimate of 457,000."

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales since the bottom, new home sales are still close to the bottoms for previous recessions.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in May to 4.5 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 206,000. This represents a supply of 4.5 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In May 2015 (red column), 51 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 43 thousand homes were sold in May.  This is the highest for May since 2007.

The all time high for May was 120 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for May was 26 thousand in 2011.

This was above expectations of 525,000 sales in May, and new home sales are on pace for solid growth in 2015.  I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2015 09:09:00 AM

This house price index is only for houses with Fannie or Freddie mortgages.

From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in April 2015

U.S. house prices rose in April, up 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.3 percent change in March remains unchanged.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From April 2014 to April 2015, house prices were up 5.3 percent. The U.S. index is 2.3 percent below its March 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the February 2006 index level.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from March 2015 to April 2015 ranged from -0.8 percent in the East North Central division to +1.4 percent in the West North Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive, ranging from +2.3 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +7.5 percent in the Pacific division.
emphasis added

This graph is from the FHFA and shows nominal house prices in April were 2.3% below the March 2007 peak for this index.

However, these are nominal prices. In real terms (inflation adjusted), national prices are still around 20% below the previous peak.

by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2015 07:11:00 PM

Update on Greece, from the WSJ: Greek Bailout Proposals Lift Hopes of Deal

From the Financial Times: Painful reality — creditors will support Greece in any case

Hopefully a deal will be reached.

Tuesday:

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by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2015 04:57:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for May 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in 10, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 50. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in eight, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 66.

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