by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 09:29:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for previous months were generally revised higher, leaving the level of the index in April slightly above its initial estimate. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing. The output of utilities increased 0.2 percent in May. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:33:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

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by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates

While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.

Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.

Monday:

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by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM

Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".

From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse

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by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM

Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch".    I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago).  This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.

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