RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates
While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.Monday:
Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.
Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM
Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".
From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse
Update: Predicting the Next Recession
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM
Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch". I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago). This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2015 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.
For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week.
For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).
Friday, June 12, 2015
Goldman Sachs: FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 10:22:00 PM
A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: June FOMC Preview: On Track
