by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM

Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".

From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse

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by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM

Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch".    I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago).  This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.

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by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2015 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week. 

For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

----- Monday, June 15th -----
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).

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by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 10:22:00 PM

A few excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: June FOMC Preview: On Track

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by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2015 05:15:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me a preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in May.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).

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