by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2015 08:39:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.2% from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.7% from May 2014.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $444.9 billion, an increase of 1.2 percent from the previous month, and 2.7 percent above May 2014. ... The March 2015 to April 2015 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged to +0.2 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 1.0%.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.2% on a YoY basis (2.7% for all retail sales).

The increase in May was close to the consensus expectations of a 1.3% increase, and sales in March and April were revised up. A solid report.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2015 07:52:00 PM

From the Financial Times: Anxious Greeks pull money from banks amid fears of capital controls

“Last month the amounts being moved by individual depositors were noticeably smaller, between €200,000 and €100,000. We’re getting to the bottom of the barrel,” [said an Athens-based banking analyst], estimating Greeks had stashed about €5bn under mattresses and floorboards since January.
except with permission

By the time they impose capital controls, all of the money will be gone.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 276 thousand from 275 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for May will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 1.3% in May, and to increase 0.8% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for April. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

• At 12:00 PM, Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2015 02:36:00 PM

From the WSJ: U.S. Annual Budget Deficit Falls Near Seven-Year Low

Over the past 12 months, the budget deficit has narrowed to $412 billion, down from $460 billion in April and $491 billion a year earlier. That marks the lowest 12-month deficit since August 2008.
...
The brighter budget outlook means the deficit could fall below projections made by analysts just a few months ago. The Congressional Budget Office forecast in March that the federal deficit would rise to $486 billion this year, from $485 billion last year.

Meanwhile, Congress has yet to raise the federal debt limit. The Treasury has been using emergency measures since mid-March to avoid breaching the ceiling.

The Treasury hasn’t yet said how long it might be able to do that, but the CBO estimated in March that those measures should last until October or November.

The most recent CBO projection was for the fiscal 2015 budget deficit to be 2.7% of GDP. Right now it looks like fiscal 2015 will be closer to 2.4% (a significant change).

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2015 11:18:00 AM

From Reuters: U.S. services data suggest upward revision to Q1 GDP

The Commerce Department's quarterly services survey ... showed consumption, including healthcare spending, increased at a faster clip than the government had assumed in its second estimate of gross domestic product published last month.

JPMorgan said the data suggested first-quarter consumer spending could be bumped up ... together with revisions for construction spending, trade and wholesale inventory data, suggests first-quarter GDP could be revised to show it contracting at a 0.2 percent rate instead of the 0.7 percent pace of decline the government reported last month.

Here is the Q1 Quarterly Services Press Release

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2015 10:01:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their April 2015 index data today.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 1.2% from March to April (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted). 

The 10 city MSA increased 1.7% in April, and the 20-MSA and 30-MSA RPIs both increased 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The year-over-year (YoY) change was higher in April than in March, with the 100-MSA composite up 5.3% compared to April 2014.

The index is still down 17.5% from the peak in 2006 (not inflation adjusted).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through April 2015. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Most of the other indexes are also showing the year-over-year change mostly steady at around 5% for the last several months.

Note: The March Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, June 30th.