by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2015 10:11:00 AM

According to Gasbuddy.com (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are down to a national average of $2.75 per gallon. One year ago for the week of Memorial Day, prices were at $3.75 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were $3.70 per gallon.

Ten years ago, price were at $2.17 per gallon, and fifteen years ago at $1.57.

Memorial Day	Weekly Average Gasoline Price
29-May-00	$1.57
28-May-01	$1.74
27-May-02	$1.43
26-May-03	$1.53
31-May-04	$2.10
30-May-05	$2.17
29-May-06	$2.94
28-May-07	$3.25
26-May-08	$3.99
25-May-09	$2.49
31-May-10	$2.84
30-May-11	$3.90
28-May-12	$3.73
27-May-13	$3.70
26-May-14	$3.75
25-May-15	$2.75

According to Bloomberg, WTI oil is at $59.40 per barrel, and Brent is at $65.37 per barrel.  Last year on Memorial Day, Brent was at $110.01 per barrel, and two years ago Brent was at $103.77.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2015 10:01:00 PM

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is now at $85.50. In May 2009, RevPAR had fallen to $58.39. So, RevPAR is up 46.9% over the last 6 years - and the occupancy rate will probably be at a new record high this year.  A great year for hotels!

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 16 May

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 10-16 May 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 0.5 percent to 70.3 percent. Average daily rate increased 5.2 percent to finish the week at US$122.10. Revenue per available room for the week was up 5.7 percent to finish at US$85.80.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2015, dashed orange is 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.  Purple is for 2000.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is solidly above the median for 2000-2007, and solidly above last year.

Right now 2015 is even above 2000 (best year for hotels) - and 2015 will probably be the best year on record for hotels.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2015 11:30:00 AM

From the WSJ: Greece Won’t Meet IMF Repayments in June, Interior Minister Says

Greece said Sunday that it won’t have the money it is due to repay to the International Monetary Fund next month unless it strikes a deal with international creditors over further rescue funding.

Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis told privately owned television station Mega that Greece is scheduled to repay €1.6 billion ($1.76 billion) to the IMF between June 5-19, but the payments cannot be met.

“This money will not be given,” he said. “It does not exist.”

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2015 08:31:00 AM

The key reports this week are April New Home sales on Tuesday, the 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP on Friday, and March Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, May 25th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 26th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. Although this is the March report, it is really a 3 month average of January, February and March prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the February 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for March. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.2% year-over-year in March, and for prices to increase 1.0% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 509 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April from 481 thousand in March.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for May.

----- Wednesday, May 27th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly), April 2015

----- Thursday, May 28th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 270 thousand from 274 thousand.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.

----- Friday, May 29th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2015 (second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.9% annualized in Q1, revised down from the 0.2% advance estimate.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 53.0, up from 52.3 in April.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 90.0, up from the preliminary reading of 88.6, and down from the April reading of 95.9.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2015 04:01:00 PM

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 3% in April

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 3% in April, following a revised gain of 0.4% during the previous month. In April, the index equaled 128.6 (2000=100), which was the lowest level since April 2014. The all-time high is 135.8, reached in January 2015.

Compared with April 2014, the SA index increased just 1%, which was well below the 4.2% gain in March and the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2013. ...

“Like most economic indicators, truck tonnage was soft in April,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Unless tonnage snaps back in May and June, GDP growth will likely be suppressed in the second quarter.”

Costello added that truck tonnage is off 5.3% from the high in January.

“The next couple of months will be telling for both truck freight and the broader economy. Any significant jump from the first quarter is looking more doubtful,” he said.

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 68.8% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled just under 10 billion tons of freight in 2014. Motor carriers collected $700.4 billion, or 80.3% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up only 1.0% year-over-year.