by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2015 01:37:00 PM

From economists at Nomura: US Q1 GDP: It will likely show that final sales barely grew, but April data should be better.

Adverse weather conditions, West Coast port disruptions, the stronger dollar and the decline in crude oil prices all likely hurt economic activity in Q1 2015. Business investment slowed considerably as oil and gas exploration projects halted abruptly and precipitously on lower crude oil prices while manufacturing activity was additionally hurt by the stronger dollar. Also, we believe that lower gasoline prices failed to spur consumer activity as it appears that households decided to save or pay down debt using the extra money saved from lower gasoline prices. Furthermore, adverse weather conditions likely hurt consumer and construction activity. Taken together, we expect headline Q1 GDP to grow by 1.0% q-o-q on an annualized rate with final sales increasing by only 0.1%.

However, there are two key sources of uncertainty worth noting. First, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will only have the first two months of trade data on hand and will have to make some assumptions for March. This is in no way different from other years. However, due to West Coast port labor disputes, trade activity slowed considerably in the first two months of the year. BEA’s assumptions on how quickly trade activity rebounded will have a notable impact on topline GDP. Second, our work suggests that there is material residual seasonality in topline GDP in Q1 as it tends to be below trend due to strong seasonal patterns in defense spending. As such, we now expect government expenditures to be more of a drag than we had previously assumed. Nevertheless, this factor remains a key source of uncertainty.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2015 11:59:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 74. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 46 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 86.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 44 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).

It appears we are seeing weakness in several oil producing states including Alaska and Oklahoma. It wouldn't be surprising if North Dakota, Texas and other oil producing states also turned red later this year.


Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is almost all green again.

Note: Blue added for Red/Green issues.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2015 09:15:00 AM

According to Black Knight's First Look report for March, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 12% in March compared to February, and declined 15% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in March and were down about 27% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.70% in March, down from 5.36% in February.  This is the lowest level of delinquencies since August 2007.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in March to 1.55%.  This was the lowest level of foreclosure inventory since December 2007.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 390,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 288,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for March in early May.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Mar 2015	Feb 2015	Mar 2014	Mar 2013
Delinquent	4.70%	5.36%	5.52%	6.59%
In Foreclosure	1.55%	1.58%	2.13%	3.38%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,409,000	1,646,000	1,571,000	1,842,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	971,000	1,067,000	1,199,000	1,466,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	782,000	800,000	1,070,000	1,689,000
Total Properties	3,162,000	3,512,000	3,840,000	4,997,000

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2015 07:59:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.5% in 1Q, suggesting the economy hit a soft patch at the start of the year. Business investment looks particularly weak with a likely decline in nonresidential structures investment, as suggested by the monthly Census data, and sluggish growth in equipment investment. We also look for the trade deficit to widen, reflecting the stronger dollar and weaker growth abroad. There is room for surprise with both the investment and trade figures, however. Most importantly, the BEA does not have estimates yet from the Census Bureau on March trade and construction spending, creating room for interpretation from the BEA. Moreover, the port shutdown on the West Coast disrupted activity, adding additional uncertainty for both trade flows and business investment. Elsewhere, we look for consumer spending to increase 2.0% in 1Q. Both auto sales and core control retail sales improved through the quarter after the slow start. We also expect services spending to look stronger, owing in part to greater spending on utilities given the winter weather. Residential investment is likely to be little changed as a decline in housing starts offsets a pickup in existing home sales.

It is important to remember that there is scope for error in forecasting the first release of GDP since the BEA does not have complete data for the month. Indeed, it is not unusual for the first release of GDP to miss the consensus forecast by a full percentage point in either direction. We would argue that there is additional uncertainty this quarter given the potential drag from the harsh winter weather and port shutdown in February.

The Atlanta Fed is forecasting:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 16, down from 0.2 percent on April 14.

Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 4/23/2015 07:51:00 PM

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Move Down Slightly

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving down slightly this week and remaining near their 2015 lows as the spring homebuying season continues. ...

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.65 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending April 23, 2015, down from last week when it averaged 3.67 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.33 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.92 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.94 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.39 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.  

30 year mortgage rates are up a little (30 bps) from the all time low of 3.35% in late 2012, but down from 4.33% a year ago. 

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971. Mortgage rates were below 5% back in the 1950s.

The PMMS is a weekly survey. Here is an update on daily rates from Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Ground at Recent Highs

Freddie collects data for the Survey from Monday through Wednesday, but most of the responses have been received by Tuesday. This week, that meant that most of the respondents had not yet seen the steep losses on Wednesday. Naturally then, Freddie's numbers suggest rates are lower than they actually are by the time people read about them on Thursday morning. Rates are, in fact, markedly higher than last week's. Whereas most top tier scenarios were being quoted 3.625% for conventional 30yr fixed loans last week, 3.75% is more prevalent today