by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 04:41:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR)

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it has not objected to the capital plans of 28 bank holding companies participating in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). One institution received a conditional non-objection based on qualitative grounds, and the Federal Reserve objected to two firms' plans on qualitative grounds.
...
The Federal Reserve did not object to the capital plan of Bank of America Corporation, but is requiring the institution to submit a new capital plan by the end of the third quarter to address certain weaknesses in its capital planning processes. The Federal Reserve objected to the capital plans of Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation and Santander Holdings USA on qualitative concerns.

From the WSJ: Federal Reserve Rejects 2 Banks’ Capital Plans in Annual ‘Stress Tests’

Twenty-eight of 31 large banks received Federal Reserve approval to return capital to investors on Wednesday but only after some of the biggest Wall Street firms came perilously close to failing the regulator’s annual “stress test.”

A 29th firm, Bank of America Corp. , received conditional approval of its capital plan and can move forward with boosting dividends or stock buybacks, but must resubmit its proposal to address “certain weaknesses” including its ability to measure losses and revenue, the Fed said. ... The Fed rejected the capital plans of two large banks, the U.S. units of Deutsche Bank AG and Banco Santander SA, for “qualitative” deficiencies including ability to model losses and identify risks. ...

Deutsche Bank, which took the stress test for the first time this year, was rejected for “numerous and significant deficiencies” across several areas of the capital planning process including the bank’s ability to identify risks, the Fed said.

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 12:14:00 PM

From Reuters: U.S. services data suggest upward revision to Q4 growth

The Commerce Department's quarterly services survey ... showed consumption ... increased at a faster clip than the government had assumed in its second estimate of [GDP].

Economists said the data suggested fourth-quarter consumer spending could be raised by at least six-tenths of a percentage point to a 4.9 percent annual rate ... the QSS suggested fourth-quarter GDP growth could be raised to a 2.5 percent pace from the 2.2 percent rate reported last month ...

Here is the Q4 Quarterly Services Press Release

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 10:43:00 AM

Each month I track sales and inventory data for several previous bubble areas (like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Sacramento). These areas are interesting because they had huge prices bubbles, and large price declines - followed by significant investor buying (that is now declining).  I also track these areas because the data is available on line.

Housing economist Tom Lawler is tracking a number of other areas, and has been kind enough to share that data with us (focused on distressed sales and cash buying).

If you are looking for data on your own area, you could try the local MLS, or look at the Zillow Research data. In addition to prices, Zillow tracks inventory and sales by metro area and zip code.  Scroll down to "Other Metrics" and look at "Home Sales" and "For-sale Inventory" for the last five years.

Caution: Zillow has been expanding their coverage, so use caution when creating a data series based on aggregate data.

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 6, 2015. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week to the lowest level since January 2015. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.01 percent, the highest level since the week ending January 2, 2015, from 3.96 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

2014 was the lowest year for refinance activity since year 2000.

2015 will probably see a little more refinance activity than in 2014, but not a large refinance boom.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is 2% higher than a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 3/10/2015 07:39:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Leans Toward Removing ‘Patient’ Promise on Rates

The Federal Reserve is strongly considering removing a barrier to raising short-term interest rates, by dropping its promise to be “patient” before acting.
...
Dropping the patience promise next week doesn’t mean officials are yet set on a rate increase in June. Ms. Yellen has signaled that the inflation backdrop is the key wildcard in the months ahead. Though the job market is improving as the Fed hoped, inflation isn’t moving back toward its 2% objective.

It seems very likely that "patient" will be removed from the statement. This will mean a June rate hike is possible, but not guaranteed.

Wednesday:
• 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, the Q4 Quarterly Services Report from the Census Bureau.

• At 4:30 PM, the Federal Reserve will release the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review Results (Stress Test)