by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2015 08:01:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 21, 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC released its latest enforcement actions leading to eight removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List. After the removals, the list stands at 378 institutions with assets of $117.9 billion. We updated asset figures with 2014q4 financials, which accounted for a $812 million of the $3.2 billion decline in assets this week. A year ago, the list held 578 institutions with assets of $193.0 billion.

The OCC terminated actions against Armed Forces Bank, National Association, Fort Leavenworth, KS ($1.7 billion); Academy Bank, National Association, Colorado Springs, CO ($325 million); Mission National Bank, San Francisco, CA ($177 million); Southern Commerce Bank, National Association, Tampa, FL ($70.2 million); The First National Bank of Sullivan, Sullivan, IL ($60 million); Olmsted National Bank, Rochester, MN ($54 million); SunBank, National Association, Phoenix, AZ ($32 million); and Armed Forces Bank of California, National Association, San Diego, CA ($17 million).

Next week, we anticipate the FDIC will provide an update on its enforcement action activity, industry results for the third quarter, and updated aggregate figures for their official problem bank list.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 10:15:00 PM

Some good news from the LA Times: Shipping lines and dockworkers reach deal, port shutdown averted

Shipping companies and the dockworkers union have reached a tentative deal on a new labor contract, union officials said Friday night, staving off a shutdown of 29 ports that would have choked off trade through the West Coast.
...
It will take weeks, if not months, just to clear the current backlog, port officials said.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 05:11:00 PM

There was an agreement today (pending some proposals on Monday) to extend the Greek bailout for four months.

My first reaction is that there seem to be two possible outcomes in four months:

1) The technocrats at the ECB / EU / IMF agree to change the target for the primary budget surplus. The current plan is for Greece to run a primary surplus of 3.0% in 2015 and 4.5% in 2016, however that assumed that the unemployment rate would peak at 14.8% (instead the unemployment rate increased to close to 28%), and that GDP would start increasing in 2012 - instead GDP kept falling - and Greece is now in a Great Depression size contraction.

Contractionary policy has been very contractionary!

It is amazing that Greece is even running a primary budget surplus with a collapsing economy. If the primary target isn't change, the depression will continue.  A little growth would help everyone, so easing the primary budget target is critical.

2) The Greeks will take the four months and ready the drachma printing presses.

Point 1 is possible, but the technocrats are the only hope for Greece, not the politicians.  See the following quote from German Finance minister Wolfgang Schauble in 2013:

"Nobody in Europe sees this contradiction between fiscal policy consolidation and growth,” Schauble said. “We have a growth-friendly process of consolidation, and we have sustainable growth, however you want to word it.”

Not everyone is blind to the obvious - some people in Europe see the obvious contradiction (just look at the data for Europe as a whole and Greece in particular).  Too many politicians can't (or won't) look at the data and change their minds.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 03:52:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the summary tables below for selected publicly-traded home builders.

The first table is for Q4.

This second and third tables are for Calendar Years 2014, 2013, and 2012.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg
D.R. Horton	7,370	5,454	35.1%	7,973	6,188	28.8%	$281,036	263,542	6.6%
PulteGroup	3,232	3,214	0.6%	5,316	4,964	7.1%	$334,000	325,000	2.8%
NVR	2,713	2,631	3.1%	3,469	3,342	3.8%	$375,500	365,300	2.8%
The Ryland Group	1,547	1,428	8.3%	2,489	2,178	14.3%	$338,000	314,000	7.6%
Beazer Homes	966	895	7.9%	885	1,038	-14.7%	$295,600	279,300	5.8%
Standard Pacific	978	878	11.4%	1,475	1,343	9.8%	$491,000	446,000	10.1%
Meritage Homes	1,272	1,131	12.5%	1,863	1,468	26.9%	$369,000	363,000	1.7%
MDC Holdings	887	752	18.0%	1,242	1,252	-0.8%	$397,000	368,200	7.8%
M/I Homes	773	793	-2.5%	1,105	1,120	-1.3%	$322,000	292,000	10.3%
Total	19,738	17,176	14.9%	25,817	22,893	12.8%	$336,302	$321,436	4.6%

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price $
Calendar Year	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012
D.R. Horton	31,625	25,315	22,513	30,455	25,161	19,954	276,296	255,646	228,395
PulteGroup	16,652	17,080	19,039	17,196	17,766	16,505	329,000	305,000	276,000
NVR	12,389	11,800	10,954	11,859	11,834	9,843	368,500	349,100	317,073
The Ryland Group	7,668	7,263	5,781	7,677	7,035	4,897	333,000	296,000	262,000
Beazer Homes	4,819	4,989	5,111	4,798	5,056	4,603	287,960	262,004	229,126
Standard Pacific	4,967	4,898	4,014	4,956	4,602	3,291	478,000	413,000	362,000
Meritage Homes	5,944	5,615	4,795	5,862	5,259	4,238	365,000	339,000	279,000
MDC Holdings	4,623	4,327	4,342	4,366	4,710	3,740	377,300	345,400	307,800
M/I Homes	3,663	3,787	3,020	3,721	3,472	2,765	313,000	286,000	264,000
Total	92,350	85,074	79,569	90,890	84,895	69,836	326,777	302,631	269,578

	Net Orders (% Change)		Settlements (% Change)		Average Closing Price (% Change)
Calendar Year	2014 vs. 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012
D.R. Horton	24.9%	12.4%	21.0%	26.1%	8.1%	11.9%
PulteGroup	-2.5%	-10.3%	-3.2%	7.6%	7.9%	10.5%
NVR	5.0%	7.7%	0.2%	20.2%	5.6%	10.1%
The Ryland Group	5.6%	25.6%	9.1%	43.7%	12.5%	13.0%
Beazer Homes	-3.4%	-2.4%	-5.1%	9.8%	9.9%	14.3%
Standard Pacific	1.4%	22.0%	7.7%	39.8%	15.7%	14.1%
Meritage Homes	5.9%	17.1%	11.5%	24.1%	7.7%	21.5%
MDC Holdings	6.8%	-0.3%	-7.3%	25.9%	9.2%	12.2%
M/I Homes	-3.3%	25.4%	7.2%	25.6%	9.4%	8.3%
Total	8.6%	6.9%	7.1%	21.6%	8.0%	12.3%

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 01:52:00 PM

Just an update: Some details have leaked out, although the text is not available yet. It appears there will be a four month extension of the loan agreement - not the program - and the Greek government will standstill for four months - with no additional austerity, and no new spending programs. This is all tentative and the details could be wrong.

Press conference here, possibly as soon as 2 PM ET.