by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 03:52:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the summary tables below for selected publicly-traded home builders.

The first table is for Q4.

This second and third tables are for Calendar Years 2014, 2013, and 2012.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price
Qtr. Ended:	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg	12/14	12/13	% Chg
D.R. Horton	7,370	5,454	35.1%	7,973	6,188	28.8%	$281,036	263,542	6.6%
PulteGroup	3,232	3,214	0.6%	5,316	4,964	7.1%	$334,000	325,000	2.8%
NVR	2,713	2,631	3.1%	3,469	3,342	3.8%	$375,500	365,300	2.8%
The Ryland Group	1,547	1,428	8.3%	2,489	2,178	14.3%	$338,000	314,000	7.6%
Beazer Homes	966	895	7.9%	885	1,038	-14.7%	$295,600	279,300	5.8%
Standard Pacific	978	878	11.4%	1,475	1,343	9.8%	$491,000	446,000	10.1%
Meritage Homes	1,272	1,131	12.5%	1,863	1,468	26.9%	$369,000	363,000	1.7%
MDC Holdings	887	752	18.0%	1,242	1,252	-0.8%	$397,000	368,200	7.8%
M/I Homes	773	793	-2.5%	1,105	1,120	-1.3%	$322,000	292,000	10.3%
Total	19,738	17,176	14.9%	25,817	22,893	12.8%	$336,302	$321,436	4.6%

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price $
Calendar Year	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012	2014	2013	2012
D.R. Horton	31,625	25,315	22,513	30,455	25,161	19,954	276,296	255,646	228,395
PulteGroup	16,652	17,080	19,039	17,196	17,766	16,505	329,000	305,000	276,000
NVR	12,389	11,800	10,954	11,859	11,834	9,843	368,500	349,100	317,073
The Ryland Group	7,668	7,263	5,781	7,677	7,035	4,897	333,000	296,000	262,000
Beazer Homes	4,819	4,989	5,111	4,798	5,056	4,603	287,960	262,004	229,126
Standard Pacific	4,967	4,898	4,014	4,956	4,602	3,291	478,000	413,000	362,000
Meritage Homes	5,944	5,615	4,795	5,862	5,259	4,238	365,000	339,000	279,000
MDC Holdings	4,623	4,327	4,342	4,366	4,710	3,740	377,300	345,400	307,800
M/I Homes	3,663	3,787	3,020	3,721	3,472	2,765	313,000	286,000	264,000
Total	92,350	85,074	79,569	90,890	84,895	69,836	326,777	302,631	269,578

	Net Orders (% Change)		Settlements (% Change)		Average Closing Price (% Change)
Calendar Year	2014 vs. 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012	2014 vs 2013	2013 vs. 2012
D.R. Horton	24.9%	12.4%	21.0%	26.1%	8.1%	11.9%
PulteGroup	-2.5%	-10.3%	-3.2%	7.6%	7.9%	10.5%
NVR	5.0%	7.7%	0.2%	20.2%	5.6%	10.1%
The Ryland Group	5.6%	25.6%	9.1%	43.7%	12.5%	13.0%
Beazer Homes	-3.4%	-2.4%	-5.1%	9.8%	9.9%	14.3%
Standard Pacific	1.4%	22.0%	7.7%	39.8%	15.7%	14.1%
Meritage Homes	5.9%	17.1%	11.5%	24.1%	7.7%	21.5%
MDC Holdings	6.8%	-0.3%	-7.3%	25.9%	9.2%	12.2%
M/I Homes	-3.3%	25.4%	7.2%	25.6%	9.4%	8.3%
Total	8.6%	6.9%	7.1%	21.6%	8.0%	12.3%

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 01:52:00 PM

Just an update: Some details have leaked out, although the text is not available yet. It appears there will be a four month extension of the loan agreement - not the program - and the Greek government will standstill for four months - with no additional austerity, and no new spending programs. This is all tentative and the details could be wrong.

Press conference here, possibly as soon as 2 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 10:45:00 AM

Some interesting analysis from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Using the Freddie Mac Home Price Index for 369 MSAs, below is a chart showing the number of MSAs where the FMHPI over 60-month period ending in the date shown either (1) declined, or (2) fell by at least 10%. (The FMHPIs are based on repeat transactions of homes backing GSE mortgages, and data are available back to January 1975.) The first chart covers the five-year period ending January 1980 through the five-year period ending December 1999.

In five-year periods that including the late 70’s there were very few MSAs whose HPI fell over those five years, mainly because this was a period of very high inflation (see last page). That changed significantly as inflation fell (and following a serve recession), and the number of MSAs experiencing home price declines over a five year period increased significantly in the 80’s – with the most severe declines coming in the oil-patch states. There was another significantly jump in the number of areas experiencing “sustained” home price declines in the 90’s, including many Northeast markets (including the Boston “bubble/bust,” with the bust from the late 80’s through the early/mid 90’s) and the California “boom/bust” (especially Southern California, with the bust from the summer of 1990 through the beginning of 1996.



The above chart doesn’t reflect the number of MSAs who have ever experienced a decline in home prices over a five-year period from 1975 to 1999, but rather the number whose HPI over the same five-year period experienced a drop. Over the 1975-1999 period the FMHPI for 198 MSAs saw a decline over some five year period, and the FMHPI for 87 MSAs fell by 10% or more. And for the top 25 MSAs (in terms of population), 15 experienced a decline in home prices over some five period from 1975 to 1999, with eight experienced a double-digit drop over some five year period (including four out of the top five MSAs.).

Now let’s look at the same chart, but expanding to include the period through 2005.



As the chart indicates, from the five-year period ending in late 2001 through the five-year period ending in late 2005, there were NO MSAs that saw a decline in their respective FMHPIs. Stated another way, for folks trying to “model” mortgage credit default using loan-level data only available on mortgages originated from 1996 through 2005, there were virtually NO areas of the country that were “distressed” in terms of experiencing a decline in home prices over any five-year period.

Now let’s extend the chart through September of 2014.



Oh My!

Finally, here is a chart comparing consumer price inflation (cumulative, using the CPI-U-RS) over a rolling 60-month period with the number of MSAs experiencing a decline in their respective HPIs over the same rolling 60-month period. The chart ends in 2005.



During the period from the second half of the 70’s through the very early part of the 80’s, there were few MSAs experiencing sustained home price declines, in part because of high inflation. That was obviously not the case during the period from the latter half of the 90’s through the middle of last decade.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2015 09:06:00 AM

Fannie and Freddie reported results this week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs).

From Fannie Mae:

The continued decrease in the number of our seriously delinquent single-family loans, as well as lengthy foreclosure timelines in a number of states, have resulted in a reduction in the number of REO acquisitions and fewer dispositions in 2014 compared with 2013 and 2012.
...
We recognized a benefit for credit losses in 2014 primarily due to increases in home prices of 4.7% in 2014. Higher home prices decrease the likelihood that loans will default and reduce the amount of credit loss on loans that do default, which impacts our estimate of losses and ultimately reduces our total loss reserves and provision for credit losses.
emphasis added

The decline in REO is related to fewer delinquencies (higher house prices and a better economy), and long foreclosure time lines in some states (like Florida).

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph of Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Owned (REO).

REO inventory decreased in Q4 for both Fannie and Freddie, and combined inventory is down 25% year-over-year.   For Freddie, this is the lowest level of REO since Q2 2008.  For Fannie, this is the lowest level since 2009.

Delinquencies are falling, but there are still a large number of properties in the foreclosure process with long time lines in judicial foreclosure states.

by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2015 07:43:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in January.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic and Orlando are up year-over-year because of an increase foreclosure as lenders work through the backlog).

Short sales are down in these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

It is pretty amazing that distressed sales still make up almost 40% of sales in Orlando.  Florida has been very slow to recover from the severe damage of the housing bubble.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Jan-15	Jan-14	Jan-15	Jan-14	Jan-15	Jan-14	Jan-15	Jan-14
Las Vegas	9.7%	17.0%	9.4%	11.0%	19.1%	28.0%	36.0%	46.3%
Reno**	10.0%	16.0%	6.0%	9.0%	16.0%	25.0%
Phoenix	3.7%	6.8%	6.5%	9.6%	10.2%	16.5%	32.0%	36.3%
Sacramento	6.9%	11.8%	9.5%	8.4%	16.4%	20.2%	22.7%	26.6%
Minneapolis	4.1%	5.5%	16.0%	24.0%	20.1%	29.5%
Mid-Atlantic	5.8%	8.5%	15.2%	12.2%	21.0%	20.7%	21.4%	22.9%
Orlando	5.3%	11.7%	33.9%	25.7%	39.2%	37.4%	47.1%	49.2%
California *	6.4%	10.7%	6.7%	7.7%	13.1%	18.4%
Bay Area CA*	4.0%	8.5%	4.5%	5.2%	8.5%	13.7%	22.6%	25.8%
So. California*	6.5%	10.7%	5.7%	6.6%	12.2%	17.3%	24.9%	29.9%
Chicago (city)					24.1%	35.0%
Hampton Roads					27.6%	29.5%
Northeast Florida					38.2%	46.2%
Toledo							37.6%	43.9%
Tucson							34.8%	38.2%
Des Moines							22.0%	22.2%
Georgia***							31.3%	N/A
Omaha							24.0%	26.4%
Pensacola							38.3%	42.7%
Memphis*			14.8%	19.1%
Springfield IL**			16.2%	28.5%
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS