by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2015 11:14:00 AM

Here is a graph of expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures through December 2014.

This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.


Click on graph for larger image.

Data source: BEA Table 2.3.5U.

The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.

With the recent decline in energy prices, this ratio has declined sharply.  Hopefully energy prices are resuming their long term down trend as a percent of PCE.

by Calculated Risk on 2/13/2015 10:04:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February was at 93.6, down from 98.1 in January.

This was below the consensus forecast of 98.5. Somewhat higher gasoline prices are probably the reason for the decline in February.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2015 07:14:00 PM

Note: Data from other sources suggest most of the loans on these properties were originated almost a decade ago.  Still "clearing the deck" after the storm.

From RealtyTrac: U.S. Foreclosure Activity Increases 5 Percent in January Driven By 15-Month High in Bank Repossessions

RealtyTrac® ... today released its U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™ for January 2015, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 119,888 U.S. properties in January, an increase of 5 percent from the previous month but still down 4 percent from a year ago.

The 5 percent monthly increase was driven primarily by a 55 percent monthly jump in bank repossessions (REOs) to a 15-month high. A total of 37,292 U.S. properties were repossessed by lenders in January, up 23 percent from a year ago to the highest monthly total since October 2013.
...
“Due to our ponderous judicial system, most of the options have been exhausted, and the judges are now expediting the process,” said Mike Pappas, CEO and president of the Keyes Company, covering the South Florida market. “The banks recognize the opportunity in this improving market and are aggressively trying to remove these properties from their balance sheets. It is encouraging, after seven years, to see the end near on this dramatic cycle.”
...
“Our agents’ REO and distress business has wound considerably down over the last two years,” said Mark Hughes, Chief Operating Officer at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Despite a bit of an extension to this wind-down process due to delayed actions created by the Homeowner Bill of Rights in 2013, we are preparing that this is really a final push to clear the decks of the a still disproportionate amount of distressed homes and finally bring the market back to a more stability.”
emphasis added

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for February). The consensus is for a reading of 98.5, up from 98.1 in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2015 02:10:00 PM

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Move Higher on Strong Jobs Report

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates moving higher amid a strong employment report. Regardless, fixed-rate mortgages rates still remain near their May 23, 2013 lows. ...

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.69 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending February 12, 2015, up from last week when it averaged 3.59 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.28 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.99 percent with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.92 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.33 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.  

30 year mortgage rates are up a little (34 bps) from the all time low of 3.35% in late 2012, but down from 4.28% a year ago. 

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971. Mortgage rates were below 5% back in the 1950s.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2015 11:12:00 AM

From HotelNewsNow.com: US hotel results for week ending 7 February

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 February 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 1.9 percent to 57.5 percent. Average daily rate increased 3.5 percent to finish the week at US$113.55. Revenue per available room for the week was up 5.5 percent to finish at US$65.32.
emphasis added

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotels are now in the slow period of the year, but business travel will pick up soon.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2015, dashed orange is 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.  Purple is for 2000.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is solidly above the median for 2000-2007, and solidly above 2014.

So far 2015 is at about the same level as 2000 (best year for hotels) - and 2015 will probably be the best year ever for hotels.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com