by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2015 08:40:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3% from January 2014. Sales in December were unrevised at a 0.9% decrease.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $439.8 billion, a decrease of 0.8 percent from the previous month, but up 3.3 percent above January 2014. ... The November to December 2014 percent change was unrevised from -0.9 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased slightly.

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.9%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.9% on a YoY basis (3.3% for all retail sales).

The decrease in January was below consensus expectations of a 0.5% decrease.  Sales for both November and December were revised up slightly.

Although weaker than expected, after removing the impact of lower gasoline prices, this was an OK report.

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2015 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 304,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 278,000 to 279,000. The 4-week moving average was 289,750, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 292,750 to 293,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up to 279,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 289,750.

This was above the consensus forecast of 285,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2015 06:55:00 PM

From Reuters: Euro zone, Greece fail to agree way forward following meeting

We explored a number of issues, one of which was the current program," Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, told a news conference in the early hours on Thursday in Brussels.

"We discussed the possibility of an extension. For some that is clear that is preferred option but we haven't come to that conclusion as yet. We will need a little more time."

Quote of the day:

“We are not negotiating the bailout; it was cancelled by its own failure.” Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras

Earlier I posted some of the details of the failed agreement: Did Austerity in Greece Deliver?

Greece delivered on a primary surplus, but the details on unemployment and GDP show the "program" was the wrong policy.  Time to change the policy!

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 285 thousand from 278 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for January will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.5% in January, and to decrease 0.5% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2015 04:54:00 PM

From CNBC: EU, Greece come to agreement in principle, meetings to continue: Source

Greece has reached an agreement, in principle, with the European Union to stay in an EU bailout program, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC Wednesday.

No details.

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2015 01:30:00 PM

Oil prices are down today, with Brent at $55.05 per barrel, and WTI at $49.47. Note: There is less investment now, but current wells are still pumping.

Here is an excerpt from the Weekly Petroleum Status Report

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending February 6, 2015, 20,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.0% of their operable capacity last week. ...

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 101,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day, 3.6% below the same four-week period last year. ...

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years.
emphasis added

It is difficult to forecast oil and gasoline prices due to world events - and the response of producers to price changes, but currently the EIA expects gasoline prices to average $2.94/gal in 2015 according to the Short Term Energy Outlook released yesterday:

• EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $58/bbl in 2015 and $75/bbl in 2016, with 2015 and 2016 annual average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices expected to be $3/bbl and $4/bbl, respectively, below Brent. This price outlook is unchanged from last month's forecast. ...

• Driven largely by falling crude oil prices, U.S. weekly regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.04/gallon (gal) on January 26, the lowest since April 6, 2009, before increasing to $2.19/gal on February 9. EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.36/gal in 2014, to average $2.33/gal in 2015. The average household is now expected to spend about $750 less for gasoline in 2015 compared with last year because of lower prices. The projected regular gasoline retail price increases to an average of $2.73/gal in 2016.
emphasis added

Right now gasoline prices are down to around $2.22 per gallon nationally according to the Gasbuddy.com.

The following graph is from Gasbuddy.com. Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com