by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 04:26:00 PM

A couple of major changes: Sales were up year-over-year and inventory down slightly year-over-year in Phoenix!

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in December were up 9.2% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down about 8% to 29.2% of total sales. Non-cash sales were up 18.2% year-over-year.

3) Active inventory is now down 1.8% year-over-year - and at about the same level as in December 2011 (in 2011 house prices bottomed in Phoenix).

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow.

According to Case-Shiller, Phoenix house prices bottomed in August 2011 (mostly flat for all of 2011), and then increased 23% in 2012, and another 15% in 2013.  Those large increases were probably due to investor buying, low inventory and some bounce back from the steep price declines in 2007 through 2010.  Now, with more inventory, price increases have flattened out in 2014.

As an example, the Phoenix Case-Shiller index through October shows prices up about 1% in 2014, and the Zillow index shows Phoenix prices up 2.5% over the last year.

December Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Dec-08	5,524	---	1,665	30.1%	53,7921	---
Dec-09	7,661	38.7%	3,008	39.3%	39,709	-26.2%1
Dec-10	8,401	9.7%	3,939	46.9%	42,463	6.9%
Dec-11	7,843	-6.6%	3,635	46.3%	24,712	-41.8%
Dec-12	7,071	-9.8%	3,211	45.4%	21,095	-14.6%
Dec-13	5,930	-16.1%	2,053	34.6%	25,511	20.9%
Dec-14	6,475	9.2%	1,893	29.2%	25,052	-1.8%
1 December 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 01:52:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the December seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the recession, falling to a low of 181 thousand in April 2009 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Since then sales have more than doubled and hit 446 thousand SAAR in August 2014.   Sales have declined a little since August, and were at 411 thousand SAAR in December.

The level in August was the highest level since February 2007 (over 7 years ago).  Sales are now above the average (and median) of the last 20 years.

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 10:28:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their November index data today.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values decreased slightly from October to November (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) also decreased slightly in November. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The year-over-year (YoY) change was lower in November than in October, with the 100-MSA composite up 5.2% compared to November 2013.   In general, for FNC, the YoY increase has been slowing since peaking in March at 9.0%.

The index is still down 19.7% from the peak in 2006.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through November 2014. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Most of the price indexes have been showing a slowdown in price increases.

The November Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, January 27th, and I expect Case-Shiller to show a further slowdown in YoY price increases.

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2015 08:11:00 AM

Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS) released their Mortgage Monitor report for November today. According to BKFS, 6.08% of mortgages were delinquent in November, up from 5.44% in October. BKFS reported that 1.63% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 2.50% in November 2013.

This gives a total of 7.71% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,925,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,163,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 829,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of ​​3,917,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in November. This is down from 4,497,000 in November 2013.

Black Knight had several comments on the "spike" in delinquencies in November:

• November’s spike in delinquencies was the largest month-over month increase (for any month) since November 2008

• Much of the increase seems to have been calendar-driven; two federal holidays (Veterans Day and Thanksgiving) and the last two days of the month being a weekend resulted in just 18 possible payment processing days

• The five largest M/M delinquency rate increases over the last 7 years have all occurred in months ending on a Sunday

If this was just seasonal (and calendar related), then delinquencies should decline solidly in December.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from Black Knight shows the number of loans rolling to a more delinquent status. There was a big spike from current to 30 days delinquent, and that should reverse if seasonal.

From Black Knight:

• Increased roll-rates were seen across all early stage delinquency categories (i.e., loans rolling from current status to 30-days delinquent, 30 to 60 days delinquent, etc.)

• November saw the highest one month count of loans rolling from current to 30-days delinquent since June 2013

• While early stage delinquent categories saw increased roll-rates, rolls from delinquent to foreclosure status were still down

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2015 08:40:00 PM

Professor Hamilton estimates almost half the decline in oil prices are due to demand factors: Demand factors in the collapse of oil prices

[O]f the $55 drop in the price of oil since the start of July, about $24, or 44%, seems attributable to broader demand factors rather than anything specific happening to the oil market. That’s almost the same percentage as when I performed the calculation using data that we had available a month ago.

So what’s been happening on the supply side of oil markets is important. But so is what’s been happening on the demand side.

Its important to remember that both the supply and demand curves for oil are very steep, so small changes in either supply or demand can cause large changes in price.

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET: The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 11, 2015

• Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 4 and DOW futures are down 25 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $47.69 per barrel and Brent at $49.58 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $93, and Brent was at $107 - so prices are down 49% and 54% year-over-year respectively.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $2.13 per gallon (down about $1.13 per gallon from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com