by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2014 08:34:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.7% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.1% from November 2013. Sales in October were revised up from 0.3% to 0.5%.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $449.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 5.1 percent above November 2013. ... The September to October 2014 percent change was revised from +0.3 percent to +0.5 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline increase 0.9%.

Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.5%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.0% on a YoY basis (5.1% for all retail sales).

The increase in November was above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase.  Both September and October were revised up.

This was a strong report.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2014 07:24:00 PM

Big stories today: Falling oil prices, possible budget deal, and Q3 GDP likely to be revised up.

On oil prices, from the WSJ: Oil Prices Tumble Amid Global Supply Glut

The benchmark U.S. oil price slid 4.5% to $60.94 a barrel, the lowest level since July 2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day drop since Nov. 28, the session that followed OPEC’s decision to maintain its oil-output target.

Brent crude, a gauge of global prices, fell 3.9%, or $2.60, to $64.24 a barrel, also the lowest since July 2009 on ICE Futures Europe.

On the budget, from Peter Orzag at Bloomberg: Don't Get Too Excited About the Budget Deal

Thanks to the spending bill that House and Senate leaders have negotiated, the federal government will avoid a shutdown. And that's great. Unfortunately, though, that’s the highest praise that can be attached to the deal.

It seems likely there won't be a shutdown. But that is a concern for 2015.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 296 thousand from 297 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for November will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.4% in November, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

• At 12:00 PM, Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2014 03:55:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in November.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (the Mid-Atlantic was unchanged).

Short sales are down significantly in these areas.

Foreclosures are up in Las Vegas and the Mid-Atlantic (working through the logjam).

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Nov-14	Nov-13	Nov-14	Nov-13	Nov-14	Nov-13	Nov-14	Nov-13
Las Vegas	9.5%	21.0%	8.7%	7.0%	18.2%	28.0%	32.8%	43.7%
Reno**	6.0%	17.0%	6.0%	6.0%	12.0%	23.0%
Phoenix							28.0%	34.0%
Minneapolis	3.1%	5.0%	10.2%	16.9%	13.4%	21.9%
Mid-Atlantic	4.7%	7.5%	11.0%	8.1%	15.7%	15.7%	19.1%	19.6%
Chicago (City)					20.2%	30.8%
Tucson							26.3%	32.2%
Toledo							35.4%	37.2%
Des Moines							19.3%	19.9%
Peoria							19.7%	21.8%
Georgia***							26.5%	N/A
Omaha							21.1%	21.6%
Memphis*			15.1%	20.5%
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2014 11:46:00 AM

From Reuters: U.S. services data point to upward revision to third-quarter GDP

Economists said the data suggested third-quarter consumer spending could be raised by at least two-tenths of a percentage point from a 2.2 percent annual rate when the government publishes its third estimate later this month.

That combined with data on wholesale inventories and construction spending could see third-quarter GDP revised up to a 4.4 percent annual pace from the 3.9 percent rate reported last month.

From the WSJ: U.S. Economic Growth Could Get Boost From Services Spending

J.P. Morgan Chase said Wednesday it expected the QSS will lead to stronger estimates for spending, raising the GDP growth rate to 4.4% from an earlier prediction of 4.3%. Barclays raised its GDP prediction for the third quarter to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Here is the Q3 Quarterly Services Press Release

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the estimate of U.S. information sector revenue for the third calendar quarter of 2014, adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, was $336.5 billion, an increase of 1.0 percent (± 0.8%) from the second quarter of 2014 and up 5.0 percent (± 0.8%) from the third quarter of 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 12/10/2014 09:31:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, and CoreLogic, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

FNC released their October index data today.  FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values decreased 0.1% from September to October (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) decreased between 0.1% and 0.3% in October. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

Notes: In addition to the composite indexes, FNC presents price indexes for 30 MSAs. FNC also provides seasonally adjusted data.

The year-over-year (YoY) change was lower in October than in September, with the 100-MSA composite up 5.7% compared to October 2013.   In general, for FNC, the YoY increase has been slowing since peaking in February at 9.0%.

The index is still down 19.6% from the peak in 2006.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change based on the FNC index (four composites) through October 2014. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

All of the price indexes have been showing a slowdown in price increases.

The October Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, December 30th, and I expect Case-Shiller to show a further slowdown in YoY price increases.