RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2014 07:23:00 PM
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey
Saturday, November 15th, was Doris "Tanta" Dungey's birthday. Happy Birthday T!
For new readers, Tanta was my co-blogger back in 2007 and 2008. She was a brilliant, writer - very funny - and a mortgage expert. Sadly, she passed away in 2008, and I like to celebrate her life on her birthday.
I strongly recommend Tanta's "The Compleat UberNerd" posts for an understanding of the mortgage industry. And here are many of her other posts.
On her passing, from the NY Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47, from the WaPo: Doris J. Dungey; Blogger Chronicled Mortgage Crisis, from me: Sad News: Tanta Passes Away
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 10.5, up from 6.2 in October (above zero is expansion).
• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.3%.
• Note: New York Fed to Publish Blog Series on Long-term Unemployment and Labor Market Slack
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 16th
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are down 4 and DOW futures are down 31 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $75.84 per barrel and Brent at $79.51 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $94, and Brent was at $107 - so prices are down more than 20% year-over-year.
Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $2.89 per gallon (down about 30 cents from a year ago). If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.
| Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com |
Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 415 Institutions
by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2014 08:11:00 AM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 14, 2014.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
Four removals this week from the Unofficial Problem Bank List that push the list count down to 415 institutions with assets of $128 billion. From last week, assets have declined by $3.9 billion, with $2.9 billion coming from the roll to Q3 from Q2 assets. A year ago, the list held 655 institutions with assets of $223.2 billion.CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now back down to 415.
Actions have been terminated against Community First Bank & Trust, Columbia, TN ($436 million) and Devon Bank, Chicago, IL ($239 million). Through a merger partner, Highlands Independent Bank, Sebring, FL ($251 million) and Grant County Deposit Bank, Williamstown, KY ($76 million) have found a way off the list.
Next week, we anticipate the OCC will provide an update on its latest enforcement action activity.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Schedule for Week of November 16th
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2014 12:12:00 PM
The key economic reports this week are October housing starts on Wednesday, and October existing home sales on Thursday.
For manufacturing, the October Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the November NY Fed (Empire State), Philly Fed and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.
For prices, PPI will be released on Tuesday and CPI on Thursday.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 10.5, up from 6.2 in October (above zero is expansion).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.3%.
Note: New York Fed to Publish Blog Series on Long-term Unemployment and Labor Market Slack
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.
10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 55, up from 54 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for October. Total housing starts were at 1.017 million (SAAR) in September. Single family starts were at 646 thousand SAAR in September.
The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.025 million (SAAR) in October.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: the FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of October 28-29, 2014
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 281 thousand from 290 thousand.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in CPI in October, and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.15 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in September were at a 5.17 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.28 million SAAR.
A key will be the reported year-over-year increase in inventory of homes for sale.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 18.5, down from 20.7 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2014
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.
Lawler: Preliminary Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in October
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2014 08:11:00 AM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in October.
On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales.
Short sales are down significantly in these areas.
Foreclosures are up slightly in several of these areas.
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct-14 | Oct-13 | Oct-14 | Oct-13 | Oct-14 | Oct-13 | Oct-14 | Oct-13 | |
| Las Vegas | 10.6% | 21.0% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 19.5% | 27.0% | 35.1% | 44.9% |
| Reno** | 6.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 3.7% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 27.7% | 31.6% |
| Sacramento | 6.1% | 13.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 19.6% | 20.6% | 23.9% |
| Minneapolis | 2.7% | 5.1% | 9.8% | 16.4% | 12.5% | 21.5% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 4.8% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 19.2% | 19.9% |
| California * | 6.1% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 17.0% | ||
| Bay Area CA* | 3.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 11.0% | ||
| So. California* | 5.9% | 10.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 17.1% | ||
| Hampton Roads | 19.7% | 25.5% | ||||||
| Northeast Florida | 30.0% | 38.2% | ||||||
| Toledo | 38.2% | 37.1% | ||||||
| Tucson | 26.8% | 32.1% | ||||||
| Des Moines | 18.8% | 20.2% | ||||||
| Peoria | 22.8% | 21.1% | ||||||
| Georgia*** | 27.8% | N/A | ||||||
| Pensacola | 33.5% | 33.7% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 13.3% | 19.8% | ||||||
| Birmingham AL | 15.2% | 21.0% | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS | ||||||||
Friday, November 14, 2014
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October
by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2014 04:22:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released so far this month, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.28 million, up 2.1% from September’s pace and up 2.9% from last October’s pace. My “best guess” is that the NAR’s estimate for the number of existing homes for sale at the end October will be down about 3% from September and up about 5.7% from last October. Finally, I “guesstimate” that the NAR’s estimate for the median existing SF home sales price in October will be up by about 4.4% from last October.
A few notes: first, not all realtor/MLS reports define “inventory” in the same way, and some of the publicly-released reports differ from reports sent to the NAR. These differences have made my NAR inventory estimates less reliable than my sales estimates. Second, lately the NAR median existing SF home sales prices have shown faster YOY growth than local realtor/MLS reports would have suggested, and in September the YOY increase in the median sales price in the Northeast was WAY higher than state realtor report would have indicated. I don’t know why.
I’ll update my estimate next week if newly-released realtor/MLS reports warrant an update.
CR Note: the NAR is scheduled to release October existing home sales next Thursday, The consensus is the NAR will report sales at a 5.10 million SAAR (the consensus will move up once this is posted!)
