by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2014 05:03:00 PM

From Freddie Mac: Fixed Mortgage Rates Hovering Near 2014 Lows

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates little changed from the previous week with the 30-year mortgage still hovering around 4 percent.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.01 percent with an average 0.5 point for the week ending November 13, 2014, down from last week when it averaged 4.02 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.35 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph of 30 year fixed mortgage rates - according to the PMMS® - for 2010 through 2014 (red).

Mortgage rates are lower this year than last year (blue), and at about the same level as in 2011.

Note: Looking at daily rates from Mortgage News Daily, 30 year rates are at 4.05% today, down from 4.46% one year ago. The MND data is based on actual lender rate sheets, and is mostly "the average no-point, no-origination rate for top-tier borrowers with flawless scenarios". (this tracks the Freddie Mac series very well).

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2014 02:14:00 PM

From DataQuick: San Francisco Bay Area Home Sales Edge Higher; Price Growth Ratchets Down Again

The Bay Area housing market posted another modest uptick in sales during October but activity remained below average as cash purchases continued to taper off and buyers faced a limited inventory as well as affordability and mortgage availability challenges. Home prices appear to have plateaued in recent months, although the October median sale price was still about 11 percent higher than a year earlier.

A total of 7,693 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area in October 2014. That was up 3.4 percent from 7,443 in September and up 1.3 percent from 7,595 in October 2013, according to CoreLogic DataQuick data..

A small gain in sales from September to October is normal for the season. The October sales count was the highest for that month since 7,902 homes sold in October 2012. October sales have ranged from a low of 5,486 in 2007 to a high of 13,392 in 2003. October 2014 sales were 9.7 percent below the October average of 8,521 sales since 1988, when CoreLogic DataQuick’s data began.
...
“After hitting what many view as a stratospheric level, Bay Area home prices have shown signs of leveling off,” said Andrew LePage, data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. “To some extent it’s the result of sticker shock and a modest pickup in inventory."
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 2.7 percent of resales in October, down from a revised 2.8 percent the month before, and down from 3.7 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average since 1995 is 9.7 percent. Foreclosure resales are homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 3.5 percent of Bay Area resales in October. That was down from an estimated 3.8 percent in September and down from 7.3 percent in October 2013.
emphasis added

A few key year-over-year trends: 1) declining distressed sales (can't decline much further!), 2) generally declining investor buying, 3) mostly flat total sales (up 1.3% year-over-year in October), 4) an increase in non-distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2014 12:27:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 8 November

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 2-8 November 2014, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy rose 3.5 percent to 66.2 percent. Average daily rate increased 5.4 percent to finish the week at US$117.48. Revenue per available room for the week was up 9.1 percent to finish at US$77.74.
emphasis added

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Business travel has peaked for the Fall season, and now hotels are heading into the slow period.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.  Purple is for 2000.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is solidly above the median for 2000-2007, and since mid-June, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate has been a little higher than for the same week in 2000.

Right now it looks like 2014 will be the best year since 2000 for hotels.  And since it takes some time to plan and build hotels, I expect 2015 will be even better for hotel occupancy.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2014 10:08:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 4.7 million job openings on the last business day of September, little changed from 4.9 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...
...
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. ... The number of quits increased from 2.5 million in August to 2.8 million in September. This was the highest level of quits since April 2008.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for October.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 4.735 million from 4.853 million in August.

The number of job openings (yellow) are up 20% year-over-year compared to September 2013.

Quits are up 16% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

This is a very positive report.  It is a good sign that job openings are over 4 million for the eight consecutive month, and that quits are increasing year-over-year - and at the highest level since April 2008.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2014 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 290,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 278,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 279,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was unrevised at 278,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 285,000.

This was higher than the consensus forecast of 275,000, but the level suggests few layoffs.