by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2014 08:50:00 AM

From Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko: What Home Price Slowdown? Some Markets Buck the Trend

Nationally, the month-over-month increase in asking home prices rose to 1.0% in October. Year-over-year, asking prices rose 6.4%, down from the 10.6% year-over-year increase in October 2013. Asking prices rose year-over-year in 91 of the 100 largest U.S. metros.

Nationally, year-over-year price gains have slowed from a year ago. In some markets, this price slowdown has been precipitous. In the most extreme case, Las Vegas prices rose 10.1% in October 2014 versus 31.9% in October 2013, a drop of 21.8 percentage points. Price gains have slowed by almost 20 percentage points in both Northern California (Sacramento, Oakland) and Southern California (Riverside-San Bernardino, San Diego) markets. Among the 10 markets with the largest price slowdowns, only one – Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, next to Detroit – is outside California or the Southwest.

Nationally, price gains have slowed in 60 of the 100 largest metros, although prices are actually falling year-over-year in only nine metros.

Nationally, rents rose 6.2% year-over-year in October. But in the markets where renters are stretched thinnest, rents are rising even faster. In Miami, Los Angeles, and New York, the median rent on a 2-bedroom unit equals more than half of the average monthly wage, and it’s nearly that much in Oakland and San Francisco. In all five of these least-affordable markets, rents rose 7.8% or more year-over-year.
emphasis added

Note: These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and although year-over-year price increases have slowed, the month-to-month increase suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a seasonally adjusted basis.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2014 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 287,000 to 288,000. The 4-week moving average was 279,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since April 29, 2000 when it was 273,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 281,000 to 281,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up to 288,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 279,000.

This was lower than the consensus forecast and suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2014 09:47:00 PM

From NDD: A little post-election-day economic balm

If Washington can simply manage to do absolutely nothing to the economy in the next two years, except to agree to pay already incurred debts (a/k/a lift the debt ceiling), then we are in the best position we have been in for nearly a decade for the economy by itself to improve the lot of the working and middle class appreciably.

Here's why:

• there is nothing in the long leading indicators to suggest that we are going to enter an economic downturn at any point in at least the next 9 months. If interest rates continue to drift lower and housing starts improve as a result, you can extend that forecast into 2016.

• continuing economic growth means continuing positive monthly jobs reports

• so long as there is positive jobs growth, and initial jobless claims stay at or near their current levels, the unemployment rate is going to continue to decline -- and that's not just the usual rate, but all the other variations on the unemployment rate as well.

• Because the unemployment rate should remain below 6.5% for the foreseeable future, that means that nominal wage growth, which has been improving for the last 18 months, will continue to improve further - i.e., to 2.5% YoY or 3.0% YoY.

• Also, incremental tightness in the labor market is going to mean that better paying jobs become an increasing share of employment - my hypothesis is that this recovery is no different from previous recoveries, where low wage jobs get added first, and higher wage jobs get added later. Like the expansion after the deep 1982 recession, there was so much slack that it took a long time for those higher paying jobs to show up. There is evidence from the last few jobs reports that it is beginning to happen.

• Unless there is a reversal in gas prices, this is going to mean significant real wage growth to the average working family.

In short, simply leaving the economy alone for the next 2 years is likely to mean a continued improvement in the jobs picture, and a significant improvement on the wage front. Or, if ever there was a time when laissez faire might be a perfectly decent policy, this point in the cycle is it.

Since Senator McConnell has already ruled out defaulting (Congress will raise the "debt ceiling") and another government shutdown, then doing next to nothing will probably be OK.

Thursday:
• Early: Trulia Price Rent Monitors for October. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 283 thousand from 287 thousand.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2014 03:01:00 PM

Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is for an increase of 240,000 non-farm payroll jobs in October (range of estimates between 200,000 and 282,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.9%.

The BLS reported 248,000 jobs added in September.

Here is a summary of recent data:

• The ADP employment report showed an increase of 230,000 private sector payroll jobs in October. This was above expectations of 212,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but in general, this suggests employment growth slightly above expectations.

• The ISM manufacturing employment index increased in October to 55.5%. A historical correlation between the ISM manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS manufacturing payroll jobs increased about 10,000 in October. The ADP report indicated a 15,000 increase for manufacturing jobs in October.

The ISM non-manufacturing employment index increased in October to 59.6%. A historical correlation (linear) between the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for non-manufacturing, suggests that private sector BLS non-manufacturing payroll jobs increased about 330,000 in October.  Note: There are only a couple of previous readings this high for the ISM non-manufacturing employment index - so this might be high.

Combined, the ISM indexes suggests employment gains of 340,000.

• Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged close to 287,000 in October, down from 295,000 in September. For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at 284,000; this was up from 281,000 during the reference week in September.

This suggests about the same low level of layoffs in October as in September.

• The final October Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 86,9 from the September reading of 84.6. This is frequently coincident with changes in the labor market, but there are other factors too - like sharply lower gasoline prices.

• On small business hiring: The small business index from Intuit showed a 15,000 increase in small business employment in October (up from 10,000 in September).

• Trim Tabs reported:

TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy added 314,000 jobs in October, up from 206,000 in September. ... TrimTabs’ employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from the paychecks of the 140 million U.S. workers subject to withholding.

• Conclusion: Below is a table showing several employment indicators and the initial BLS report (the first column is the revised employment). A few key points:

1) All but one of the revisions this year have been up (average about 21,000).

2) Unfortunately none of the indicators below is very good at predicting the initial BLS employment report.  

3) In general it looks like this should be another 200+ month (based on ADP, ISM, unemployment claims, and small business hiring).

There is always some randomness to the employment report.  And we have to remember that September employment was boosted by a one time factor (returning workers from a strike in August).
The consensus forecast is pretty strong, but I'll take the over again (above 240,000).

Employment Indicators (000s)
	BLS Revised	BLS Initial	ADP Initial	ISM	Weekly Claims Reference Week1	Intuit Small Business
Jan	144	113	175	236	329	10
Feb	222	175	139	-6	334	0
Mar	203	192	191	153	323	0
Apr	304	288	220	NA	320	25
May	229	217	179	130	327	35
Jun	267	288	281	NA	314	20
Jul	243	209	218	NA	303	15
Aug	180	142	204	285	299	0
Sep		248	213	NA	281	10
Oct		Friday	230	340	284	15
1Lower is better for Unemployment Claims

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2014 12:23:00 PM

From the US Court: Fiscal Year Bankruptcy Filings Lowest in Seven Years

Bankruptcy cases filed in federal courts for the fiscal year 2014—the 12-month period ending September 30, 2014—totaled 963,739, down 13 percent from the 1.1 million bankruptcy filings in FY 2013, according to statistics released today by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. This is the lowest number of bankruptcy filings for any 12-month period since 2007.

The number of filings for the fiscal year ending Sept 2014 were the lowest since 2007.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by year since 1987.

The sharp decline in 2006 and 2007 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

Other than 2007, this was the lowest level for filings since 1995. This is another indicator of an economy mostly recovered from the housing bust and financial crisis.