by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2014 12:31:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Unchanged in September

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was unchanged in September, following a gain of 1.6% the previous month. In September the index equaled 132.6 (2000=100), the same as in August and a record high.

Compared with September 2013, the SA index increased 3.7%, down from August’s 4.5% year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage is up 3.2%. ...

“September data was a mixed bag, with retail sales falling while factory output increased nicely,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “As a result, I’m not too surprised that truck tonnage split both of those readings and remained unchanged.”

“During the third quarter, truck tonnage jumped 2.4% from the second quarter and surged 4% from the same period last year,” Costello said. He also noted that the third quarter average was the highest on record.
...
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 69.1% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.7 billion tons of freight in 2013. Motor carriers collected $681.7 billion, or 81.2% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up 3.7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2014 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Hold Steady in September

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.3 percent to 105.0 in September from 104.7 in August, and is now 1.0 percent higher than September 2013 (104.0). The index is above 100 for the fifth consecutive month and is at the second-highest level since last September.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.2 percent to 87.5 in September, and is now 2.9 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 1.2 percent to 101.2 in September, and is now 4.0 percent below September 2013.

Pending home sales in the South increased 1.4 percent to an index of 118.5 in September, and is 1.7 percent above last September. The index in the West inched back 0.8 percent in September to 101.3, but is still 3.6 percent above a year ago.

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2014 08:01:00 AM

Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services (formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on August 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The Black Knight HPI is off 10.1% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).

The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last 11 months - as shown in the table below:

Month	YoY House Price Increase
Jan-13	6.7%
Feb-13	7.3%
Mar-13	7.6%
Apr-13	8.1%
May-13	7.9%
Jun-13	8.4%
Jul-13	8.7%
Aug-13	9.0%
Sep-13	9.0%
Oct-13	8.8%
Nov-13	8.5%
Dec-13	8.4%
Jan-14	8.0%
Feb-14	7.6%
Mar-14	7.0%
Apr-14	6.4%
May-14	5.9%
June-14	5.5%
July-14	5.1%
Aug-14	4.9%

The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.

Black Knight shows prices off 41.2% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.4% in Orlando, and 31.5% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, Nashville, TN and San Jose, CA.

Note: Case-Shiller for August will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2014 08:25:00 PM

From CNBC: U.S. gasoline cheapest in nearly four years -Lundberg survey

The average price of U.S. retail gasoline dropped 18 cents in the past two weeks to the lowest level in nearly four years, driven by a steep drop in oil prices, according to the latest Lundberg survey released on Sunday.

Prices fell 18 cents to an average of $3.08 per gallon for regular grade gasoline, according to the fortnightly survey conducted on Oct. 24, the lowest price since Dec. 2010.

Monday:
• Early, the Black Knight August House Price Index report

• At 10:00 AM ET, the Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October.

• During the day (Monday or Tuesday): Q3 NMHC Apartment Tightness Index.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 26th

• FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are up 3 and DOW futures are up about 35 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $81.18 per barrel and Brent at $86.13 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $97, and Brent was at $109 - so prices are down close to 20%  year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.05 per gallon (down about 25 cents from a year ago).  If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2014 11:16:00 AM

Earlier I posted FOMC statement previews from Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch economists. Here is what I expect on Wednesday:

• The FOMC will announce the end of QE3.

• The FOMC statement will be shorter. Here is the September statement (895 words). Last year, in September 2013, the statement had 798 words. Ten years ago, in September 2004, the statement had only 277 words.

• Since there is no press conference following the FOMC meeting this month, I don't expect any major changes to the FOMC statement - just the elimination of certain sections, and some wording changes.

• Possible wording changes include:

1) some upgrade to "significant underutilization of labor resources",

2) some concern about less inflation, perhaps changing the word "diminished" in the phrase "the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year" to "increased recently". Note: Earlier this year, when inflation picked up a little, Yellen said: "The CPI index has been a bit on the high side, but I think the data that we’re seeing is noisy." So the FOMC might be patient on inflation again and wait until December to make any wording changes.

3) The "considerable time" phrase will probably remain (although the sentence might be tweaked).

"The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
emphasis added

Note: I don't expect any change to this key sentence: "The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

The over/under on the word count is probably around 800 words, and I'll take the under!

For some general thoughts on the QE, see: A Few Comments on QE