RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2014 10:00:00 AM
Monday, October 27, 2014
NAR: Pending Home Sales Index increased 0.3% in September, up 1.0% year-over-year
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Hold Steady in September
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, inched 0.3 percent to 105.0 in September from 104.7 in August, and is now 1.0 percent higher than September 2013 (104.0). The index is above 100 for the fifth consecutive month and is at the second-highest level since last September.Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast increased 1.2 percent to 87.5 in September, and is now 2.9 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index decreased 1.2 percent to 101.2 in September, and is now 4.0 percent below September 2013.
Pending home sales in the South increased 1.4 percent to an index of 118.5 in September, and is 1.7 percent above last September. The index in the West inched back 0.8 percent in September to 101.3, but is still 3.6 percent above a year ago.
Black Knight: House Price Index up 0.1% in August, Up 4.9% year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2014 08:01:00 AM
Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.
From Black Knight: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 4.9 Percent Year-Over-Year
Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services (formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on August 2014 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.The Black Knight HPI is off 10.1% from the peak in June 2006 (not adjusted for inflation).
The year-over-year increases have been getting steadily smaller for the last 11 months - as shown in the table below:
| Month | YoY House Price Increase |
|---|---|
| Jan-13 | 6.7% |
| Feb-13 | 7.3% |
| Mar-13 | 7.6% |
| Apr-13 | 8.1% |
| May-13 | 7.9% |
| Jun-13 | 8.4% |
| Jul-13 | 8.7% |
| Aug-13 | 9.0% |
| Sep-13 | 9.0% |
| Oct-13 | 8.8% |
| Nov-13 | 8.5% |
| Dec-13 | 8.4% |
| Jan-14 | 8.0% |
| Feb-14 | 7.6% |
| Mar-14 | 7.0% |
| Apr-14 | 6.4% |
| May-14 | 5.9% |
| June-14 | 5.5% |
| July-14 | 5.1% |
| Aug-14 | 4.9% |
The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs.
Black Knight shows prices off 41.2% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 34.4% in Orlando, and 31.5% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). Prices are at new highs in Colorado and Texas (Denver, Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio metros). Prices are also at new highs in Honolulu, HI, Nashville, TN and San Jose, CA.
Note: Case-Shiller for August will be released tomorrow.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2014 08:25:00 PM
From CNBC: U.S. gasoline cheapest in nearly four years -Lundberg survey
The average price of U.S. retail gasoline dropped 18 cents in the past two weeks to the lowest level in nearly four years, driven by a steep drop in oil prices, according to the latest Lundberg survey released on Sunday.Monday:
Prices fell 18 cents to an average of $3.08 per gallon for regular grade gasoline, according to the fortnightly survey conducted on Oct. 24, the lowest price since Dec. 2010.
• Early, the Black Knight August House Price Index report
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.
• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October.
• During the day (Monday or Tuesday): Q3 NMHC Apartment Tightness Index.
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 26th
• FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently the S&P futures are up 3 and DOW futures are up about 35 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $81.18 per barrel and Brent at $86.13 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $97, and Brent was at $109 - so prices are down close to 20% year-over-year.
Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are around $3.05 per gallon (down about 25 cents from a year ago). If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.
| Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com |
FOMC: End of QE3, Shorter Statement
by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2014 11:16:00 AM
Earlier I posted FOMC statement previews from Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch economists. Here is what I expect on Wednesday:
• The FOMC will announce the end of QE3.
• The FOMC statement will be shorter. Here is the September statement (895 words). Last year, in September 2013, the statement had 798 words. Ten years ago, in September 2004, the statement had only 277 words.
• Since there is no press conference following the FOMC meeting this month, I don't expect any major changes to the FOMC statement - just the elimination of certain sections, and some wording changes.
• Possible wording changes include:
1) some upgrade to "significant underutilization of labor resources",
2) some concern about less inflation, perhaps changing the word "diminished" in the phrase "the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year" to "increased recently". Note: Earlier this year, when inflation picked up a little, Yellen said: "The CPI index has been a bit on the high side, but I think the data that we’re seeing is noisy." So the FOMC might be patient on inflation again and wait until December to make any wording changes.
3) The "considerable time" phrase will probably remain (although the sentence might be tweaked).
"The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored."
emphasis added
Note: I don't expect any change to this key sentence: "The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
The over/under on the word count is probably around 800 words, and I'll take the under!
For some general thoughts on the QE, see: A Few Comments on QE
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Schedule for Week of October 26th
by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2014 02:31:00 PM
The key report this week is Q3 GDP on Thursday.
There will be an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 on Wednesday.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October.
During the day (Monday or Tuesday): Q3 NMHC Apartment Tightness Index.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in durable goods orders.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August. Although this is the August report, it is really a 3 month average of June, July and August prices.This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the July 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 4.9% year-over-year increase in the National Index for August , down from 5.7% in July (consensus 5.8% increase in Comp 20). The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 5.7% year-over-year in August, and for prices to increase 0.1% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October. The consensus is for the index to increase to 87.2 from 86.0.
10:00 AM: Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Statement. The FOMC is expected to announce the end of QE3 asset purchases at this meeting.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2014 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q3.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 280 thousand from 283 thousand.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 60.0, down from 60.5 in September.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 86.4, unchanged from the preliminary reading of 86.4, and up from the September reading of 84.6.
