by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2014 07:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 10, 2014. ...

The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 4 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ...
...
“Growing concerns about weak economic growth in Europe caused a flight to quality into US assets last week, leading to sharp drops in interest rates. Mortgage rates for most loan products fell to their lowest level since June 2013,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Chief Economist. “Refinance application volume reached the highest level since June 2014 as a result, with conventional refinance volume at its highest since February 2014.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.20 percent, the lowest since June 2013, from 4.30 percent, with points decreasing to 0.17 from 0.19 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Note: This mortgage rate is for the week ending Oct 10th; rates have fallen this week.

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index.

The refinance index is down 72% from the levels in May 2013.

Refinance activity is very low this year and 2014 will be the lowest since year 2000.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  

According to the MBA, the unadjusted purchase index is down about 4% from a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2014 08:51:00 PM

An amazing story from Bob Koslow as the Daytona Beach News Journal: In Ocean Hammock, dream house, ocean view, wrong lot (ht Walt)

Six months after building a large custom house with an ocean view, Missouri residents Mark and Brenda Voss learned of a big problem – it’s on the wrong lot.

Their three-story vacation rental house with an estimated construction value of $680,000 actually sits on the lot next to the one they own in the gated Ocean Hammock resort community.

Oops!

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to decrease 0.1% in September, and to increase 0.3% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 20.0, down from 27.5 in September (above zero is expansion).

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2014 07:11:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hit High 3's

Mortgage rates continued living the dream today, falling decisively past last week's lows to claim another instance of "best rates since June 2013." Today's move was exceptional compared to last week's (or just about any other move lower of 2014 for that matter). After heading into the weekend in relatively conservative territory, the bond markets that underlie mortgages were greeted with massive movement in broader financial markets over the 3-day weekend.

Some of that movement took place late on Friday--too late for rate sheets to experience much benefit--but most of it occurred in global bond markets during Asian and European trading overnight. Motivation varies depending who you ask, but the concept of "global growth concerns" is the common thread running through most of the reasons offered for the drop in rates.

Last week's best moments saw the most prevalently-quoted conforming 30yr fixed rates hover between 4.0 and 4.125% for top tier borrowers. Today's rates all but eliminated 4.125% from that list. In fact, 3.875% would now be more common than 4.125% (assuming a flawless loan file, 75% or lower Loan-to-Value, and a competitive lender). Rates haven't been any lower since the first half of June 2013.

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2014 04:15:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on realtor association/MLS reports across the country, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors will come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.14 million in September, up 1.8% from August’s pace but down 2.3% from last September’s pace.

Local realtor/MLS data suggest that the NAR’s inventory estimate for September will be down by about 3.0% from August, and up by about 3.2% from last September. Finally, I expect that the NAR’s median existing SF home sales price in September will be about 4.5% higher than last September.

Lawler also sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in September.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in these markets due to a decline in short sales.

Short sales are down in all these areas.

Foreclosures are up slightly in several of these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Sep-14	Sep-13	Sep-14	Sep-13	Sep-14	Sep-13	Sep-14	Sep-13
Las Vegas	10.4%	23.0%	8.8%	7.0%	19.2%	30.0%	34.3%	47.2%
Reno**	7.0%	20.0%	7.0%	5.0%	14.0%	25.0%
Phoenix	3.8%	8.8%	5.8%	8.0%	9.6%	16.8%	25.7%	33.4%
Sacramento	5.3%	12.1%	6.5%	3.9%	11.8%	16.0%	19.4%	23.6%
Minneapolis	3.4%	6.0%	9.4%	16.0%	12.8%	22.0%
Mid-Atlantic	5.5%	7.7%	9.7%	8.2%	15.2%	15.9%	19.1%	18.4%
Bay Area CA*	3.6%	7.5%	2.8%	3.6%	6.4%	11.1%	20.9%	23.3%
So. California*	6.0%	10.9%	4.7%	6.4%	10.7%	17.3%	24.3%	28.7%
Tucson							26.7%	29.8%
Hampton Roads					19.6%	26.1%
Toledo							31.4%	38.1%
Des Moines							16.8%	19.2%
Georgia***							27.4%	N/A
Omaha							19.9%	19.1%
Memphis*			11.7%	16.5%
Springfield IL**			9.5%	14.1%			22.6%	N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2014 01:35:00 PM

From DataQuick: Strongest September for Bay Area Home Sales in Five Years; Prices Flat

The number of homes sold in the Bay Area last month edged up to its highest level for a September since 2009, the result of some spillover summer activity and sustained demand in a strong regional economy. Prices appear to have flattened out at a level reached this spring, Irvine-based CoreLogic DataQuick reported.

A total of 7,443 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 1.8 percent from 7,578 in August and up 4.2 percent from 7,141 in September last year, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.

A decline in sales from August to September is normal for the season. Last month’s sales count was the highest for any September since 7,879 homes were sold in 2009.
...
“Some analysts are re-calculating what they consider to be normal sales levels, taking out the ‘loans-gone-wild’ years of over-available credit. And if you do that, current sales are right in the normal range. We still have issues today, though. The mortgage market is still dysfunctional. There are categories of buying and selling that are still inactive, and nobody really has any idea just how much pent-up demand there is out there,” said John Karevoll, CoreLogic DataQuick analyst.
...
Last month foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 2.8 percent of resales, unchanged from a revised 2.8 percent the month before, and down from 3.6 percent a year ago. Foreclosure resales in the Bay Area peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009, while the monthly average over the past 17 years is 9.7 percent, CoreLogic DataQuick reported.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 3.6 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 3.8 percent in August and down from 7.5 percent a year earlier.

Last month absentee buyers – mostly investors – purchased 19.1 percent of all Bay Area homes. That was up from August’s revised 18.6 percent, and down from 20.9 percent in September last year.
emphasis added

A few key year-over-year trends: 1) declining distressed sales, 2) generally declining investor buying, 3) generally flat total sales (up 4.2% year-over-year in September), 4) an increase in non-distressed sales.