by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2014 04:30:00 PM

Here is a minor indicator that I follow, from ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 1.6% in August to New Record High

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.6% in August, following a gain of 1.5% the previous month. In August, the index equaled 132.6 (2000=100) versus 130.5 in July. August’s index is the highest on record, surpassing November 2013 (131.0).

Compared with August 2013, the SA index increased 4.5%, up from July’s 3.7% year-over-year gain. The latest year-over-year increase was the largest this year. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage is up 3.1%. ...

“After a strong July, factory production and housing starts fell in August on a month-to-month basis,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “Truck tonnage actually did the opposite. Not only did it increase, it accelerated.”

Costello stated that tonnage is up 3.1% over the last two months alone and has surged 6.8% since hitting a recent low in January.

“I’m optimistic about the second half of the year for the economy, which means truck tonnage should do well too,” he said.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up 4.5% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2014 12:49:00 PM

Here is a new indicator that I'm following that appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Pace of Growth Slows for Leading Economic Indicator for Second Consecutive Month

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), continued to see an easing of growth this month, with a 0.1 percent gain over August as measured on a three-month moving average (3MMA). Growth for the third quarter stands at an average monthly gain of 0.2 percent compared to the strong 0.5 percent monthly average during the first half of the year. Despite the softening pace, the September CAB marked a string of consecutive gains going back to July 2012. Though the pace of growth has slowed, current gains have the CAB up a healthy 3.9 percent over this time last year, and the barometer remains at its highest level since January 2008. ...

Though the production indicator was flat in September, construction-related coatings, pigments and other performance chemistries remained strong, despite last week’s weak housing report. Chemical equities were up sharply this month, continuing to outpace the broader market. New orders and inventories improved in September but at a slower pace than earlier months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).

And this suggests continued growth.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2014 10:03:00 AM

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Sector Activity Grew Moderately; Employment Improved, Average Wages Edged Down

Overall, manufacturing conditions strengthened in September. The composite index for manufacturing moved to a reading of 14 following last month's reading of 12. The index for shipments edged up one point, ending at 11, while the index for new orders also gained one point, finishing at a reading of 14. ...

Manufacturing employment picked up this month; the September index advanced six points ending at 17. The average workweek lengthened, moving the index up two points to end at 10. However, average wages slowed somewhat compared to a month ago, with that index ending two points below the previous month at 9.

Producers remained positive about business conditions for the six months ahead. They expected solid growth in shipments and in the volume of new orders. The indexes for expected shipments and new orders ended at readings of 41 and 37, respectively, slightly below their outlook of a month ago.
emphasis added

Another solid regional manufacturing report for September.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2014 09:14:00 AM

This house price index is only for houses with Fannie or Freddie mortgages. Note: There is also a quarterly expanded index that was up 5.8% year-over-year in Q2.

 From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Rises in July

U.S. house prices rose in July, up 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) monthly House Price Index (HPI). The previously reported 0.4 percent increase in June was revised to reflect a 0.3 percent increase.

The FHFA HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages either sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. From July 2013 to July 2014, house prices were up 4.4 percent. The U.S. index is 6.4 percent below its April 2007 peak and is roughly the same as the July 2005 index level. This is the eighth consecutive monthly house price increase.

For the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from June 2014 to July 2014 ranged from -0.5 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +0.4 percent in the East North Central division. The 12-month changes were all positive ranging from +1.6 percent in the Middle Atlantic division to +7.2 percent in the Pacific division.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2014 08:41:00 PM

I use the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) to track mortgage rates. The PMMS series started in 1971, so there is a fairly long historical series.

For daily rates, the Mortgage News Daily has a series that tracks the PMMS very well, and is usually updated daily around 3 PM ET. The MND data is based on actual lender rate sheets, and is mostly "the average no-point, no-origination rate for top-tier borrowers with flawless scenarios". (this tracks the Freddie Mac series).

MND reports that average 30 Year fixed mortgage rates decreased today to 4.22% from 4.24% on Friday.

One year ago, on Sept 22, 2013, rates were at 4.45%.   In 2013, mortgage rates increased rapidly in June, and that led to slower existing home sales later in the year. Sales were still high in July and August - following the rate increase - because borrowers had locked in mortgage rates.

 This year, rates have been mostly moving sideways over the last few months - so sales probably won't be negatively impacted by mortgage rates like last year - and existing home sales will probably be up a little year-over-year later this year.

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates