by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2014 08:30:00 AM

The key reports this week are the 2nd estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday, April Personal Income and Outlays on Friday, and March Case-Shiller house prices on Tuesday.

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released.

The FDIC Q1 Quarterly Banking Report is expected to be released during the week.

----- Monday, May 26th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

----- Tuesday, May 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. Although this is the March report, it is really a 3 month average of January, February and March.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through February 2014 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 11.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for March. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 11.9% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.8% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May. The consensus is for the index to increase to 83.0 from 82.3.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.  The consensus is for a reading of 9, up from 7 in April.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for May. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May.

----- Wednesday, May 28th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, May 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 317 thousand from 326 thousand.

8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP decreased 0.6% annualized in Q1, revised down from the advance estimate of a 0.1% increase.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 1% increase in the index.

----- Friday, May 30th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May. The consensus is for a decrease to 61.0, down from 63.0 in April.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 82.5, up from the preliminary reading of 81.8, but down from the April reading of 84.1.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2014 09:48:00 PM

Excerpt from Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius research: Sticking with Stronger

We currently estimate that real GDP fell -0.7% (annualized) in the first quarter, versus a December consensus estimate of +2½%. On the face of it, this is a large disappointment. It raises the question whether 2014 will be yet another year when initially high hopes for growth are ultimately dashed.

Today we therefore ask whether our forecast that 2014-2015 will show a meaningful pickup in growth relative to the first four years of the recovery is still on track. Our answer, broadly, is yes. Although the weak first quarter is likely to hold down real GDP for 2014 as a whole, the underlying trends in economic activity are still pointing to significant improvement.
...
The basic rationale for our acceleration forecast of late 2013 was twofold—(1) an end to the fiscal drag that had weighed on growth so heavily in 2013 and (2) a positive impulse from the private sector following the completion of the balance sheet adjustments specifically among US households. Both of these points remain intact.

I also remain optimistic that growth will pickup - I touched on this in February: Reasons for a 2014 Pickup in Economic Growth Intact

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2014 05:19:00 PM

From the FDIC: United Fidelity Bank, fsb, Evansville, Indiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Columbia Savings Bank, Cincinnati, Ohio

As of March 31, 2014, Columbia Savings Bank had approximately $36.5 million in total assets and $29.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $5.3 million. ... Columbia Savings Bank is the eighth FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Ohio.

A bank failure two weeks in a row ... that hasn't happened recently.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2014 03:04:00 PM

Here are two graphs I haven't posted for some time ...

As part of the new home sales report, the Census Bureau reported the number of homes sold by price and the average and median prices.

From the Census Bureau: "The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2014 was $275,800; the average sales price was $320,100."

The following graph shows the median and average new home prices.

Click on graph for larger image.

During the bust, the builders had to build smaller and less expensive homes to compete with all the distressed sales. With fewer distressed sales now, it appears the builders have moved to higher price points.

The average price in April 2014 was $320,100, and the median price was $275,800.  Both are above the bubble high (this is due to both a change in mix and rising prices).

The second graph shows the percent of new homes sold by price. At the peak of the housing bubble, almost 40% of new homes were sold for more than $300K - and over 20% were sold for over $400K.

The percent of home over $300K declined to about 20% in January 2009. Now it has rebounded to almost 45% of homes over $300K.

And less than 5% of homes sold were under $150K in April 2014.  This is down from 30% in 2002 - and down from 20% as recently as August 2011.  Quite a change.

Earlier on New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales increase to 433,000 Annual Rate in April
• Comments on the New Home Sales report

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2014 12:03:00 PM

The Census Bureau reported that new home sales this year, through April, were 148,000, Not seasonally adjusted (NSA). That is down 2.6% from 152,000 during the same four months in 2013 (NSA).

This disappointing start to the year is probably mostly due to higher mortgage rates and higher prices. Mortgage rates were at 3.45% in April 2013 and increased to 4.34% in April 2014.  Also there were probably supply constraints in some areas and credit remains difficult for many potential borrowers.

Note: There was a sharp increase in sales in the Midwest region in April, and that appears to be a bounce back from the severe weather.   In the Midwest, sales during the first four months are now essentially flat with the same period in 2013.

Maybe sales will move sideways for a little longer, but remember early 2013 was a difficult comparison period. Annual sales in 2013 were up 16.3% from 2012, but sales in the first four months of 2013 were up 26% from the same period in 2012!

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows new home sales for 2013 and 2014 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

The comparisons to last year will be a little easier in a few months - especially in Q3 - and I still expect to see solid year-over-year growth later this year.

And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting several years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next few years.

The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through April 2014. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s.

Following the housing bubble and bust, the "distressing gap" appeared mostly because of distressed sales.

I expect existing home sales to decline some more or move sideways (distressed sales will slowly decline and be partially offset by more conventional / equity sales).  And I expect this gap to slowly close, mostly from an increase in new home sales.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.