RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2014 01:02:00 PM
Saturday, May 17, 2014
Schedule for Week of May 18th
The key reports this week are April Existing Home Sales on Thursday and April New Home sales on Friday.
For manufacturing, the May Kansas City Fed survey will be released.
No economic releases scheduled.
No economic releases scheduled.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
11:30 AM, Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks, Commencement Remarks, At the New York University Commencement, New York, New York
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of April 29-30, 2014.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 310 thousand from 297 thousand.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.67 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in March were at a 4.59 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.70 million SAAR.
As always, a key will be inventory of homes for sale.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.
The consensus is for an in increase in sales to 420 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April from 384 thousand in March.
Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 502 Institutions
by Calculated Risk on 5/17/2014 08:53:00 AM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 16, 2014.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
As expected, the OCC provided an update on its recent enforcement action activity and the FDIC shuttered a bank this Friday. In all, there were seven removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List leaving it at 502 institutions with assets of $161.2 billion. A year ago, the list held 770 institutions with assets of $284.1 billion.
Actions were terminated against Modern Bank, National Association, New York, NY ($678 million); American Bank and Trust Company, National Association, Davenport, IA ($368 million); Provident Community Bank, National Association, Rock Hill, SC ($323 million Ticker: PCBS); First Texoma National Bank, Durant, OK ($155 million); Mission Oaks National Bank, Temecula, CA ($96 million Ticker: MOKB); and Treasure State Bank, Missoula, MT ($66 million Ticker: TRSU).
AztecAmerica Bank, Berwyn, IL ($66 million) was the seventh bank failure this year. Since the on-set of the Great Recession, there have been 58 bank failures in Illinois, which only trails the 87 failures in Georgia and 70 failures in Florida.
Most likely, the FDIC will provide an update on its recent enforcement action activity in two weeks. Moreover, they will likely release industry results for the first quarter and refreshed problem bank list figures that week as well.
Friday, May 16, 2014
Bank Failure #7 in 2014: AztecAmerica Bank, Berwyn, Illinois
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2014 07:18:00 PM
From the FDIC: Republic Bank of Chicago, Oak Brook, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of AztecAmerica Bank, Berwyn, Illinois
As of December 31, 2013, AztecAmerica Bank had approximately $66.3 million in total assets and $65.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $18.0 million. ... AztecAmerica Bank is the seventh FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Illinois.The FDIC is back to work! At the current pace, the number of failures this year will be the lowest since 2007 (when 3 banks failed).
Lawler: Updated Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2014 06:28:00 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for selected cities in April.
Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets, mostly because of a sharp decline in short sales.
Foreclosures are down in most of these areas too, although foreclosures are up in the mid-Atlantic area, Orlando and Las Vegas (there was a state law change that slowed foreclosures dramatically in Nevada at the end of 2011 - so it isn't a surprise that foreclosures are up a little year-over-year).
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. This is the opposite of recent media reports that the cash share increased year-over-year (obviously doesn't fit this data).
In general it appears the housing market is slowly moving back to normal.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-14 | Apr-13 | Apr-14 | Apr-13 | Apr-14 | Apr-13 | Apr-14 | Apr-13 | |
| Las Vegas | 12.4% | 32.5% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 23.8% | 42.5% | 41.4% | 59.3% |
| Reno** | 15.0% | 33.0% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 21.0% | 41.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 4.0% | 12.7% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 24.1% | 32.2% | 42.0% |
| Sacramento | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 23.1% | 17.0% | 31.9% | 21.9% | 37.2% |
| Minneapolis | 5.0% | 7.4% | 15.9% | 24.0% | 20.9% | 31.4% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 5.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 15.9% | 18.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| Orlando | 9.1% | 21.2% | 23.7% | 20.5% | 32.9% | 41.8% | 42.4% | 54.8% |
| California * | 5.5% | 16.1% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 29.6% | ||
| Bay Area CA* | 3.8% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 20.2% | 22.9% | 28.3% |
| So. California* | 5.4% | 16.6% | 5.9% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 29.0% | 26.7% | 34.4% |
| Hampton Roads | 24.4% | 27.8% | ||||||
| Northeast Florida | 38.1% | 39.5% | ||||||
| Toledo | 33.4% | 40.3% | ||||||
| Des Moines | 17.1% | 19.6% | ||||||
| Peoria | 21.2% | 24.4% | ||||||
| Tucson | 30.5% | 33.5% | ||||||
| Omaha | 22.3% | 17.4% | ||||||
| Pensacola | 35.6% | 34.5% | ||||||
| Georgia*** | 34.3% | NA | ||||||
| Houston | 6.1% | 10.4% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 16.6% | 24.7% | ||||||
| Birmingham AL | 16.8% | 24.1% | ||||||
| Springfield IL** | 13.2% | 14.4% | ||||||
| Georgia*** | 34.3% | N/A | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS | ||||||||
Lawler: Early look at Existing Home Sales in April
by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2014 04:19:00 PM
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Based on realtor association/board/MLS reports across the country, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors will come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.70 million in April, up 2.4% from March’s pace, but down 5.8% from last April’s pace. This modest rebound is not just weather-related – e.g., home sales in California, while down from a year ago, showed a larger-than-the-seasonal norm increase from March to April. Many areas hard hit by weather, in contrast, didn’t see much of a bounce in sales, reflecting very weak contract activity during the past few months.
I also estimate that the NAR’s median existing home sales price estimate for April will be up 6.7% from last April’s MSP. The YOY increase in March was 7.4%.
On the inventory front, publicly-available realtor/MLS reports combined with data from various listings trackers would suggest that existing homes for sale in April were up about 6% from March. However, as I have noted in the past, NAR data has consistently shown larger March-to-April inventory increases than publicly-available reports would suggest. I’m not sure why, but it may be related to the timing of “pull-dates” for the official “NAR Reports” that various realtor groups/MLS send directly to the NAR. As a reminder, here is what I wrote last May ahead of the April existing home sales report.
“On the inventory side, all entities tracking residential listings show a decent-sized increase in national listings from March to April, and local realtor reports suggest a gain as well – probably in the range of about 4%. However, for many years the NAR’s reported inventory gain in April has substantially exceeded that suggested by those who track residential listings, for reasons not readily apparent but that may reflect the timing of “pull-dates” by MLS in the NAR’s sample. Adjusting for this “observation,” my “best guess” is that the NAR’s existing home inventory number in April will be up 8.8% from March, and down 16.0% from last April.” (LEHC, May 15, 2013).Current NAR estimates show a monthly jump in the inventory of existing homes for sales from March 2013 to April 2013 of 11.4%.
Realtor/MLS reports as well as “listing-tracker” reports indicate that the monthly increase in listings this April was in aggregate larger than last April, and a “reasonable guesttimate” would be that the NAR’s inventory number for April would be about 2.26 million, up 13.6% from March and up 5.1% from last April.
CR Note: The NAR will report April existing home sales next Thursday, May 22nd. The consensus forecast is for the NAR to report sales of 4.67 million SAAR.
