by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2013 03:11:00 PM

Another update on hotels from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 10 August

In year-over-year comparisons, occupancy rose 1.9 percent to 72.7 percent, average daily rate increased 4.8 percent to US$112.48 and revenue per available room grew 6.8 percent to US$81.74.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to normal levels.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2013, yellow is for 2012, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

Through August 10th, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly higher than the same period last year and is tracking the pre-recession levels.  This is probably the high for the 4-week average of the occupancy rate.  The occupancy rate will decrease over the next several weeks as the summer travel season ends - however, overall, this has been a decent year for the hotel industry.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2013 09:45:00 AM

Last week I posted an animation of the age and distribution of the U.S. population over time. The animations used actual data from 1900 to 2010, and Census Bureau projection from 2015 through 2060.

I mentioned that the ratio of total Americans in the prime working age will be about the same in 2060 as in 1900. The graph below shows the percent of population in the prime working age from 1900 to 2060 (I used two definitions of prime working age "25 to 54" and "25 to 59". Over time, the prime working age has expanded to included the "55 to 59" age group (red line).

Of course in the 1900s, the non-prime working age was mostly children, and in the 2000s, the non-prime working age will be more evenly split between children and the elderly. This table shows the percent of the population under 25, 25 to 54, and over 55.

Percent of U.S. Population by Age selected Decades
	1900	2000	2060
Under 25 Years Old	54.0%	35.3%	29.6%
Percent 25 to 54 Years Old	36.6%	43.6%	37.3%
Percent 55+ Years Old	9.4%	21.1%	33.1%

Click on graph for larger image.
The blue line is the percent of the total population in the 25 to 54 age group. The red line is for 25 to 60.

The prime working age has shifted over time. In 1900, the prime working age probably included the 20 to 24 age group, and maybe even many people in the 16 to 19 age group. By 2060, the prime working age may expand to 25 to 64.

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2013 01:41:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for August 16, 2013.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC was busy this past month mostly terminating a number of enforcement actions. They were responsible for five of the seven terminations this week and the sole addition. After these changes, the Unofficial Problem Bank List holds 717 institutions with assets of $253.9 billion. A year ago, the list held 899 institutions with assets of $347.5 billion.

Actions were terminated against Citizens Union Bank of Shelbyville, Shelbyville, KY ($547 million); First Federal Savings and Loan Association of McMinnville, McMinnville, OR ($352 million); First National Bank of the Rockies, Grand Junction, CO ($318 million); Bank of Virginia, Midlothian, VA ($230 million Ticker: BOVA); Franklin Community Bank, National Association, Rocky Mount, VA ($179 million); The First National Bank of Polk County, Cedartown, GA ($156 million Ticker: SCSG); and Ripley Federal Savings Bank, Ripley, OH ($67 million).

The addition this week was Ponce de Leon Federal Bank, Bronx, NY ($760 million).

There is no news to pass along on Capitol Bancorp, Ltd. and the remaining banks they control. Next week the FDIC may release industry quarterly performance for the second quarter and the Official Problem Bank figures. At the first quarter release, the difference between the official and unofficial count was 149 but it has been narrowing after peaking at 185 a year ago. This quarter, it is estimated the difference has narrowed further to around 135. With there being two more Fridays in the month, it is likely the FDIC will wait until the second Friday to release their enforcement action activity through July 2013.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now back down to 717.

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2013 08:51:00 AM

The key reports this week are July existing home sales on Wednesday, and July new home sales on Friday.

The Kansas City Fed will host the annual Jackson Hole symposium from Thursday through Saturday. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will not be attending, although the likely next Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be attending but not speaking.

----- Monday, August 19th -----
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2013

----- Tuesday, August 20th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Wednesday, August 21st -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.13 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in June were at a 5.08 million SAAR.   Economist Tom Lawler is estimating the NAR will report a July sales rate of 5.33 million.

A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for Meeting of July 30-31, 2013.

----- Thursday, August 22nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 329 thousand from 320 thousand last week.

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash for August. The consensus is for an increase to 53.5 from 53.2 in July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for June 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. The consensus is for a reading of 5 for this survey, down from 6 in July (Above zero is expansion).

----- Friday, August 23rd -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the June sales rate.

The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 487 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in July from 497 thousand in June. Based on the homebuilder reports, there will probably be some downward revisions to sales for previous months.

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2013 10:04:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for June since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 0.5% in July, and outbound traffic flat, compared to the rolling 12 months ending in June (percentage change corrected).

In general, inbound traffic has been increasing slightly, and outbound traffic has been declining slightly.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

This suggests an increase in the trade deficit with Asia for July.