by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2013 09:16:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April ("April" is a 3 month average of February, March and April prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Prices Set Record Monthly Rise in April 2013 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through April 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed average home prices increased 11.6% and 12.1% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in the 12 months ending in April 2013. From March to April, the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 2.6% and 2.5%.

All 20 cities and both Composites showed positive year-over-year returns for at least the fourth consecutive month. Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit and Minneapolis posted their highest annual gains since the start of their respective indices. On a monthly basis, all cities with the exception of Detroit posted positive change.

“The 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest monthly gains in the history of S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Thirteen cities posted monthly increases of over two percentage points, with San Francisco leading at 4.9%."

For the month of April, 19 of the 20 cities showed positive returns; Detroit was the only MSA to remain flat. Compared to March 2013, thirteen cities showed improvement with Minneapolis showing the largest change with a gain of 2.9% compared to its March return of -1.1%. California is seeing impressive returns all around with gains ranging from 3.4% to 4.9%. Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco posted their highest gains since 2004, 1988 and 1987, respectively. Looking at the east coast, Miami showed its largest return, 2.4%, in seven and a half years.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 25.6% from the peak, and up 1.7% in April (SA). The Composite 10 is up 12.8% from the post bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 24.8% from the peak, and up 1.7% (SA) in April. The Composite 20 is up 13.5% from the post-bubble low set in Jan 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 11.6% compared to April 2012.

The Composite 20 SA is up 12.1% compared to April 2012. This was the eleventh consecutive month with a year-over-year gain and this was the largest year-over-year gain for the Composite 20 index since 2006.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 52.6% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs.

This was above the consensus forecast for a 10.9% YoY increase. I'll have more on prices later.

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2013 07:32:00 AM

According to the First Look report for May to be released today by Lender Processing Services (LPS), the percent of loans delinquent decreased in May compared to April, and declined about 12% year-over-year. Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in May and were down almost 27% over the last year.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 6.08% from 6.21% in April. Note: the normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 3.05% in May from 3.17% in April. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down about 13% year-over-year (452,000 fewer properties delinquent), and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 27% or 585,000 properties year-over-year.

The percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process is still high, but declining fairly quickly.

LPS will release the complete mortgage monitor for May in early July.

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	May 2013	Apr 2013	May 2012
Delinquent	6.08%	6.21%	7.20%
In Foreclosure	3.05%	3.17%	4.12%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,708,000	1,717,000	1,924,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,335,000	1,394,000	1,571,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	1,525,000	1,588,000	2,111,000
Total Properties	4,569,000	4,699,000	5,605,000

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2013 09:26:00 PM

Plenty of data tomorrow ...

Tuesday:
• Early: LPS "First Look" at May mortgage performance data. Expect further declines in delinquencies and foreclosures.

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.3% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April. The consensus is for a 10.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for December. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 12.1% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 1.7% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• Also at 9:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for April 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, the New Home Sales report for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 460 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in May from 454 thousand in April.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 75.0 from 76.2.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. The consensus is for a reading of 2 for this survey, up from minus 2 in May (above zero is expansion).

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2013 06:29:00 PM

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'm tracking inventory weekly in 2013. 

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for May).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year (to normalize the data).

In 2010 (blue), inventory increased more than the normal seasonal pattern, and finished the year up 7%. However in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

So far in 2013, inventory is up 16.9%, and I expect further increases over the next few months.

Inventory is well above the peak percentage increases for 2011 and 2012 and this suggests to me that inventory is near the bottom. It now seems likely - at least by this measure - that inventory bottomed early this year. 

It is important to remember that inventory is still very low, and is down 14.3% from the same week last year according to Housing Tracker.  Once inventory starts to increase (more than seasonal), I expect price increases to slow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2013 04:56:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

By request - following the recent sell-off - here are a couple of stock market graphs. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).

The dashed line is the closing price today. The market is only up 10.3% year-to-date.

The second graph (click on graph for larger image) is from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...