by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2013 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 352,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 348,000. The 4-week moving average was 361,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 358,500.

The previous week was revised up from 346,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 361,250 - the highest level since January.

Weekly claims were above the 347,000 consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2013 09:07:00 PM

Oh my ... from the NY Times DealBook: Mortgage Relief Checks Go Out, Only to Bounce

The first round of the settlement checks were mailed last week. In recent days, problems arose at Rust Consulting, a firm chosen to distribute the checks, people briefed on the matter said. After collecting the $3.6 billion from the banks, these people said, Rust failed to move the money into a central account at Huntington National Bank in Ohio, the bank that issued the checks to homeowners.
...
“It’s the perfect ending for such a debacle,” said Michael Redman, a paralegal who runs 4closurefraud.org ...

I think this fits, Stephen Colbert on smoking pot: "If kids want to grow up, break the law, and not suffer any consequences ... they should go into banking!"

Thursday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 347 thousand from 346 thousand last week. The "sequester" budget cuts might be starting to impact weekly claims.

• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of minus 3.3, up from 2.0 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

• At 1:00 PM, Speech by Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, Reflections on Inequality and the Recent Business Cycle, At the 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies, New York, New York

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2013 04:03:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on the limited amount of local realtor reports I’ve seen, I estimate that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.89 million in March, down from February’s preliminary seasonally adjusted pace, and up 9.6% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace. I estimated that unadjusted sales last month were up 6.3% from last March, and that the lower day count will result in a lower seasonal factor this March vs. last March.

I should note that even after getting many of the late realtor reports for February, my methodology shows a smaller YOY increase in unadjusted existing home sales than that shown in last month’s NAR report – suggesting either an “issue” with my methodology or an “issue” with the NAR’s February report.

Based on the wide sample of realtor reports I have for February, I would have estimated that unadjusted existing home sales this February were about 4.4% higher than last February’s pace. The NAR, in contrast, reported a YOY gain of 6.3% -- with existing SF home sales showing a YOY increase of 4.4% but existing condo/co-op sales showing a puzzling high YOY gain of 20.0%, with condo sales in the South showing a YOY increase of 29.4%.   In addition, the NAR reported a monthly increase in the inventory of existing condos/coops for sale of 33.5%, driven by reported “months’ supply” combined with the huge jump in sales. These condo/coop sales and inventory numbers seem “off” to me, but I might be off as well.

CR Note: The NAR will report March existing home sales next Monday, April 22nd.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2013 02:00:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before April 5, 2013."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest overall economic activity expanded at a moderate pace during the reporting period from late February to early April. ...

Most Districts noted increases in manufacturing activity since the previous report. Particular strength was seen in industries tied to residential construction and automobiles, while several Districts reported uncertainty or weakness in defense-related sectors. Consumer spending grew modestly, and firms in some Districts cited higher gasoline prices, expiration of the payroll tax cut, and winter weather as factors restraining sales growth. Retailers in several Districts expect continued sales growth in the near term.

And on real estate:

Residential real estate activity continued to improve in most Districts, and some Districts, including Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco, noted increased momentum since the last report. The New York District, in particular, noted especially strong improvement in residential real estate—both in for-sale housing and apartment markets.

Home sales continued to rise in most Districts. Although homebuyer demand was high in the Boston District, low home inventories were restraining sales, keeping growth modest. Home sales were reportedly strong in both the Atlanta and Dallas Districts. The Richmond District noted low inventories were pushing up contracts to well above listing prices, and the Boston and New York Districts said multiple bids on properties have become more common. Tight inventories and strong sales led to rising home prices in many Districts, including Atlanta, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. Within the New York District, condo sales volumes strengthened and low inventories have begun to drive up selling prices in New York City and surrounding areas, while New Jersey home prices were rising modestly and inventories were shrinking with a marked reduction in the number of distressed properties. Contacts in the Boston District also noted a decline in the stock of distressed properties.

New home construction continued to pick up in most Districts, although the Richmond District said that a low supply of residential building materials had stalled construction. ...

Commercial real estate and construction activity improved in most Districts. Office vacancy rates declined in the Boston District and contacts said the construction of mixed-use projects was picking up. The New York District reported that office vacancy rates continued to decline and rents rose in Manhattan.

Residential real estate "continued to improve" and this was the most positive comment on commercial real estate in some time (but any "improvement" for commercial is from a very low level). This suggests moderate growth overall ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2013 10:12:00 AM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for March since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2% in March, and outbound traffic down slightly, compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.

In general, inbound traffic has been increasing slightly recently, and outbound traffic has been mostly moving sideways.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March. 

Sometimes the sharp seasonal decline happens in February, sometimes in March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. This year the sharp seasonal decline happened in March.

My guess is this suggests a decrease in the trade deficit with Asia for March.