by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2013 09:32:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in March after having increased 1.1 percent in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output moved up at an annual rate of 5.0 percent, its largest gain since the first quarter of 2012. Manufacturing output edged down 0.1 percent in March after having risen 0.9 percent in February; the index advanced at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the first quarter. Production at mines decreased 0.2 percent in March and edged down in the first quarter. In March, the output of utilities jumped 5.3 percent, as unusually cold weather drove up heating demand. At 99.5 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in March was 3.5 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry moved up in March to 78.5 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points above its level of a year earlier but 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2012) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 78.5% is still 1.7 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in March to 99.5. This is 18.8% above the recession low, but still 1.3% below the pre-recession peak.

The monthly change for both Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were above expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2013 08:43:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 7.0 percent above the revised February estimate of 968,000 and is 46.7 percent above the March 2012 rate of 706,000.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 619,000; this is 4.8 percent below the revised February figure of 650,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 392,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 902,000. This is 3.9 percent below the revised February rate of 939,000, but is 17.3 percent above the March 2012 estimate of 769,000.

Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 595,000; this is 0.5 percent below the revised February figure of 598,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 283,000 in March.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased sharply in March.

Single-family starts (blue) declined to 619,000 in March (Note: February was revised up sharply from 618 thousand to 650 thousand).

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been increasing after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

This was well above expectations of 930 thousand starts in March, mostly due to the sharp increase in multi-family starts - and the highest level since June 2008.  Starts in March were up 46.7% from March 2012; single family starts were up 28.7% year-over-year. Starts in February were revised up sharply. I'll have more later, but this was a strong report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2013 09:01:00 PM

From Annie Lowery at the NY Times: Europe Split Over Austerity as a Path to Growth

Economic fortunes during the recovery from the Great Recession have diverged, with new estimates of growth by the monetary fund expected on Tuesday. But they will not change the basic picture, which Ms. Lagarde has taken to describing as a “three-speed” world. Developing and emerging economies are growing apace. Some advanced economies, including the United States, are gaining strength.

But a third category of countries remains mired in stagnation or recession. Japan has struggled with a stalled-out economy, but has recently engaged in an athletic campaign of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The true laggard is Europe, suffering from rising unemployment and another bout of economic contraction — seemingly without the political consensus or economic mechanisms to tackle those problems.
...
In light of that reality, the monetary fund and its European partners, the European Commission and the European Central Bank — the so-called troika — have come under continued criticism for the austerity measures imposed on countries including Spain, Portugal and Greece, where unemployment rates extend well into the double digits. The criticism has become louder since the fund said it had determined that austerity had a far worse impact on weak economies than it once thought.

At least people are questioning the current policies in Europe.

Tuesday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 930 thousand (SAAR) in March, up from 917 thousand in February.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the BLS will release the Consumer Price Index for March. The consensus is no change in CPI in March (due to lower gasoline prices) and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:15 AM, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in March, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.3%.

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2013 05:29:00 PM

A sad day ... my thoughts are with the victims and the people of Boston.

As part of the commodity sell-off, oil prices were down again today (the price of gold is irrelevant for the economy, but oil matters). According to Bloomberg, WTI was down to $87.62 per barrel, and Brent was down to $100.39 per barrel.

According to Gasbuddy.com (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are down to a national average of $3.50 per gallon. Using the calculator from Professor Hamilton, and the current price of Brent crude oil, the national average should be around $3.35 per gallon. That is about 15 cents below the current level according to Gasbuddy.com, and I expect prices to fall further. The low for the year is in the $3.20s per gallon, and a year ago gasoline was at $3.90 per gallon.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2013 01:32:00 PM

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'm tracking inventory weekly this year.

In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year (to normalize the data).

In 2010 (blue), inventory mostly followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far - through April 15th - inventory is increasing faster than in 2011 and 2012.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

In 2010, inventory was up 15% by the end of March, and close to 20% by the end of April.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak and then declined for the remainder of the year.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 9.6% (above the peak percentage increase for 2011 and 2012).  It is possible that inventory could bottom this year - it will probably be close - but right now I expect inventory to bottom in early 2014.