by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 02:51:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Below are charts showing some historical data on residential properties under contract versus residential homes closed in Tucson, the mid-Atlantic region covered by MRIS, and Orlando. As the charts indicate, over the last few years home closings (closed sales) have been far below what one normally might have expected based on the pre-housing bust relationship between homes under contract and home closings. All of these areas have much higher share of outstanding contract with contingencies (including short sales pending lender approval) today than was the case five or six years ago.

CR Note: Tom makes an important point. I mention this every month when the NAR releases their existing home sales report: "The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, most "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005.   In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year."

I think active listings mostly impact price, but all the contingent and pending listings make it hard to compare "inventory" directly to earlier years.

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 11:17:00 AM

From Realtor.com: Realtor.com March data indicates that the amount of homes on the market showed a modest increase since February 2013

In March, the total number of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops for sale in the U.S. (1,529,432) increased by 2.36 percent month-over-month. On an annual basis, however, inventory decreased by 15.22 percent.

The median age of inventory of for sale listings fell to 78 days in March, down 20.41 percent from February and 12.35 percent below the median age one year ago (March 2012).

California continues to lead the list ... with largest year-over-year decline in for-sale inventories. Seattle is the only market outside of California in the top 10, and experienced a decline of 40.17 percent in for-sale inventories year-over-year. The 10 markets with the largest year-over-year declines in inventory are Stockton-Lodi, Sacramento, Orange County, Oakland, San Jose, Los Angeles-Long Beach, Ventura, San Diego, Riverside-San Bernardino and Seattle. Of the 146 markets realtor.com monitors, only nine experienced an increase in for-sale inventory.

Note: Realtor.com reports the average number of listings in a month, whereas the NAR uses an end-of-month estimate.

Inventory decreased year-over-year in 134 of the 146 markets realtor.com tracks,  and inventory decreased by 20% or more year-over-year in 55 markets.

The NAR is scheduled to report March existing home sales and inventory on Monday, April 22nd.

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 09:59:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April declined to 72.3 from the March reading of 78.6.

This was well below the consensus forecast of 79.0. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, default threats, etc).

Sentiment is mostly moving sideways at a fairly low level (with ups and downs).

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 08:49:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8% from March 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $418.3 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month, but 2.8 percent above March 2012. ... The January to February 2013 percent change was revised from +1.1 percent to +1.0 percent (±0.2%).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for January were revised down too.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.4%. Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.2%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 23.5% from the bottom, and now 10.4% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.3% on a YoY basis (2.8% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of no change in retail sales.  Lower gasoline prices subtracted from retail sales - after boosting sales in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 08:01:00 PM

Congratulations to Laura Fromme, the 2013 recipient of the Doris "Tanta" Dungey scholarship!

Click on picture for larger image.

Note: For new readers, Tanta was my co-blogger from from Dec 2006 through November 2008. Please see: Sad News: Tanta Passes Away, NY Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47 and much more at In Memoriam: Doris "Tanta" Dungey and on the scholarship.

Friday economic releases:
• 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in March (following the large increases in January and February), and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for March will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 9:55 AM, the preliminary Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for April will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 79.0, up from 78.6.

• At 10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

• At 12:30 PM, Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Creating Resilient Communities, At the 2013 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference, Washington, D.C.