by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 04:45:00 PM

From Freddie Mac today: Mortgage Rates Edge Down for Second Week

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates edging down for the second consecutive week following weak employment reports.

30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.43 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending April 11, 2013, down from last week when it averaged 3.54 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.88 percent.

15-year FRM this week averaged 2.65 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.74 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.11 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the MBA's refinance index (monthly average) and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.

The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971 and mortgage rates are currently near the record low for the last 40 years.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 01:53:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February will be released Tuesday, April 30th. Zillow has started forecasting the Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

Zillow Zillow Anticipates Strengthening Appreciation in February Case-Shiller Index

[W]e predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (February 2013) will show that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) increased 8.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) increased 8.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be 0.7 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.6 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will not be released until Tuesday, April 30.
...
To forecast the Case-Shiller indices we use past data from Case-Shiller, as well as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available more than a month in advance of Case-Shiller numbers, paired with foreclosure resale numbers, which we also have available more than a month prior to Case-Shiller numbers. ...

The ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for February 2013 up 5.8 percent from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to moderate in 2013, rising only 3.2 percent from February 2013 to February 2014. Further details on our forecast can be found here ...

Zillow also just released their city by city forecasts for the next year: Zillow Home Value Forecast for February 2014

The following table shows the Zillow forecast for February.

Zillow February Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
		Case Shiller Composite 10		Case Shiller Composite 20
		NSA	SA	NSA	SA
Case Shiller (year ago)	Feb 2012	146.64	149.46	134.09	136.98
Case-Shiller (last month)	Jan 2013	158.72	160.73	146.14	147.86
Zillow Forecast	YoY	8.0%	8.0%	8.9%	8.9%
	MoM	-0.2%	0.6%	-0.1%	0.7%
Zillow Forecasts1		158.4	161.4	146.0	149.0
Current Post Bubble Low		146.46	149.46	134.07	136.77
Date of Post Bubble Low		Mar-12	Feb-12	Mar-12	Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low		8.1%	8.0%	8.9%	9.0%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 11:58:00 AM

From a research note by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: The Rapidly Shrinking Federal Deficit

The federal budget deficit is shrinking rapidly. ...[I]n the 12 months through March 2013, the deficit totaled $911 billion, or 5.7% of GDP. In the first three months of calendar 2013--that is, since the increase in payroll and income tax rates took effect on January 1--we estimate that the deficit has averaged just 4.5% of GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is less than half the peak annual deficit of 10.1% of GDP in fiscal 2009.

There are three main reasons for the sharp reduction in the deficit:

1. Lower spending. On a 12-month average basis, federal outlays have fallen by a total of 4% in the past two years, the first decline in nominal dollar terms over a comparable period since the demobilization from the Korean War in the mid-1950s.

2. Higher tax rates. The increase in payroll tax rates in January 2013 has boosted federal receipts by around $120 billion (annualized), or about 0.8% of GDP.

3. Economic improvement. Although real GDP has only grown at a sluggish 2%-2.5% pace since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, this has been enough to generate a sizable improvement in tax receipts, over and above the more recent impact of higher tax rates. Even prior to the tax hike that took effect in early 2013, total federal receipts had grown by 7% (annualized) from the 2009 bottom, nearly twice the growth rate of nominal GDP.

We expect the deficit to continue to decline and are forecasting a deficit of 3% of GDP or less in fiscal 2015. Some of this is policy-related. ... But the more important reason, in our view, is that there is still a great deal of room for the economic recovery to reduce the deficit for cyclical reasons. ...

In our view, the most important implication from the reduction in the budget deficit for the near-term economic outlook is reduced pressure for further fiscal retrenchment. Partly for this reason, we expect the drag from fiscal policy on real GDP growth to decline sharply from around 2% of GDP in 2013 to around 0.5% in coming years. This is a key reason for our expectation that real GDP growth will accelerate from around 2% (annualized) in Q2/Q3 2013 to 3%-3.5% in 2014-2016.

It shocks people when I tell them the deficit as a percent of GDP is already close to being cut in half (this doesn't seem to ever make headlines). As Hatzius notes, the deficit is currently running under half the peak of the fiscal 2009 budget and will probably decline further over the next few years with no additional policy changes.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 358,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 355,000.

The previous week was revised up from 385,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 358,000 - the highest level since February.

Weekly claims were below the 365,000 consensus forecast.  

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2013 08:59:00 PM

An update on the California budget: Controller Releases March Cash Update

State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California's cash balance, receipts and disbursements in March 2013. Total revenues for the month were $395.5 million above (7.2 percent) estimates found in the Governor's proposed 2013-14 State budget.

Total revenues for the fiscal year through the end of March were $4.7 billion ahead of the Governor’s estimates.

“While the first nine months of revenue far exceeded expectation, income tax deposits over the next two weeks will show whether that uptick is solid or fleeting,” Chiang said. “The Governor and lawmakers have exercised discipline by waiting to make spending decisions until we can explain whether this surge reflects economic growth, or simply means that taxpayers paid their taxes earlier than usual.”

So far so good, although as Chiang noted, the next two weeks are worth watching to see if the "uptick is solid".  The Controller has a website showing daily income tax collections compared to last year ...

Thursday economic releases:
• 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 365 thousand from 385 thousand last week. The "sequester" budget cuts appear to be impacting weekly claims.