by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2013 04:44:00 PM

From Catherine Rampell at the NY Times: Surprise Demand for Housing Catches Industry Off-Guard. A few excerpts:

In 2005 [Beutler Corporation, an air-conditioning and plumbing company] employed 2,100 workers, but by 2009 Beutler had only 270 employees. [Rick Wylie, president of the Beutler Corporation], who currently employs about 550, is now having trouble luring back many workers he let go.

“I don’t mean to complain,” he said. “This is a good problem to have, a world-class problem, to not be able to find workers to do all the work you’re getting.”

The shortages aren’t limited to the workers toiling in the hot sun, either.

“You walk into the permit office, and it’s like a ghost town in there,” said Michael Haemmig, president of Haemmig Construction in Nevada City, Calif., about an hour north of Sacramento. He says local governments were caught off-guard by the suddenly renewed interest in building and do not have enough people in place to handle all the paperwork. ...

For builders still hesitant to dive into the market too deeply, such delays may actually be welcome, since they help buy more time for prices to rise further.

“If we could build 500 houses right now, could we sell them?” asked Harry Elliott III, president of Elliott Homes, a century-old company that built 250 homes last year and plans 350 this year, compared to a high of 1,400 in 2006. “Possibly, but I don’t want to sell all my lots that I’ve held onto forever and have to give them away at these prices.”

It is likely that homebuilding growth this year will be limited more by supply constraints than demand. Quite a change ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2013 02:19:00 PM

Bernanke press conference here or watch below.



Free desktop streaming application by Ustream

On the projections, GDP was revised down slightly, the unemployment rate was revised down, and inflation was revised down slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1	2013	2014	2015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections	2.3 to 2.8	2.9 to 3.4	2.9 to 3.7
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	2.3 to 3.0	3.0 to 3.5	3.0 to 3.7

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 7.7% in February. 

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2	2013	2014	2015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections	7.3 to 7.5	6.7 to 7.0	6.0 to 6.5
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	7.4 to 7.7	6.8 to 7.3	6.0 to 6.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The FOMC believes inflation will stay below target.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1	2013	2014	2015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections	1.3 to 1.7	1.5 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	1.3 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0	1.7 to 2.0

Here is core inflation:

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1	2013	2014	2015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections	1.5 to 1.6	1.7 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections	1.6 to 1.9	1.6 to 2.0	1.8 to 2.1

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2013 02:06:00 PM

Slight upgrade. Economic projections here. GDP for 2013 revised down slightly, and the unemployment rate projections revised down.  Inflation revised down.

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year. Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2013 09:39:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Continues to Improve at a Healthy Pace

With increasing demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) is continuing to strengthen. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the February ABI score was 54.9, up slightly from a mark of 54.2 in January. This score reflects a strong increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 64.8, higher than the reading of 63.2 the previous month – and its highest mark since January 2007.

“Conditions have been strengthening in all regions and construction sectors for the last several months,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Still, we also continue to hear a mix of business conditions in the marketplace as this hesitant recovery continues to unfold.”

• Regional averages: Northeast (56.7), Midwest (54.7), West (54.7), South (52.7)

• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (60.9), mixed practice (56.9), commercial / industrial (53.3), institutional (50.7)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.9 in February, up from 54.2 in January. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Every building sector is now expanding and new project inquiries are strongly positive (highest since January 2007). Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for seven consecutive months and suggests some increase in CRE investment in the second half of 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2013 08:07:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier.
...
The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 75 percent of total applications from 76 percent the previous week.The refinance share has decreased for ten straight weeks and is at its lowest level since early May 2012. ... The HARP share of refinance applications increased to 31 percent from 30 percent the prior week.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 3.82 percent from 3.81 percent, with points decreasing to 0.38 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the refinance index.

There has been a sustained refinance boom for over a year, but activity has been declining over the last few months.

Refinance activity will probably slow in 2013.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.  The 4-week average of the purchase index has generally been trending up (slowly) over the last year.