by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 08:57:00 PM

Tomorrow will be busy ... but first from Tim Duy: ECB Should Pledge to Not Do Anything Stupid

Market participants were rattled today by the election news out of Italy, as it looks like the economically-challenged nation is now politically adrift. ...
...
Why should we be concerned that Italy backslides on its commitment to austerity? After all, evidence of the economic damage wrought by such policies continues to mount. If anything, a reversal of recent austerity should be welcome.

I suspect, however, that it is not the austerity that worries market participants. It is the fear that European Central Bank head Mario Draghi will threaten to pull his pledge to do whatever is takes to save the Euro in the face of Italian intransigence. The fear that European policymakers are about to partake in another grand game of chicken that once again will bring the sustainability of the single currency back into question. In short, I think that market participants fear tight monetary policy much more than loose fiscal policy. ...

Tuesday economic releases:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December will be released. Although this is the December report, it is really a 3 month average of October, November and December. The consensus is for a 6.8% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for December. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 6.7% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.7% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for December 2012 will be released. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in house prices.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for January will be released by the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 381 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in January from 369 thousand in December.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. The consensus is for a a reading of minus 3 for this survey, up from minus 12 in January (Below zero is contraction).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February. The consensus is for the index to increase to 61.0.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver the "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress", Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 05:57:00 PM

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'll be tracking inventory weekly for the next few months.

If inventory does bottom, we probably will not know for sure until late in the year. In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The NAR data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) kindly sent me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year.

In 2010 (blue), inventory followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far - through late February - it appears inventory is increasing at a sluggish rate.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

The key will be to see how much inventory increases over the next few months. In 2010, inventory was up 8% by early March, and up 15% by the end of March.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 3.6%.   If inventory doesn't increase more soon, then the bottom for inventory might not be until 2014.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 04:51:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

By request - following the sell off today - here are a couple of stock market graphs I haven't posted in several months. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in March 2000; almost 13 years ago.

The second graph (click on graph for larger image) is from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 01:02:00 PM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses December closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 5.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... today released its latest LPS Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on December 2012 residential real estate transactions. The The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 15,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The LPS HPI is off 21.9% from the peak in June 2006. Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. LPS shows prices off 52.3% from the peak in Las Vegas, 44.2% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire), and at a new peak in Austin!

Looking at the year-over-year price change throughout 2012 - in May, the LPS HPI turned positive and was up 0.4% year-over-year, in June the index was up 0.9% year-over-year, 1.8% in July, 2.6% in August, 3.6% in September, 4.3% in October, 5.1% in November, and now 5.8% in December.   These steady increases on a year-over-year basis suggest prices bottomed early in 2012.

Note: Case-Shiller for December will be released Tuesday morning.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 10:39:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases but at a Slower Pace

Texas factory activity expanded in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 12.9 to 6.2, suggesting growth continued but at a slower pace.

... The new orders index was positive for the second month in a row, although it fell from 12.2 to 2.8.

... The general business activity index was positive for the third month in a row, although it dipped from 5.5 to 2.2.

Labor market indicators were mixed in February. Hiring slowed with the employment index moving down to 2.0, and about 17 percent of employers reporting hiring and 15 percent noting layoffs. The average workweek index dipped into negative territory with a reading of –3.0, suggesting hours worked declined.

Expectations regarding future business conditions continued to reflect optimism. The index of future general business activity edged up from 9.2 to 10.8. The index of future company outlook remained unchanged at 20.1.

This was slightly below expectations of a reading of 4.0 for the general business activity index and suggest sluggish growth.