RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2013 08:53:00 AM
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Schedule for Week of Feb 17th
Note: I'll post a summary for last week later today.
There are three key housing reports that will be released this week: January housing starts on Wednesday, January Existing home sales on Thursday, and the homebuilder confidence survey on Tuesday.
Other key releases include the Q4 MBA National Mortgage Delinquency Survey on Thursday, and the FOMC minutes of the January meeting on Wednesday.
For manufacturing, the February Philly Fed survey will be released this week.
For prices, CPI and PPI for January will be released.
All US markets are closed in observance of the President's Day holiday.
10:00 AM: The February NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 48, up from 47 in January. Although this index has been increasing sharply, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for January. Total housing starts were at 954 thousand (SAAR) in December, up 12.1% from the revised November rate of 851 thousand (SAAR). Single-family starts increased to 616 thousand in December.
The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 914 thousand (SAAR) in January, down from 954 thousand in December.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes for January 29-30, 2013.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 359 thousand from 341 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for January. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in CPI in January and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.5 from 56.1 in January.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.90 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in December 2012 were 4.94 million SAAR.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 1.1, up from minus 5.8 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in this index.
During the day: The MBA's National Mortgage Delinquency Survey for Q4.
No releases scheduled.
Friday, February 15, 2013
Bank Failure #3 in 2013: Covenant Bank, Chicago, Illinois
by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2013 09:07:00 PM
The rate of bank failures has slowed significantly, and most of the recent failures have been pretty small banks. But here is a Friday tradition ...
From the FDIC: Liberty Bank and Trust Company, New Orleans, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Covenant Bank, Chicago, Illinois
As of December 31, 2012, Covenant Bank had approximately $58.4 million in total assets and $54.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $21.8 million. ... Covenant Bank is the 3rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Illinois.
Update: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Cities in January
by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2013 07:13:00 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me this updated table (below) of short sales and foreclosures for several selected cities and areas in January.
Look at the right two columns in the table below (Total "Distressed" Share for Jan 2013 compared to Jan 2012). In every area that reports distressed sales, the share of distressed sales is down year-over-year - and down significantly in many areas.
Also there has been a decline in foreclosure sales just about everywhere. Look at the middle two columns comparing foreclosure sales for Jan 2013 to Jan 2012. Foreclosure sales have declined in almost all of these areas (Orlando is an exception), and some of the declines have been stunning (the Nevada sales were impacted by a new foreclosure law).
Also there has been a shift from foreclosures to short sales. In most areas, short sales now out number foreclosures (Minneapolis and Orlando are exceptions).
Overall this is moving in the right direction, although some areas are lagging behind.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13-Jan | 12-Jan | 13-Jan | 12-Jan | 13-Jan | 12-Jan | |
| Las Vegas | 36.2% | 28.1% | 12.5% | 45.5% | 48.7% | 73.6% |
| Reno | 41.0% | 37.0% | 10.0% | 40.0% | 51.0% | 77.0% |
| Phoenix | 17.6% | 29.8% | 16.2% | 27.9% | 33.8% | 57.7% |
| Sacramento | 30.3% | 32.1% | 14.2% | 34.5% | 44.5% | 66.6% |
| Minneapolis | 10.6% | 16.2% | 32.3% | 39.0% | 42.9% | 55.2% |
| Mid-Atlantic (MRIS) | 13.1% | 16.4% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 25.8% | 33.3% |
| Orlando | 23.7% | 37.6% | 26.7% | 26.2% | 50.4% | 63.7% |
| California (DQ)* | 26.1% | 27.0% | 18.7% | 34.3% | 44.8% | 61.3% |
| Bay Area CA (DQ)* | 23.3% | 28.1% | 14.4% | 27.2% | 37.7% | 55.3% |
| So. California (DQ)* | 25.9% | 27.2% | 15.0% | 32.6% | 40.9% | 59.8% |
| Hampton Roads | 34.9% | 37.2% | ||||
| Chicago | 49.0% | 52.0% | ||||
| Charlotte | 18.1% | 21.0% | ||||
| Metro Detroit | 36.3% | 54.5% | ||||
| Memphis* | 25.9% | 36.6% | ||||
| Birmingham AL | 30.2% | 38.2% | ||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||
Lawler: Publicly-Traded Home Builder Results and Comparison to Census New Home Sales
by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2013 03:28:00 PM
From economist Tom Lawler:
Below is a summary of some selected stats from nine large publicly-traded home builders.
While not shown below, the combined order backlog of these builders on December 31, 2012 was 28,455, up 55.8% from the end of 2011.
As I’ve noted before, comparing these builder results with the Census Bureau’s estimate of overall US new home sales is tricky; first, Census deals with sales cancellations differently from home builder results, and second, there appear to be differences between when builders “book” a sales order and when Census “counts” a sale.
While I only have data for the above builders back to Q2/2009, the limited data suggest that reported builder sales “lead” the Census home sales data. At the bottom is a chart showing Census new home sales data and a two-quarter average of the above builders’ net orders data (shown in index form).
| Net Orders | Settlements | Average Closing Price | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qtr. Ended: | Dec 2012 | Dec 2011 | % Chg | Dec 2012 | Dec 2011 | % Chg | Dec 2012 | Dec 2011 | % Chg |
| D.R. Horton | 5,259 | 3,794 | 38.6% | 5,182 | 4,118 | 25.8% | $236,067 | $214,740 | 9.9% |
| PulteGroup | 3,926 | 3,084 | 27.3% | 5,154 | 4,303 | 19.8% | $287,000 | $271,000 | 5.9% |
| NVR | 2,625 | 2,158 | 21.6% | 2,788 | 2,391 | 16.6% | $331,900 | $304,600 | 9.0% |
| The Ryland Group | 1,502 | 915 | 64.2% | 1,578 | 1,040 | 51.7% | $270,000 | $254,000 | 6.3% |
| Beazer Homes | 932 | 724 | 28.7% | 1,038 | 867 | 19.7% | $235,500 | $215,500 | 9.3% |
| Standard Pacific | 983 | 615 | 59.8% | 973 | 782 | 24.4% | $388,000 | $374,000 | 3.7% |
| Meritage Homes | 1,094 | 749 | 46.1% | 1,240 | 894 | 38.7% | $294,000 | $275,000 | 6.9% |
| MDC Holdings | 869 | 523 | 66.2% | 1,221 | 792 | 54.2% | $318,700 | $291,300 | 9.4% |
| M/I Homes | 673 | 505 | 33.3% | 887 | 667 | 33.0% | $273,000 | $257,000 | 6.2% |
| Total | 17,863 | 13,067 | 36.7% | 20,061 | 15,854 | 26.5% | $282,723 | $263,035 | 7.5% |
Click on graph for larger image.The chart suggests that Census’ industry estimates and these nine builders’ net orders moved pretty closely together from 2009 through early 2012. Over the last three quarters, however, these nine builders’ net orders showed considerably more strength that Census’ estimates in the last three quarters of 2012, with the “gap” widening throughout the year. This suggests either that large builders’ share of the new SF home market increased last year, though it also suggests that Census’ new home sales estimate for the last quarter of 2012 may be revised upward.
Mortgage Rates Unchanged in Latest Survey, Up slightly over last few months
by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2013 01:32:00 PM
From Freddie Mac yesterday: 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Unchanged for Third Consecutive Week
Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates unchanged from the previous week and remaining near their record lows ...
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.53 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 14, 2013, the same as last week. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.87 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 2.77 percent with an average 0.8 point, the same as last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.16 percent.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the MBA's refinance index (monthly average) and the the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®.
The Freddie Mac survey started in 1971 and mortgage rates are currently near the record low for the last 40 years.
The record low in the Freddie Mac survey for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage was 3.31% in November 2012.
The second graph shows the 15 and 30 year fixed rates from the Freddie Mac survey since the Primary Mortgage Market Survey® started in 1971 (15 year in 1991).Note: Mortgage rates were at or below 5% back in the 1950s.
