by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2013 08:06:00 AM

Note: I'll post a summary for last week later today.

This will be a light week for economic data. The key report for this week will be the November trade balance report on Friday.

Also Reis will release their Q4 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate surveys this week. Last quarter Reis reported falling vacancy rates for apartments, malls, and offices.

----- Monday, Jan 7th -----
Early: Reis Q4 2012 Office survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Tuesday, Jan 8th -----
Early: Reis Q4 2012 Apartment survey of rents and vacancy rates.

7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December. The consensus is for an increase to 87.9 from 87.5 in November.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for November from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for credit to increase $13.2 billion in November.

----- Wednesday, Jan 9th -----
Early: Reis Q4 2012 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, Jan 10th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 362 thousand from 372 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for November from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 3.675 million, up from 3.547 million in September. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 8% year-over-year compared to October 2011.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

----- Friday, Jan 11th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

Both exports and imports decreased in October. US trade has slowed recently.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $41.1 billion in November from $42.2 billion in October. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched due to economic weakness. Note: the strike at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles started in late November and impacted this report.

8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices for December. The consensus is a 0.1% increase in import prices.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2013 09:22:00 PM

Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The number of unofficial problem banks grew steadily and peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011. The list has been declining since then.

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 4, 2012.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Quiet start to the new year for the Unofficial Problem Bank List as there were only four removals this week. The removals push the list count down to 834 institutions with assets of $311.6 billion. A year ago, the list held 970 institutions with assets of $391.2 billion.

Actions were terminated against CommerceWest Bank, N.A., Irvine, CA ($340 million) and Farmers State Bank, Victor, MT ($315 million). The Savannah Bank, National Association, Savannah, GA ($672 million) and Bryan Bank & Trust, Richmond Hill, GA merged into SCBT, Columbia, SC during December 2012. Next week will likely be as quiet; however, the FDIC may have a pent-up closing or two that have been on ice through the holidays they need to get done.

Earlier on employment:
• December Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
• Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• Employment graph gallery

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2013 06:20:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR): AAR Reports Mixed Annual and Monthly Traffic for December

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported mixed 2012 rail traffic compared with 2011. U.S. rail intermodal volume totaled 12.3 million containers and trailers in 2012, up 3.2 percent or 374,918 units, over 2011. Carloads totaled 14.7 million in 2012, down 3.1 percent or 476,322 carloads, from 2011. Intermodal volume in 2012 was the second highest on record, down 0.1 percent or 14,885 containers and trailers, from the record high totals of 2006.
...
“Coal and grain typically account for around half of U.S. rail carloads, so when they’re down, chances are good that overall rail carloads are down too, as we saw in 2012,” said AAR Senior Vice President John T. Gray. “That said, a number of key rail carload categories showed solid improvement in 2012, including categories like autos and lumber that are most highly correlated with economic growth. Meanwhile, intermodal just missed setting a new volume record in 2012.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).

U.S. railroads originated 1,086,990 carloads in December 2012, down 4.2% (48,071 carloads) from December 2011 and an average of 271,748 carloads per week. Except for a tiny increase in January, year-over-year total U.S. rail carloads fell each month in 2012 compared with the same month in 2011 ...

In December 2012, as in every prior month in 2012, year-over-year U.S. rail carloads would have increased if not for a decline in coal carloadings. Coal carloads totaled 446,233 in December 2012, down 13.3% (68,372 carloads) from December 2011.

Grain carloads totaled 72,422 in December 2012, down 13.9% (11,708 carloads) from December 2011. December 2012’s average weekly grain carloads of 18,106 were the lowest for any December on record.
...
Other commodities showing carload increases on U.S. railroads in December 2012 compared with December 2011 include motor vehicles and parts (up 7,252 carloads, or 13.9%) and crushed stone, gravel, and sand (up 5,419 carloads, or 9.1%. Carloads of stone, clay and glass products were up 1,902, or 7.8%, in December 2012, while carloads of lumber and wood products were 1,673, or 16.3%, higher for the month.

Note that building related commodities were up.

The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Graphs reprinted with permission.

Intermodal traffic is near peak levels (black line).

U.S. rail intermodal traffic totaled 888,002 containers and trailers in December 2012, up 1.7% (14,690 intermodal units) over December 2011 and an average of 222,001 per week ... For all of 2012, U.S. rail intermodal volume totaled 12,267,336 containers and trailers, up 3.2% (374,918 units) over 2011 and just 0.1% (14,885 units) off 2006’s record. A new record almost certainly would have been set in 2012 if not for the strike by harbor clerks at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach beginning in late November, and/or Hurricane Sandy, which severely disrupted rail and port operations on the East Coast beginning in late October.

Intermodal will probably set a new record in 2013.

Earlier on employment:
• December Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
• Graphs for Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• Employment graph gallery

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2013 02:31:00 PM

Here are the earlier employment posts (with graphs):

• December Employment Report: 155,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Report Comments and more Graphs
• Employment graph gallery


And a few more graphs ...

Duration of Unemployment
This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

The general trend is down for all categories, but only the less than 5 weeks is back to normal levels.

The the long term unemployed is at 3.1% of the labor force - and the number (and percent) of long term unemployed remains a serious problem.

Unemployment by Education
This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older).

Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and only includes one previous recession (the stock / tech bust in 2001). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and it appears all four groups are generally trending down.

Although education matters for the unemployment rate, it doesn't appear to matter as far as finding new employment (all four categories are only gradually declining).

Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed".

Diffusion Indexes
This is a little more technical. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 63.2 in December, up from 56.6 in November. For manufacturing, the diffusion index increased to 59.3, up from 51.2 in November.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS:

Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

Even though the headline number was similar for November and December, it appears job growth was spread across more industries in December, and that is good news.

by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2013 11:52:00 AM

Here is a table of the change in payroll employment on an annual basis (before benchmark revisions - the revision through March 2012 will be released next month and will show more jobs added based on the preliminary estimate):

Annual Change Payroll Employment (000s)
	Private	Public	Total
2006	1,859	209	2,068
2007	812	288	1,100
2008	-3,782	179	-3,603
2009	-4,984	-76	-5,060
2010	1,248	-221	1,027
2011	2,105	-265	1,840
2012	1,903	-68	1,835

Employment growth in 2012 was mostly in line with expectations.  A little good news - it appears we are near the end of the state and local government layoffs (see last graph), but the Federal government layoffs are ongoing. Look at the table - four consecutive years of public sector job losses is unprecedented since the Depression.

The first graph below shows the employment-population ratio for the 25 to 54 age group. This has been moving sideways lately, and that shows the labor market is still weak. Also seasonal retail hiring slowed sharply in December (3rd graph) - but overall seasonal hiring suggests a decent holiday retail season.

Hopefully employment growth will pick up some in 2013, although austerity probably means another year of sluggish growth. Here are a several more graphs...

Employment-Population Ratio, 25 to 54 years old

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the participation rate has declined recently due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population) reasons, an important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

In the earlier period the employment-population ratio for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force. The ratio has been mostly moving sideways since the early '90s, with ups and downs related to the business cycle.

This ratio should probably move close to 80% as the economy recovers. The ratio increased in December to 75.9% from 75.7% in November. This has generally been trending up - although the improvement stalled in 2012 - and the ratio is still very low.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions


This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at maximum job losses.

In the earlier post, the graph showed the job losses aligned at the start of the employment recession.

This financial crisis recession was much deeper than other post WWII recessions, and the recovery has been slower (the recovery from the 2001 recession was slow too). However, if we compare to other financial crisis recoveries, this recovery has actually been better than most.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers at a slow pace in December.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 88.3 thousand workers (NSA) net in December. The combined level for October, November is the highest since 2006. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

This suggests retailers were initially optimistic about the holiday season, but sales might have slowed in December. There is a decent correlation between retail hiring and retail sales, see: Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales, and the retail season was probably decent.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 7.9 million, changed little in December. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of part time workers declined in December to 7.92 million from 8.14 million in November.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 14.4% in December.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 4.77 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down slightly from 4.78 million in November, and is at the lowest level since June 2009. This is generally trending down, but is still very high. Long term unemployment remains one of the key labor problems in the US.

State and Local Government

This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost 129,000 jobs in 2009, 262,000 in 2010, and 230,000 in 2011. In 2012, state and local government employment declined by 26,000 jobs.

Note: The dashed line shows an estimate including the benchmark revision.

It appears most of the state and local government layoffs are over, however the Federal government layoffs are ongoing. Overall government employment has seen an unprecedented decline over the last 3+ years (not seen since the Depression).

All Employment Graphs