by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 10:00:00 AM

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in December. PMI was at 50.7% in December, up from 49.5% in November. The employment index was at 52.7%, up from 48.4%, and the new orders index was at 50.3%, unchanged from November.

From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December, following one month of contraction, and the overall economy grew for the 43rd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 50.7 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November's reading of 49.5 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for only the third time in the last seven months. This month's PMI™ reading moved manufacturing off its low point for 2012 in November. The New Orders Index remained at 50.3 percent, the same rate as in November, indicating growth in new orders for the fourth consecutive month. The Production Index registered 52.6 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points, indicating growth in production for the third consecutive month. The Employment Index registered 52.7 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points, indicating a resumption of growth in employment following only one month of contraction since September 2009. Both the Exports and Imports Indexes registered 51.5 percent, returning both indexes to growth territory following consecutive periods of contraction of six and four months, respectively. Comments from the panel this month are mixed, with some indicating a strengthening of demand and others indicating a continuing softness in demand. Additionally, many respondents express uncertainty about government regulations, taxes and global economics in general as we approach 2013."

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

This was slightly above expectations of 50.5% and suggests manufacturing expanded in December.

by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2013 09:05:00 AM

Scheduling note: Both the FOMC minutes and the MBA Purchase index will be released on Thursday.

From MarkIt: PMI at seven-month high in December, signalling solid expansion of manufacturing sector

The final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) was 54.0 in December, down slightly from the flash estimate of 54.2, and signalled a further expansion of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Moreover, up from 52.8 in November, the headline PMI indicated the strongest rate of growth since May.
...
One-in-five companies reported an increase in new orders, with the overall rate of growth the fastest since April. Moreover, new export orders increased for the second month running and at the strongest pace since March.
...
“Firms are also taking on more staff, suggesting that the underlying improvement in demand pushed any worries about the ‘fiscal cliff’ to backs of manufacturers’ minds in the closing weeks of the year. [said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit]

“With recent indications that growth is also picking up in other key economies around the world, notably in emerging markets such as China and Brazil, and that the Eurozone’s economic crisis is easing, U.S. companies should benefit as stronger demand lifts exports in early 2013. While economic growth may disappoint in the fourth quarter compared to the 3.1% rate of expansion seen in the third quarter, the recent run of positive PMI surveys towards the end of 2012 suggests that prospects have begun to look a little brighter for the new year.”

The ISM PMI will be released at 10 AM today.

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2013 11:36:00 PM

From the WaPo: House passes ‘fiscal cliff’ bill

The vote was 257 to 167, with 85 Republicans joining with nearly all of the chamber’s Democrats. President Obama, whose vice president, Joe Biden, crafted the deal with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), was preparing to address the nation.

After the bill passed, President Obama spoke briefly. Mr. Obama said this bill was "just one step", that he is "open to compromise" on the deficit, but that the default ceiling (aka debt ceiling) was off the table (taking a page from Ronald Reagan).

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2013 06:51:00 PM

Update: The FOMC Minutes and auto sales will be released on Thursday.

Here is the live feed for the U.S. House of Representatives. That might vote on something tonight.

Back to work ...

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 9:00 AM ET, The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. The consensus is for an increase to 54.2, up from 52.8.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for December will be released. The consensus is for PMI to increase to 50.5 from 49.5 in November. (above 50 is expansion). The regional surveys suggest expansion in December.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

Here are the winners for the December economic question contest:
1st: Matei Ripeanu
2nd tie: Walt Tucker, OpenID User, Bill Dawers, Joey Cordero

Here are the 2012 Overall winners:
1st: Bill (CR)
2nd: Bryant Dodson
3rd: Billy Forney
4th: Bill Dawers
5th: Walt Tucker

Congratulations all!

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2013 12:07:00 PM

Taxprof has posted the Senate version of the bill: H. R. 8

It appears that the Mortgage Debt Relief Act of 2007 will be extended for one year. Usually cancelled debt is considered income, but a provision of the Debt Relief Act allowed borrowers "to exclude certain cancelled debt on [a] principal residence from income. Debt reduced through mortgage restructuring, as well as mortgage debt forgiven in connection with a foreclosure, qualifies for the relief." (excerpt from IRS).

Here is the text from H.R.8:

SEC. 202. EXTENSION OF EXCLUSION FROM GROSS INCOME OF DISCHARGE OF QUALIFIED PRINCIPAL RESIDENCE INDEBTEDNESS.

(a) IN GENERAL.—Subparagraph (E) of section 108(a)(1) is amended by striking ‘‘January 1, 2013’’ and inserting ‘‘January 1, 2014’’.

(b) EFFECTIVE DATE.—The amendment made by this section shall apply to indebtedness discharged after December 31, 2012.

This is helpful for foreclosures, mortgage modifications, and for short sales (so the seller can sell the house for less than is owed, and not have to pay taxes on the debt forgiveness). This provision had wide bipartisan support and was expected to be included.