by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 02:52:00 PM

This is a minor indicator that I follow. Truck tonnage was negatively impacted by Hurricane Sandy in October, and bounced back in November.

From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rebounds 3.7% in November

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 3.7% in November erasing October’s 3.7% drop. (The 3.7% decrease in October was revised from a 3.8% contraction ATA reported on November 20, 2012.) November’s gain was the first since July of this year. As a result, the SA index equaled 118.0 (2000=100) in November versus 113.8 in October. Compared with November 2011, the SA index was up 1%, after contracting 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in October. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 2.8%.
...
“Sandy impacted both October’s and November’s tonnage readings,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “But it was still good to see tonnage snap back in November.” Costello said he expects a boost to flatbed tonnage from the rebuilding in the areas impacted by Sandy, but most of that won’t happen until the spring when the money starts flowing and the weather is conducive to building.

“Outside of Sandy, if the fiscal cliff isn’t fixed in time, expect a slowdown in tonnage early next year as paychecks shrink for all households,” Costello said. “Since trucks account for the vast majority of deliveries in the retail supply, any reduction in consumer spending will hurt.” Costello added that even if we don’t go off the fiscal cliff, he expects slower tonnage growth in 2013 than 2012 as better housing starts and auto sales will be offset by slower factory output and consumer spending.
emphasis added

Note from ATA:

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

Overall the index has been mostly moving sideways this year due to the slowdown in manufacturing.

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 11:55:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally lower in November. Forty-five states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases and five states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 10.8 percent in November, followed by Rhode Island at 10.4 percent. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.1 percent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement - Michigan and Ohio have seen the most improvement - New Jersey and Connecticut are the laggards.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Only two states still have double digit unemployment rates: Nevada and Rhode Island. In early 2010, 18 states and D.C. had double digit unemployment rates.

Last month I wrote: "I expect the unemployment rate in California to fall below 10% very soon" and sure enough the unemployment rate in California fell to 9.8% in November, the lowest level since January 2009.

Even though Nevada still has the highest unemployment rate, the rate has declined in recent months, falling from 12.1% in August to 10.8% in November.

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 10:55:00 AM

LPS released their First Look report for November today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent increased in November compared to October, and declined about 9% year-over-year. Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further in November and are the lowest level since 2009.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) increased to 7.12% from 7.03% in October. Note: the normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

 The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 3.51% from 3.61% in October. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down about 10% year-over-year (434,000 fewer properties delinquent), and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 18% or 388,000 year-over-year.

The percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process is still very high, but the number of loans in the foreclosure process is now declining.

LPS will release the complete mortgage monitor for November in early January.

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Nov 2012	Oct 2012	Nov 2011
Delinquent	7.12%	7.03%	7.83%
In Foreclosure	3.51%	3.61%	4.20%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,999,000	1,957,000	2,250,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,584,000	1,543,000	1,767,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	1,767,000	1,800,000	2,155,000
Total Properties	5,350,000	5,300,000	6,172,000

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December declined to 72.9, down from the preliminary reading of 74.5, and was down from the November reading of 82.7.

This was below the consensus forecast of 75.0. The recent decline in sentiment is probably related to Congress and the so-called "fiscal cliff". This is similar to the sharp decline in 2011 when Congress threatened to force the US to default (not pay the bills).

I still think an agreement will be reached in early January - there is no drop dead date - but you never know. 

by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2012 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $85.8 billion, or 0.6 percent ... in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $41.3 billion, or 0.4 percent..
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.6 percent in November, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in October. ... The price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in November, in contrast to an increase of 0.1 percent in October. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased less than 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $436.7 billion in November, compared with $404.6 billion in October. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.6 percent in November, compared with 3.4 percent in October.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income increased more than expected in November and PCE for October was revised up.

The "two month method" for estimating Q4 PCE suggests PCE will increase close to 2.2% in Q4 - more growth than most expect - although this estimate is probably a little high because PCE was strong in September. Still better than expected ...