by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2012 12:20:00 PM

From the WSJ: Labor Department May Delay Jobs Report

The U.S. Labor Department on Monday said it hasn’t made a decision yet on whether to delay Friday’s October jobs report ... The U.S. Census Bureau also said it hasn’t made a decision on whether to delay economic reports it plans to release this week, including construction spending on Thursday and factory orders on Friday.

This is minor compared to other storm related issues, but I'll check up on this.  They will probably know any schedule changes by Wednesday. Stay safe.

Update: For anyone interested, the WSJ online is free today.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2012 10:30:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands but at a Slower Pace

Texas factory activity increased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped from 10 to 7.9, indicating slightly slower growth.

Most other measures of current manufacturing activity also suggested growth in October, although new orders declined. The capacity utilization index edged up from 9.3 to 11.4, with more than one-quarter of manufacturers noting an increase. The shipments index held steady at 4.7, suggesting shipments rose at about the same pace as in September. The new orders index fell from 5.3 to –4.5, reaching its lowest level this year and indicating a decrease in demand.

Perceptions of general business conditions improved slightly in October. The general business activity index rose to 1.8, registering its first positive reading since June. The company outlook index was positive for the sixth month in a row and remained unchanged at 2.4.

Labor market indicators reflected slow but steady labor demand growth and shrinking workweeks. The employment index was 5.2 in October, largely unchanged from last month but well below the higher levels seen earlier in the year. About 15 percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index fell back into negative territory with a reading of –5.9, down from 2.8 in September.

This was at expectations of a reading of 2 for the general business activity index. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).

The ISM index for October will be released Thursday, Nov 1st, and these surveys suggest another weak reading close to 50.

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2012 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:

Personal income increased $48.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $87.9 billion, or 0.8 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.4 percent in September, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in August. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in September, the same increase as in August. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in September, the same increase as in August.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $395.0 billion in September, compared with $445.1 billion in August. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.3 percent in September, compared with 3.7 percent in August.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The September pickup in PCE is clear.

A key point is the PCE price index has only increased 1.7% over the last year, and core PCE is up only 1.7%. In August, core PCE increased at a 1.4% annualized rate.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2012 09:50:00 PM

UPDATE: US Markets closed on Monday. From NBC abd Reuters: NYSE and Nasdaq to close on Monday due to Hurricane Sandy

U.S. stock trading will be closed on Monday and possibly Tuesday in response to Hurricane Sandy, NYSE Euronext said late on Sunday.

NYSE Euronext, which runs the New York Stock Exchange, had previously said that electronic trading would remain open and that only the exchange's trading floor would close.

In a statement, the company said that "the dangerous conditions developing as a result of Hurricane Sandy will make it extremely difficult to ensure the safety of our people and communities, and safety must be our first priority."

Nasdaq said it would also close all U.S. equity and derivatives exchanges, as well as the Nasdaq/FINRA TRF on Monday, CNBC reported late Sunday night. It is likley the markets will also be closed on Tuesday, according to the statement from the exchange.

To all in the path of Sandy: Stay safe and dry!

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Personal Income and Outlays report for September is expected to be released. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in September, and for 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 1.7% year-over-year.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 2, up from -0.9 last month. This is the last of the regional survey for October.

• At 2:00 PM, The Federal Reserve is expect to release the October 2012 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

• Expected: the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Apartment Survey. This is a key survey for apartment vacancy rates and rents.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.3%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are down 10.

Oil prices are down recently with WTI futures at $86.28 per barrel and Brent down to $110.12 per barrel.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 28th

Three more questions this week for the October economic prediction contest and four question for the November contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2012 06:15:00 PM

Stay safe! Here is the National Hurricane Center website.

From the U.S. Office of Personnel Management: Monday, October 29, 2012, FEDERAL OFFICES in the Washington, DC, area are CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC.

From the NY Times: N.Y.S.E. Plans to Close Its Trading Floor

The New York Stock Exchange plans to close its trading floor on Monday as Hurricane Sandy approaches, in its first weather-related closure in 27 years. Trading operations will be conducted through its electronic market instead.
...
Clients should not notice any differences in the way their orders are executed, Duncan L. Niederauer, the chief executive of NYSE Euronext, said by telephone on Sunday.

I think the economic releases scheduled for Monday will still be released (Personal Income and Spending, Senior Loan Officer Survey), but there could be delays.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 26th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 28th