by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2012 04:42:00 PM

CR Note: This is a very useful website. The estimate of lender Real Estate Owned (REO) in June was very close to the bottom up estimate using data from the FHA, Fannie, Freddie, the FDIC and more.

From economist Tom Lawler:

Folks interested in REO inventories by state might want to take at look at the website below from the FRB of New York. According to the FRBoNY, the data were “provided by CoreLogic under contract.”

An Assessment of the Distressed Residential Real Estate Situation

The site shows a map and you have to click on each state to get data, and I couldn’t get DC (I don’t think it was available!), but here’s the data for June 30, 2012

Number of REO by State, June 2012
Northeast
Connecticut	2,345
Maine	910
Massachusetts	7,501
New Hampshire	2,847
New Jersey	1,979
New York	2,557
Pennsylvania	7,712
Rhode Island	2,110
Vermont	264
South
Alabama	7,644
Arkansas	1,027
Delaware	1,163
District of Columbia
Florida	44,677
Georgia	33,537
Kentucky	4,442
Louisiana	4,756
Maryland	4,614
Mississippi	2,907
North Carolina	12,005
Oklahoma	3,009
South Carolina	5,775
Tennessee	10,575
Texas	22,528
Virginia	8,810
West Virginia	1,780
Midwest
Illinois	33,584
Indiana	7,548
Iowa	2,792
Kansas	3,540
Michigan	38,275
Minnesota	16,761
Missouri	10,821
Nebraska	1,184
North Dakota	128
Ohio	18,533
South Dakota	471
Wisconsin	9,807
West
Alaska	494
Arizona	12,465
California	49,299
Colorado	8,596
Hawaii	936
Idaho	2,131
Montana	826
Nevada	7,882
New Mexico	2,575
Oregon	4,452
Utah	4,193
Washington	7,461
Wyoming	905
Total (ex-DC)	443,133

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2012 01:58:00 PM

Note: ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello says, for trucking, the pickup in housing is offsetting the "flattening in manufacturing output".

From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 0.4% in September

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in September after falling 0.9% in August. In September, the SA index equaled 118.7 (2000=100). The level in September was the same as in January 2012, so the index has been on a flat trend-line over the past 9 months. Compared with September 2011, the SA index was 2.4% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009.
...
“The year-over-year deceleration in tonnage continued during September, although I was encouraged that the seasonally adjusted index edged higher from August,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. Costello noted again this month that the acceleration in housing starts, which is helping truck tonnage, is being countered by a flattening in manufacturing output and elevated inventories throughout the supply chain."
emphasis added

Note from ATA:

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index. The index is above the pre-recession level and up 2.4% year-over-year - but has been mostly moving sideways in 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2012 12:08:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 39 states, decreased in five states, and remained stable in six states, for a one-month diffusion index of 68. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 37 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in two states, for a three-month diffusion index of 52. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.2 percent in September and 0.6 percent over the past three months.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In September, 41 states had increasing activity, up from 33 in August (including minor increases). This is the second consecutive year with a weak spot during the summer, and improvement towards the end of the year.


Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.

The map was all green earlier this year and is starting to turn mostly green again.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Pulled Back in October; Optimism Wanes

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region pulled back in October after improving somewhat last month, according to the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The seasonally adjusted index of overall activity was pushed lower as all broad indicators of activity — shipments, new orders and employment — were in negative territory.
...
Looking forward, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were less optimistic in October. Contacts at more firms anticipated that new orders, backlogs, capacity utilization, and vendor lead-times will grow more slowly than anticipated a month ago.
...
In October, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — lost eleven points to −7 from September's reading of 4. Among the index's components, shipments fell eighteen points to −9, new orders moved down thirteen points to finish at −6, and the jobs index held steady at −5.

This suggests contraction in manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region. It appears some of this contraction may be due to the European recession and reduced exports to Europe.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2012 08:37:00 AM

From the WSJ: Bank of Spain Warns on Deficit Targets

Spain's central bank said Tuesday the country's economy contracted slightly less than expected in the third quarter but repeated a warning that tax-revenue shortfalls could cause the government to miss its 2012 budget-deficit target.

The euro zone's fourth-largest economy contracted by 0.4%, the same as in the second quarter, the Bank of Spain said in a quarterly report. On an annual basis, the contraction was 1.7% ...

The government has said its deficit will rise to 7.4% of GDP this year ...

"The efforts to lower spending at the public sector have had a net contracting effect (on the economy) in the central months of the year," the central bank said. "We see drops in consumption and investment by all levels of government above those seen in previous quarters."
emphasis added

Another austerity data point. Still the Spanish bond yields are down from the levels of a few months ago with the 10-year yield at 5.55%, and the 2-year yield at 2.98%.