by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2012 06:24:00 PM

From Reuters: Average U.S. retail gas prices drop 8 cents in two weeks: survey

Gasoline prices averaged $3.7529 per gallon on October 19, down from $3.8375 on October 5, Trilby Lundberg, editor of the Lundberg Survey, said.
...
Lundberg said further declines in retail gas prices are expected if the cost of crude oil does not rise substantially. She added that in California, gasoline prices could have a "dramatic crash" after refinery problems caused a spike two weeks ago.

Those of us in California are still waiting for the "dramatic crash"! We are still paying well over $4 per gallon because of the recent refinery issues (I filled up Friday and paid $4.50 per gallon, but it looks like prices have fallen further over the last 2 days).

Using the calculator from Professor Hamilton, and the current price of Brent crude oil, the national average should be around $3.60 per gallon. That is about 8 cents below the current level according to Gasbuddy.com, and I expect prices to fall further. Note: Brent crude spot prices is at $110.76 per barrel (WTI is down to $90.05)

Gasoline prices have been on a roller coaster all year. Add a California city to the graph - like Los Angeles or San Francisco - and you will see the recent spike.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 21st

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2012 12:21:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported Friday:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by 1.2% (3.0 billion vehicle miles) for August 2012 as compared with August 2011. Travel for the month is estimated to be 262.4 billion vehicle miles.

Cumulative Travel for 2012 changed by 0.9% (17.8 billion vehicle miles).

The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.

The rolling 12 month total is still mostly moving sideways.

Click on graph for larger image.

In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.

Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 57 months - and still counting.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year.

Gasoline prices were up in August compared to August 2011. In August 2012, gasoline averaged of $3.78 per gallon according to the EIA. Last year, prices in August averaged $3.70 per gallon - but even with the increase in gasoline prices, miles driven increased year-over-year in August.

Just looking at gasoline prices suggest miles driven will be down in September - especially with the very high prices in California. Nationally gasoline prices averaged $3.91 in September, up sharply from $3.67 a year ago.

However, as I've mentioned before, gasoline prices are just part of the story. The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 5 years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 55 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers.

This graph from the Federal Highway Administration is based on the National Household Travel Survey shows the miles driven by certain age groups over time. The key is a large group is moving into the older age brackets, so their miles driven will decline - a large group is moving the from the "54 to 58" age group into the higher age groups.

I also suspect miles driven has been falling for lower age groups over the last few years, and the next survey will probably show that decline.

With all these factors, it may be years before we see a new peak in miles driven.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 21st

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2012 09:42:00 AM

The first two articles discuss the rise of extremism in Greece as the country suffers through another year of recession (the unemployment rate in Greece is over 25%). The third article notes that the next tranche of aid is expected by mid-November.

From the NY Times: Amid the Echoes of an Economic Crash, the Sounds of Greek Society Being Torn (ht Ann). An excerpt:

The government just passed a law allowing supermarkets to sell expired food at discounted prices. The price of home heating oil has tripled since 2009, and many apartment blocks are voting not to buy any since too many tenants can’t afford it.

As he stood outside a supermarket in a middle-class neighborhood here, a man who gave his name only as Stefanos, 70, said that his biggest fear was that Greece would reach a point “where for every five people unemployed, only one is working.”

“When that one person comes out of the supermarket, the other five are waiting for him outside to grab his groceries,” he said.

As the talks drag on between the government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Greece’s foreign lenders over politically toxic new austerity measures in exchange for more aid, the news media are filled every day with leaks about possible cuts to salaries and pensions, leading to a state of constant, low-grade panic.
...
As she shopped for vegetables at an outdoor market recently, Angeliki Christaki, 58, said she was growing more worried. “We’re heading toward a scenario of civil war,” she said. “But that’s only natural when the rich are against the poor, when the extreme right wing fights the extreme left wing.”

“I was personally crushed when I saw young kids in a Golden Dawn protest,” she said. “I could not believe my eyes.”

And from the WaPo: Anti-immigrant Golden Dawn rises in Greece

At first glance, the shop on a nondescript street in this chaotic capital looks standard-issue military. Fatigues. Camouflage. Hunting gear. Deeper inside, the political message emerges. Black T-shirts emblazoned with modified swastikas — the symbol of the far-right Golden Dawn party — are on sale. A proudly displayed sticker carries a favorite party slogan: “Get the Stench out of Greece.”

By “stench,” the Golden Dawn — which won its first-ever seats in the Greek Parliament this spring and whose popularity has soared ever since — means immigrants, broadly defined as anyone not of Greek ancestry.

From the Athens News: Samaras: Certainty of next loan tranche by mid-November

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Friday expressed certainty that a 31.5-billion-euro tranche of the EC-ECB-IMF bailout package will be disbursed by mid-November, preferably in its entirety, as soon as a report by the troika is adopted.

Speaking in Brussels at the end of a two-day EU summit, Samaras explained that a new summit will not be required to approve the disbursement, adding that the country's current cash reserves would run out on November 16.
emphasis added

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 21st

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2012 05:33:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Oct 19, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The OCC released its enforcement actions through mid-September 2012 and the FDIC got back to closing a few banks, which led to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. For the week, there were nine removals and two additions leaving the list at 865 institutions with assets of $333.2 billion. A year ago, the list held 976 institutions with assets of $401.9 billion.

They were six action terminations and three failures this week. The OCC terminated actions against The National Bank, Moline, IL ($1.0 billion); Peoples National Bank, Colorado Springs, CO ($194 million); United Community Bank, National Association, Highland Village, TX ($107 million); First National Bank MidWest, Oskaloosa, IA ($104 million); and First National Bank of Kansas, Burlington, KS ($72 million). The three failures were Excel Bank, Sedalia, MO ($201 million); GulfSouth Private Bank, Destin, FL ($159 million); and First East Side Savings Bank, Tamarac, FL ($67 million).

The two additions were Central Federal Savings and Loan Association, Cicero, IL ($183 million) and F&M Bank and Trust Company, Hannibal, MO ($165 million).

The OCC also issued a Prompt Corrective Action Order against One Bank & Trust, National Association, Little Rock, AR ($475 million). Next week, we anticipate the FDIC will release its actions through September 2012.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 21st

by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2012 01:10:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Oct 19th

The key U.S. economic report for the coming week is the Q3 advance GDP report to be released on Friday. Also New Home sales will be released on Wednesday.

For manufacturing, two regional manufacturing reports will be released (Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys).

There is an FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2:15 PM ET. No significant announcement is expected.

----- Monday, Oct 22nd ----- No economic releases scheduled.

Expected: LPS "First Look" Mortgage Delinquency Survey for September.

9:00 PM: Third Presidential Debate: President Obama and former Governor Romney debate Foreign policy at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida.

----- Tuesday, Oct 23rd -----
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. The consensus is for an increase to 6 for this survey from 4 in September (above zero is expansion).

----- Wednesday, Oct 24th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. This is a new release and might provide hints about the ISM PMI for October. The consensus is for a reading of 51.5, unchanged from September.

10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 385 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in August from 373 thousand in August. Watch for possible upgrades to the sales rates for previous months.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August 2012. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic). The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in house prices.

2:15 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No significant announcement is expected.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, Oct 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 372 thousand from 388 thousand.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 7.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September). This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is for a 2.5% increase in the index.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for October. The consensus is for an a reading of 4, up from 2 in September (above zero is expansion).

----- Friday, Oct 26th-----
8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (advance release). This is the advance release from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.9% annualized in Q3.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column (and dashed line) is the consensus forecast for Q3 GDP.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 83.1.