by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2012 06:18:00 PM

From the Financial Times: Saudis offer extra oil to control prices

Saudi Arabia has offered ... extra oil supplies through the end of the year, a sign the world’s largest exporter is worried about the impact of rising prices on the global economy.
...
“The current price is too high,” a senior Gulf-based oil official told the Financial Times. “We would like to see oil prices back to $100 a barrel.”
excerpt with permission

This might just be talk ... oil prices are down sharply over the last two days, however Brent futures are still at $112.52 per barrel according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices are still very high. From the Oregonian: Oregon, Washington gas prices moving in reverse, but still at historic highs

In the past week, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded in Oregon dropped three centers to $4.01, the nation’s 10th most expensive.

Washington has the nation’s sixth most-expensive gasoline for the second week in a row at $4.05, down a penny from last week.

The national average -- at $3.86 -- actually added a cent-and-a-half. For the first time since early April, Dodds said, 10 states, including California, Washington and Oregon, have averages at or above $4 a gallon, up from nine a week ago.

The following graph shows the recent increase in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices peaked in early April, then fell sharply in May and June - and have increased sharply since early July.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2012 03:19:00 PM

I expect this to get extended, but it is probably motivating some people to try to close their short sale before the end of the year.

From Carolyn Said at the San Francisco Chronicle: Clock ticking on forgiven-debt tax break

Before the housing downturn hit, "forgiven debt" on home mortgages could be taxed as income. For instance, if your lender lopped $50,000 off what you owed (a type of loan modification called principal reduction), if you short-sold the property for $50,000 less than your mortgage or if your lender foreclosed on a property worth $50,000 less than you owed, the $50,000 would be treated as income, adding up to a potential big bill for state and federal taxes.

But with millions of struggling homeowners in such situations, both the Congress and the California Legislature passed bills to exempt forgiven home debt from taxes.

But now the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 is due to expire on Dec. 31. The election-year Congress, already famously fractious, is not expected to act on it in 2012, although industry experts hope it could get extended next year. ...
Even if the act eventually gets renewed, it doesn't cover all homeowners.

"It applies only to the mortgage you originally got to acquire the home or to a refi used to improve the home," said Stephen Moskowitz, a tax attorney in San Francisco.

Homeowners who did cash-out refinances and used the money for any other purpose than fixing up their house could still be on the hook for forgiven debt.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2012 12:55:00 PM

From the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC): Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Announces Availability of 2011 Data on Mortgage Lending

The 2011 data include information on 11.7 million home loan applications (of which nearly 7.1 million resulted in loan originations) and 2.9 million loan purchases, for a total of nearly 14.7 million actions. The data also include information on 186,000 requests for preapprovals related to a home purchase that did not result in a loan. The total number of originated loans of all types and purposes reported fell by about 780,000, or 10 percent, from 2010, in part because of a 13 percent decline in refinancings. Home purchase lending also fell, but by a more modest 5 percent.

The 2011 HMDA data reflect a continued heavy reliance on loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) insurance that began several years ago with the onset of problems in the mortgage market. For home purchase lending, the FHA’s share of first-lien loans showed a continued increase from 7 percent in 2007 to 26 percent in 2008, and then to 37 and 36 percent, respectively, in 2009 and 2010. In 2011, the FHA share fell to 31 percent. First-lien lending for home purchases backed by Veterans Administration (VA) guarantees also has increased in recent years, although VA-backed lending represents a smaller share of the market than FHA-backed lending. The VA market share of first-lien home purchase loans increased from nearly 3 percent in 2007 to about 7 percent in 2009 and 2010. The VA market share of home purchase lending increased to 8 percent in 2011.

The overall volume of reported conventional, FHA-, and VA-related refinancing activity diminished slightly from 2010 to 2011. Although both the number of conventional and FHA-related refinancings fell from 2010 to 2011 (decreases of about 12 percent and 37 percent, respectively), the volume of VA-guaranteed refinancing activity rose significantly, increasing about 41 percent.

Refinance activity has picked up in 2012, although purchase activity has been at about the same level in 2011 according to the MBA.

This is still a very high percentage of FHA loans, although the percentage is down from the peak in 2009 and 2010 (probably because of higher fees).

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 3 points in September to 40. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues to Gain Momentum in September

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for a fifth consecutive month in September to a level of 40 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This latest three-point gain brings the index to its highest reading since June of 2006.

“Builders across the country are expressing a more positive outlook on current sales conditions, future sales prospects and the amount of consumer traffic they are seeing through model homes than they have in more than five years,” noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “However, against the improving demand for new homes, concerns are now rising about the lack of building lots in certain markets and the rising cost of building materials. Given the fragile nature of the housing and economic recovery, these are significant red flags.”
...
All three HMI components posted gains in September. While the component gauging current sales conditions increased four points to 42, the component gauging sales prospects in the next six months rose eight points to 51 and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers edged up one point to 31.

Builder confidence also rose across every region of the country in September. Looking at the three-month moving average for each region, the Midwest and West each registered five-point gains, to 40 and 43, respectively, while the South posted a four-point gain to 36 and the Northeast posted a two-point gain to 30.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the September release for the HMI and the July data for starts (August housing starts will be released tomorrow). This was above the consensus estimate of a reading of 38.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2012 08:01:00 AM

From Realtor.com: August 2012 Real Estate Data

The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remained at historic lows, with 1.84 million units for sale in August, down -18.68% compared to a year ago and 40% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September 2007, when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.

The median age of inventory of for sale listings was 91 days in August, up by 3.41% from July, but -11.65% below the median age one year ago (August 2011). While the median age of the inventory is highly seasonal, the year-over-year decline is consistent with other data showing a significant improvement in market conditions.

For sale inventories of SFH/CTHCOPS in August declined on an annual basis in all but two of the 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com, with for-sale inventory dropping by -20% or more in 62 of the 146 markets covered. ... Eight out of [top] 10 of these markets are in California, with Seattle, WA, and Atlanta, GA, also registering declines of -41% and -37%, respectively.

Only two areas experienced a year-over-year increase in their for-sale inventories— Shreveport, LA (+17.87%), and Philadelphia PA (+3.51%). Increasing inventories in these markets most likely reflect the impact of continued weaknesses in their local economies.

The NAR is scheduled to report August existing home sales and inventory on Wednesday. The key number in the NAR report will be inventory, and inventory will be down sharply again year-over-year in August.