by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2012 03:59:00 PM

CR Note: Tom Lawler thanks everyone for voting his horse "Dealer" to victory in the best pet contest. My congratulations to Rosemary and Tom who are celebrating their anniversary today!

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below for several more distressed areas. For almost of these areas (except Rhode Island), the share of distressed sales is down from July 2011 - and for the areas that break out short sales, the share of short sales has increased (except Minneapolis, and Lee County, FL) and the share of foreclosure sales are down. In most areas, short sales are higher than foreclosures, and for some areas like Phoenix, Reno and Las Vegas, short sales are now double the rate of foreclosures.

From Lawler: For the combined markets below showing the “total” distressed share of home sales, total home sales in July were up 8.7% from last July, but “non-distressed” sales were up by over 30%!

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July
Las Vegas	40.0%	20.2%	20.7%	50.2%	60.7%	70.4%
Reno	38.0%	28.0%	15.0%	37.0%	53.0%	65.0%
Phoenix	29.5%	23.6%	14.6%	43.1%	44.1%	66.7%
Sacramento	32.0%	22.3%	22.4%	39.0%	54.4%	61.3%
Minneapolis	9.3%	11.0%	24.8%	34.4%	34.1%	45.4%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	11.3%	10.2%	8.7%	15.1%	20.0%	25.2%
Orlando	28.2%	29.4%	23.7%	28.2%	51.9%	57.6%
California (DQ)	19.0%	17.3%	22.0%	34.5%	41.0%	51.8%
Lee County, FL	17.3%	18.8%	15.9%	30.6%	33.2%	49.4%
Hampton Roads VA					29.1%	30.3%
Northeast Florida					39.0%	44.1%
Sarasota					32.4%	38.0%
Chicago					36.1%	36.7%
Rhode Island					24.8%	20.3%
Miami-Dade					47.0%	52.0%
Memphis			26.7%	31.9%
Birmingham AL			27.2%	28.4%
Houston			16.3%	19.6%

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2012 01:29:00 PM

From the Athens News: Merkel lays down the law

“We expect Greece to deliver all that has been promised,” Merkel declared. In remarks that were unusually sharp for a joint news conference, she stressed that Berlin has heard words in the past but now expects deeds.

The tough talk contrasted sharply with the head of state honours and diplomatic smiles with which Samaras was received on his first official visit, complete with red carpet and band.

Merkel said that Samaras’ visit is a sign of the “very close ties” between the two countries, only to add later that each side had lost credibility in the eyes of the other and that trust must be regained.

“Our aim is for Greece to remain in the eurozone, despite all the problems that exist,” Merkel said, noting that the euro is more than a currency, that it is the embodiment of European unification.

Moreover, Merkel noted the tremendous sacrifices that the Greek people have made over the last years, underlining that the weaker classes have borne the brunt of austerity and that those who profited during previous years of prosperity have not done their part.

The remark was a thinly veiled barb against the handling of austerity measures by successive Greek governments, which have done nothing to combat rampant tax evasion among the higher income brackets, opting instead for repeated horizontal wage and pension cuts.
...
For his part, Samaras pledged that his government will pursue reforms on a strict timetable and that he is determined to “bring results”.

“I am certain that the troika report will signal that the new coalition government will deliver,” he said.

“We are eliminating two deficits at once – the country’s budget deficit and the credibility deficit,” he said.

But the prime minister underlined that “a revival of the economy and growth is of crucial importance to meet our obligations soon”.

Here is a transcript in Greek from the Greek government.

And a google translation.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2012 10:13:00 AM

This is an interesting biennial survey that tracks people who lost jobs that they had held for 3+ years ...

From the BLS: Displaced Workers Summary

From January 2009 through December 2011, 6.1 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for at least 3 years, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was down from 6.9 million for the survey period covering January 2007 to December 2009. In January 2012, 56 percent of workers displaced from 2009-11 were reemployed, up by 7 percentage points from the prior survey in January 2010.

Some improvement for the previous survey (that included 2008). But, as of January 2012, only 56 percent of these workers had found new employment. And about 1/3 of those who were reemployed, took 20%+ pay cuts. From the survey:

Of the 3.0 million displaced workers who lost full-time wage and salary jobs during the 2009-11 period and were reemployed, 2.4 million had full-time wage and salary jobs in January 2012. Of these reemployed full-time workers who reported earnings on their lost job, 46 percent were earning as much or more in January 2012 as they did at their lost job. About one-third reported earnings losses of 20 percent or more.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2012 08:30:00 AM

Durable goods is always very volatile. This increase was related to a large increase in aircraft orders (Nondefense aircraft and parts increased 14.1%), Ex-transportation, orders fell 0.4% in July.

From the Census Bureau: Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders
January 2012

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $9.4 billion or 4.2 percent to $230.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up three consecutive months, followed a 1.6 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 5.7 percent.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, had the largest increase, $9.9 billion or 14.1 percent to $80.4 billion.

Expectations were for a 1.9% increase in orders.

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2012 09:04:00 PM

First, my friend Tom Lawler has been very kind and allowed me to excerpt pieces from his daily newsletter to share with everyone. The Lawler's beloved horse "Dealer" has had some lameness issues this year, and to cheer up his wife (and himself) Tom entered Dealer in a local best pet contest and hopes to surprise his wife with "Dealer" being named best pet. Right now Dealer is trailing in the voting, and Tom needs your help. If you could spare a few seconds, please go to this site and vote for "Dealer". Thank you so much!

A few articles on global issues ...

From the NY Times: French and German Leaders Meet as Fresh Signs Point to Regional Recession

Returning to business after their summer breaks, the German and French leaders met here Thursday to discuss the continuing crisis in the euro zone, even as fresh economic data reinforced fears that the region was sliding into recession.

From the NY Times: China Confronts Mounting Piles Of Unsold Goods

After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses.

The glut of everything from steel and household appliances to cars and apartments is hampering China’s efforts to emerge from a sharp economic slowdown. It has also produced a series of price wars and has led manufacturers to redouble efforts to export what they cannot sell at home.

From the Financial Times: Athens and Berlin in spat over funds

Leaders in Athens and Berlin wrangled publicly over how to deal with Greece’s plea for further assistance as fears of a renewed eurozone recession mounted yesterday.
...
Wolfgang Schäuble, finance minister, said on German radio that there was “understanding” for Athens’ predicament, but giving it more time was “not the solution”, adding: “More time implies . . . more money.”
excerpt with permission

On Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.9% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, the Worker Displacement report from the BLS for January 2012 will be released. This report will probably receive some attention because of weak labor market.

• Europe Note: the Spanish Government is expected to announce the details of the bank bailout. Also on Friday, Greek Prime Minister Samaras and German Chancellor Merkel will meet in Berlin with a press conference to follow.

Earlier:
• New Home Sales increase in July to 372,000 Annual Rate
• New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
• New Home Sales graphs