by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2012 09:30:00 PM

My baseline scenario is for economic growth to remain sluggish but to start to increase as housing improves and the impact of state and local austerity subsides. I think QE3 remains likely, although the timing is still uncertain. My baseline also assumes that some sort of reasonable resolution to the "fiscal cliff" is found, that the European crisis doesn't take down the world economy and that President Obama is reelected.

The Asian markets are mostly green tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite up slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down slightly, and the DOW futures down about 4 points.

Oil prices are moving up again with WTI futures are at $96.21 and Brent is at $114.10 per barrel. Using the calculator at Econbrowser suggests national gasoline prices at about $3.69 per gallon.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 17th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 19th

Two more questions for the August economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2012 06:56:00 PM

Just filled up my car, and I paid $4.11 per gallon. Using the calculator from Professor Hamilton, and the current price of Brent crude oil, the national average should be around $3.68 per gallon. That is about the current level according to Gasbuddy.com (see graph below). In California, where I live, gasoline prices are always higher than the national average. Update: Some of the recent increase in California was due to the refinery fire in Richmond

The following graph shows the recent increase in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices are down from the peak in early April, but up about 30 cents over the last seven weeks. Note: This will push up the headline CPI numbers.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 17th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 19th

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2012 12:15:00 PM

The European crisis will be back in the headlines soon ...

From Bloomberg: ECB May Set Yield Limits on Euro Sovereign Bonds, Spiegel Says

The European Central Bank is considering setting limits on yields of euro area sovereign debt by pledging unlimited bond purchases, Germany’s Spiegel magazine reported ...

On Thursday German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande will meet in Berlin, and on Friday, the Spanish Government is expected to announce the details of the bank bailout. Also on Friday, Greek Prime Minister Samaras and German Chancellor Merkel will meet in Berlin with a press conference to follow.

The following week, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts on Thursday, with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking on Friday, August 31st at 10 AM ET, and ECB President Mario Draghi speaking on Saturday, September 1st at 10 AM.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2012 08:01:00 AM

From Eric Wolff at the North County Times: Fears recede of second crash from 'shadow inventory'

For years, some real estate analysts feared that banks would suddenly release a wave of foreclosed houses, swamping the local housing market and sending house prices into a second collapse.

That second tsunami isn't happening, according to an analysis by the North County Times.

A house-price crash precipitated a series of foreclosure spikes in 2007 and 2008, leaving banks holding thousands of houses and struggling to hire staff to process them.

After 2009, real estate agents and some analysts became convinced that lenders were holding off on foreclosures, and sitting on foreclosed properties in order to prop up prices, creating a "shadow inventory."

They feared lenders would have to process and release all those houses ---- sending house prices, which have been bouncing along a price bottom for two years, into another downward spiral.

Instead, the number of homes in default has been steadily declining in the region, thanks to a host of programs from government and private banks and a turn toward short sales, in which borrowers sell their properties for less than they owe.

And once lenders have foreclosed on properties, they have moved quickly to sell them, so the stock of properties held by banks is declining, according to an analysis of foreclosure data by the North County Times.

Wolff has plenty of data for North County San Diego in his article. There isn't as much "shadow inventory" as feared.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2012 06:27:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 17, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

While the latest monthly release of enforcement action activity by the OCC contributed to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List, it finished the week largely unchanged at 899 institutions with assets of $347.5 billion, compared to 900 institutions and assets of $348.6 billion last week. A year ago, the list held 984 institutions with assets of $412.5 billion.

The OCC terminated actions against Seaside National Bank & Trust, Orlando, FL ($762 million); The First National Bank of Santa Fe, Santa Fe, NM ($751 million); Executive National Bank, Miami, FL ($285 million); First Community Bank, National Association, San Benito, TX ($216 million); Security Federal Savings Bank, Logansport, IN ($201 million); and Home Loan Investment Bank, F.S.B., Warwick, RI ($190 million).

Additions this week were The Bank of Maine, Portland, ME ($793 million); A J Smith Federal Savings Bank, Midlothian, IL ($228 million); CenTrust Bank, National Association, Northbrook, IL ($95 million); The Citizens National Bank of Meyersdale, Meyersdale, PA ($90 million); and Commonwealth National Bank, Mobile, AL ($68 million).

Next week, there is an outside chance for the FDIC to release its actions through July 2012.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 17th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 19th