by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2012 03:35:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on reports from various state and local realtor associations, boards, and/or MLS, I estimate that US existing home sales as estimated by the NAR ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in July, up 2.3% from June’s preliminary estimated pace. On the NAR’s preliminary June sales estimate, which was way below consensus and lower than my below-consensus forecast, state and local realtor/MLS reports released following the NAR’s EHS release were for the most part lower than I had assumed, and seemed to confirm the below-consensus pace of existing home sales in June. By the same token, however, the local realtor data released across the country seemed to suggest that existing home sales were a bit stronger than the NAR’s preliminary estimate (as was the case in May, when sales were revised upward from a SAAR of 4.55 million to 4.62 million). My “best guess” is that June’s existing home sales will be revised upward by a similar amount – from 4.37 million to around 4.44 million. Net, then, I expect that July’s seasonally adjusted existing home sales pace will be little changed from June’s upwardly revised pace.

While June and July existing home sale at first glance seem a bit disappointing relative to previous expectations, a major reason for the weaken-than-consensus sales is a much larger-than-consensus decline in the “distressed” – and especially the foreclosure – share of resales. E.g., in the markets shown in the “distressed home sales share” table [below], the distressed home sales share for those combined markets this July was down about ten percentage points from last July! (The drop for the whole country, of course, was probably smaller). “Non-distressed” sales have actually been running very strong relative to a year ago – for the markets on page one the YOY gain in “non-distressed” sales was over 30% -- and that strength, combined with significant declines in the inventory of homes for sale, has contributed to the upturn in home prices this year.

On the inventory front, the combination of various “trackers” of select metro markets and realtor reports suggests to me that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of July was probably down by about 22% or so from a year ago. How that will translate into a NAR estimate, however, is not clear. E.g., firms that track listings and/or folks who track realtor reports were very surprised that the NAR’s existing home inventory fell by 3.2% from June to July, and that July’s inventory number was down 24.4% from last July. I’m guessing that the June inventory number will be revised upward by around 1.7% (reflecting the upward sales revision), and that the NAR’s inventory estimate for July will be down by about 22.2% from last July, which would imply a monthly increase (from an assumed upward revision in June) of 0.8%.

On the median sales price side, for two months in a row the NAR’s preliminary median sales price estimates have been revised downward significantly, with the biggest revisions coming in the Northeast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a downward revision in the June MSP as well. For July, using a sales-weighted average methodology, I estimate that the July median existing SF home sales price as estimated by the NAR will show YOY gain of about 7.8%.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release the existing home sales report on Wednesday, August 22nd at 10 AM ET. The preliminary consensus is for sales of 4.50 million SAAR in July (close to Lawler's estimate). Based on Lawler's sales and inventory estimates, months-of-supply would be unchanged at 6.6 months.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July
Las Vegas	40.0%	20.2%	20.7%	50.2%	60.7%	70.4%
Reno	38.0%	28.0%	15.0%	37.0%	53.0%	65.0%
Phoenix	29.5%	23.6%	14.6%	43.1%	44.1%	66.7%
Sacramento	32.0%	22.3%	22.4%	39.0%	54.4%	61.3%
Minneapolis	9.3%	11.0%	24.8%	34.4%	34.1%	45.4%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	11.3%	10.2%	8.7%	15.1%	20.0%	25.2%
Orlando	28.2%	29.4%	23.7%	28.2%	51.9%	57.6%
Southern California	18.7%	17.4%	21.0%	32.6%	39.7%	50.0%
California (DQ)	19.0%	17.3%	22.0%	34.5%	41.0%	51.8%
Lee County, FL	17.3%	18.8%	15.9%	30.6%	33.2%	49.4%
Hampton Roads VA					29.1%	30.3%
Northeast Florida					39.0%	44.1%
Sarasota					32.4%	38.0%*
Chicago					36.1%	36.7%
Rhode Island					24.8%	20.3%

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2012 01:48:00 PM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for July. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, both inbound and outbound traffic are down slightly compared to the 12 months ending in June.

In general, inbound and outbound traffic has been moving sideways recently.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of July, loaded outbound traffic was down slightly compared to July 2011, and loaded inbound traffic was down 2% compared to July 2011.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday - so imports might increase over the next couple of months, but probably not by much.

This suggests import traffic might be down a little in July.

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2012 10:50:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or slightly higher in July. Forty-four states recorded unemployment rate increases, two states and the District of Columbia posted rate decreases, and four states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 12.0 percent in July. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 10.8 and 10.7 percent, respectively. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.0 percent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). Two states - New Jersey and New York - are at the maximum unemployment rate for the recession and set new cycle highs in July.

The New York unemployment rate increased to 9.1%, the previous cycle high was 8.9%. The New Jersey unemployment rate increased to 9.8%, the previous cycle high was 9.7%. Every other state has some blue indicating some improvement.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Only three states still have double digit unemployment rates: Nevada, Rhode Island, and California. This is the fewest since January 2009, although New Jersey is close. In early 2010, 18 states and D.C. had double digit unemployment rates.

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August increased to 73.6, up from the July reading of 72.3.

This was above the consensus forecast of 72.0 but still fairly low. Sentiment remains weak due to the high unemployment rate and sluggish economy - and rising gasoline prices probably aren't helping.

by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2012 09:15:00 PM

First from Bloomberg: U.S. to sell off some mortgages

A $1.7 billion portfolio of nonperforming, federally insured home loans will be offered for sale at auction next month [on Sept 12th].

The loans will be auctioned in pools consisting of homes in Chicago; Phoenix; Newark, N.J.; and Tampa, Fla. ... the portfolio ... consists of 9,442 loans with an average balance of $182,000, for the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

• At 9:55 AM ET, the Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for August) will be released. The consensus is for sentiment to decrease slightly to 72.0 from 72.3 in July.

• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board Leading Indicators for August will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in this index..

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2012 is scheduled to be released.

Earlier on housing starts:
• Housing Starts declined to 746 thousand in July
• Quarterly Housing Starts by Intent compared to New Home Sales
• Comment on Housing, and Starts and Completions
• On Yahoo Daily Ticker: Housing Starts Jump 20% in One Year: Recovery Ahead, Says Bill McBride