by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 09:25:00 PM

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will take questions on Tuesday, and his comments will be closely scrutinized for hints about QE3.

• On Tuesday, at 10:00 AM ET, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for June will be released by the BLS. The number of job openings has generally been trending up for the last three years. "Quits" have been increasing too - quits are frequently a sign of more confidence in the labor market.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Trulia house asking Price Monitor for July will be released. This monitor is based on asking prices and is adjusted for seasonality and mix. This is a leading indicator for the repeat sales indexes. This monitor has been showing rising prices and will probably show another increase in July.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speaks at "A Teacher Town Hall Meeting". The event will be broadcast live and the Q&A might provide hints about QE3. The Twitter discussion is at hashtag: #FedTownHall

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for July will be released. The consensus is for credit to increase $10.5 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 06:25:00 PM

Here is another update using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in listed inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.

According to the deptofnumbers.com for (54 metro areas), inventory is off 22.8% compared to the same week last year. Unfortunately the deptofnumbers only started tracking inventory in April 2006.

This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through June (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through early August.

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the NAR released their revisions for sales and inventory last year, the NAR and HousingTracker inventory numbers have tracked pretty well.

On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then starts to increase again through the summer. Inventory only increased a little this spring and has been declining for the last three months by this measure. It looks like inventory has peaked for this year.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the early August listings, for the 54 metro areas, declined 22.7% from the same period last year.

This decline in active inventory remains a huge story, and the lower level of inventory is pushing up house prices.

All current Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 02:00:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: The July 2012 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

In the July survey, modest fractions of domestic banks, on balance, continued to report having eased their lending standards across most loan types over the past three months.

Relatively large fractions reported stronger demand for many types of loans over that period.
...
Regarding loans to households, reported changes in standards were mixed across loan categories, while demand increased somewhat. Lending standards over the past three months were little changed, on net, for prime mortgages and tightened somewhat for nontraditional mortgages. However, a relatively large fraction of respondents reported having experienced stronger demand for prime mortgages over the same time period.
...
A sizable fraction of domestic banks reported that their business had increased due to decreased competition from European banks and that they remain willing to accommodate additional such business. In response to the second set of special questions, about one-third of the respondents that are participating in HARP 2.0 reported that HARP refinance applications accounted for a significant share of total refinance applications over the past three months, and a large majority of respondents indicated that they anticipate that more than 60 percent of received HARP applications will be approved and successfully completed.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here are some charts from the Fed.

This graph shows the change in demand for CRE (commercial real estate) loans.

Increasing demand and some easing in standards suggests some increase in CRE activity.

The second graph shows the change in demand for mortgages. Note the break in the graph - in recent years, the Fed has asked about demand for different types of mortgages.

It appears demand for mortgages is picking up.

The survey also has some discussion on Europe. Whereas domestic banks are easing standards slightly and seeing an increase in demand, they are tightening standards for lending to European banks:

large fractions of both domestic and foreign banks that extend credit to banks headquartered in Europe or their affiliates or subsidiaries indicated that they had tightened standards on such loans over the past three months.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 12:44:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 28 July

In year-over-year comparisons for the week, occupancy ended the week with a 3.3-percent increase to 75.1 percent, average daily rate increased 4.8 percent to US$108.95 and revenue per available room ended the week with an increase of 8.2 percent to US$81.87.

The 4-week average is still above last year, and is close to pre-recession levels. The occupancy rate has been above 75% for the last two weeks - for the first time since 2007.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

This could be the peak weekly occupancy rate for 2012 (the 4-week average will move up some more). Overall occupancy is back to normal, and will probably move higher over the next couple of years since there is limited new supply being built.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2012 09:01:00 AM

From CBSAtlanta: Gas prices in Metro Atlanta still on the rise

Average retail gasoline prices in Atlanta rose 5.7 cents per gallon last week, averaging $3.52/g Sunday ... The national average increased 9.3 cents per gallon in the last week to $3.60/g.
...
"Watching the national average last week, one might have expected war broke out in the Middle East or a major hurricane shutting down production, neither of which happened, yet gasoline prices spiked," said GasBuddy.com Senior Petroleum Analyst Patrick DeHaan. "... The good news for motorists is that the end to the summer driving season and change to winter-spec fuel is in view, which will likely put downward pressure on gasoline prices."

Professor Hamilton presented a calculator from Political Calculations that estimates the cost of gasoline based on Brent oil prices. Currently this suggests a price of around $3.55 per gallon - about the current price.

The following graph shows the recent increase in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices are down from the peak in early April, but up about 20 cents over the last five weeks.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 3rd
• Schedule for Week of Aug 5th