by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Slip in June, Remain Above a Year Ago

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 1.4 percent to 99.3 in June from a downwardly revised 100.7 in May but is 9.5 percent higher than June 2011 when it was 90.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 7.6 percent to 76.6 in June but is 12.2 percent higher than a year ago. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.4 percent to 94.4 in June but is 17.3 percent above June 2011. Pending home sales in the South declined 2.0 percent to an index of 106.2 in June but are 8.8 percent above a year earlier. In the West the index rose 2.6 percent in June to 111.5 and is 3.0 percent higher than June 2011.

This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.9% increase for this index.

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this is for sales in July and August.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000.(Revised up from 386,000). The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 367,250.

The sharp swings over the last few weeks are apparently related to difficulty adjusting for auto plant shutdowns.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

This was well below the consensus forecast of 380,000 and is the lowest level for the four week average since March.


All current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 09:15:00 PM

First, a nice review of the FOMC options next week: An early FOMC preview: the menu of options

And another edition of "unexpected" declines ...

From the Financial Times: UK economy smaller than when Cameron took office

The UK’s double-dip recession has deepened sharply and unexpectedly, leaving the economy smaller than it was when the coalition government took office two years ago.

From the WSJ: U.K. Stumbles, Fueling Austerity Debate

The U.K.'s economy suffered a much larger contraction than expected in the second quarter ... The economy shrank 0.7% between April and June ... double-dip recession that is the worst in 50 years

Austerity and a depressed economy leading to a severe recession ... hoocoodanode? (sorry for sarcasm).

Here is one guy who has been consistently wrong, from Bloomberg: Schaeuble Declares Markets Wrong as Europe Heads to Vacation

Oh my. "The markets are wrong and I'm going on vacation."

On Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 380 thousand from 386 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Durable Goods Orders for June will be released. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, the NAR will release the Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in the index.

• And at 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for July will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 4 from 3 in June (above zero is expansion). These regional manufacturing surveys have been disappointing in July.

Earlier on New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
• Some comments on New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
• Lawler on New Home Sales and Revisions
• New Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 04:46:00 PM

Note: "LPS has updated its extrapolation methodology. This improves estimates of market size (and includes wider coverage of both government and subprime products) and increases LPS' estimate of the total first lien residential mortgage market by three percent to 50.4 million." LPS has kindly provided me with some updated historical data for the table below.

LPS released their First Look report for June today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent increased in June from May, and declined year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in June, but remains at a very high level.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) increased to 7.14% from 6.91% in May. The percent of delinquent loans is still significantly above the normal rate of around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of delinquent loans peaked at 10.57%, so delinquencies have fallen over half way back to normal. The increase was mostly in the less than 90 days delinquent category.

The following table shows the LPS numbers for June 2012, and also for last month (May 2012) and one year ago (June 2011).

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	12-Jun	12-May	11-Jun
Delinquent	7.14%	6.91%	7.71%
In Foreclosure	4.09%	4.17%	4.13%
Number of loans:
Loans Less Than 90 Days	2,012,000	1,923,000	2,229,000
Loans 90 Days or more	1,590,000	1,571,000	1,752,000
Loans In Foreclosure	2,061,000	2,110,000	2,133,000
Total	5,663,000	5,604,000	6,114,000

The number of delinquent loans, but not in foreclosure, is down about 10% year-over-year (379,000 fewer mortgages delinquent), and the number of loans in the foreclosure process is down 3% or 70,000 year-over-year.

The percent of loans less than 90 days delinquent is close to normal, but the percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process are still very high.

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2012 03:54:00 PM

From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Jumped 1.2% in June

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.2% in June after falling 1.0% in May. (May’s loss was larger than the 0.7% drop ATA reported on June 19.) June’s increase was the largest month-to-month gain in 2012. However, the index contracted a total of 2.1% in April and May. The latest gain increased the SA index to 119.0 (2000=100), up from May’s level of 117.5. Compared with June 2011, the SA index was 3.2% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since March 2012. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.7%.
...
“June’s increase was a pleasant surprise, but the lower year-over-year gain fits with an economy that has slowed,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “Manufacturing output was strong in June, which helped tonnage levels.” ... Costello lowered his tonnage outlook for 2012 to the 3% to 3.5% range due to recent economic weakness.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index. The index is above the pre-recession level and still up 3.7% year-over-year - but has been moving mostly sideways in 2012.

From ATA:

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.2 billion tons of freight in 2011. Motor carriers collected $603.9 billion, or 80.9% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

Earlier on New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales declined in June to 350,000 Annual Rate
• Some comments on New Home Sales and Distressing Gap
• Lawler on New Home Sales and Revisions
• New Home Sales graphs