by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 04:23:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

I haven't posted these graphs in a few months. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in April 1999; over 13 years ago.

The second graph (click on graph for larger image) from Doug Short shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 01:05:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 July

In year-over-year comparisons for the week, occupancy ended the week with a 3.7-percent decrease to 61.4 percent, average daily rate increased 3.0 percent to US$101.67 and revenue per available room ended the week virtually flat with a 0.8-percent decrease to US$62.37.

The decline in occupancy last week was due to the timing of July 4th (and probably impacted by the mid-week holiday). The 4-week average is still above last year, and is close to the pre-recession levels.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2012, yellow is for 2011, blue is "normal" and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

Looking forward, leisure travel usually increases over the summer months, and occupancy rates will probably average 70% for the next couple of months. It looks like 2012 will have higher occupancy than 2011, and be close to the pre-recession median. But it will be sometime before investment increases again.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for July declined to 72.0, down from the June reading of 73.2.

This was below the consensus forecast of 73.5 and the lowest level this year. Overall sentiment is still weak - probably due to a combination of the high unemployment rate and the sluggish economy.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2012 08:46:00 AM

From MarketWatch: U.S. wholesale prices rise 0.1% in June

U.S. wholesale prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in June as higher costs for food, light trucks and appliances offset another decline in energy costs, the Labor Department said Friday. Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, core wholesale prices rose a slightly faster 0.2%.
...
Over the past year wholesale prices have risen an unadjusted 0.7%.

Press release from JPMorgan: JPMORGAN CHASE REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER 2012 NET INCOME OF $5.0 BILLION, OR $1.21 PER SHARE, ON REVENUE OF $22.9 BILLION

"$4.4 billion pretax loss ($0.69 per share after-tax reduction in earnings) from CIO trading losses and $1.0 billion pretax benefit ($0.16 per share after-tax increase in earnings) from securities gains in CIO’s investment securities portfolio in Corporate"

Much more at FT/alphaville: US Markets Live, Jamie beaches the Whale special edition and 'CIO Risk Management was ineffective in dealing with Synthetic Credit Portfolio’

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2012 09:17:00 PM

• At 7:00 AM ET, J.P. Morgan will report second Quarter 2012 Financial Results. The press release and conference call will provide an update on the CIO losses. ft.com/alphaville will be following the conference call on US Markets Live starting at 7:30 AM.

The WSJ Deal Journal will also be blogging the 2 hour conference call (2 hour call?). From the WSJ: J.P. Morgan Earnings: What to Watch

The bank is so full of news that Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, along with his CFO Doug Braunstein, will host a 2-hour conference call tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m., shortly after the results hit.

WSJ has reported the bank expects the loss to be about $5 billion, and many analysts are looking for that number too.

Analysts expect total revenue to fall 20% to $21.9 billion for the bank.

I've seen CIO loss estimates as high as $6.5 billion.

• At 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for June will be released. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 9:55 AM, the preliminary Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index will be released. The consensus is for sentiment to increase slightly to 73.5 from 73.2 in June.

For the economic question contest: