by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 06:16:00 PM

Liquidity floods
Oceans boil with cheap money
Still banks submerging
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Harbor Community Bank, Indiantown, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Putnam State Bank, Palatka, Florida

As of March 31, 2012, Putnam State Bank had approximately $169.5 million in total assets and $160.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $37.4 million. ... Putnam State Bank is the 29th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Florida.

From the FDIC: Fidelity Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Security Exchange Bank, Marietta, Georgia

As of March 31, 2012, Security Exchange Bank had approximately $151.0 million in total assets and $147.9 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $34.3 million. ... Security Exchange Bank is the 30th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in Georgia.

From the FDIC: Clayton Bank and Trust, Knoxville, Tennessee, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Farmers Bank of Lynchburg, Lynchburg, Tennessee

As of March 31, 2012, The Farmers Bank of Lynchburg had approximately $163.9 million in total assets and $156.4 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $28.3 million. ... The Farmers Bank of Lynchburg is the 31st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Tennessee.

That makes seven failed banks in two weeks (so far) - feels like old times!

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 05:15:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on local realtor/MLS reports I’ve seen so far, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.66 million, up 0.9% from April’s pace and up 12.3% from last May’s SA pace. For folks watching unadjusted data, May’s YOY sales gain almost certainly exceeded April’s by a far amount. However, this April’s seasonal factor was lower than last year’s (meaning SA sales YOY rose by more than NSA sales), while this May’s seasonal factor (due mainly to a higher business day count) will be higher than last May’s (meaning SA sales YOY will rise by less than NSA sales).

On the inventory side, various reports tracking listings across metro areas across the country suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale in May were up 1-2% on the month and down 20-22%from a year ago. However, NAR inventory data month to month don’t track these “listings” reports very closely, with the monthly “differences” having a distinct seasonal component. (Every April, e.g., the NAR’s inventory number shows a much larger gain than folks who track listings.)

My “best guess” is that the NAR’s inventory estimate in May will be down about 20.8% from last May. That would imply an estimate of about 2.48 million, which would be down 2.4% from April. Of course, the inventory of existing homes for sale did not really decline 2.4% from April to May, just as the inventory didn’t increase 9.5% from March to April. But listings data seem to track NAR data best if one looks at YOY data, and ignore the strange monthly “quirks” in the NAR estimates.

On median sales prices, my “best guess” using regional data and a sales-weighting scheme is that the median existing SF home sales price this May will be up about 6.6% from last May. However, I should note that last month I was only looking for a YOY increase of 5.5%, and NAR’s report showed a 10.4% YOY increase. After getting in more local data, for the life of me I can’t figure out how the NAR’s number came in so high last month. The regional data were even wackier, with the 10.9% YOY increase in the median SF sales price in the Northeast looking almost inconceivable given reported YOY increases in the various states in the Northeast. I say “almost” because the “mix” of sales can produce “strange” results, but my gut is that the NAR’s number was ... well, simply wrong (would not be the first time!)

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release their May existing home sales report next Thursday, June 21st. The consensus forecast is for sales of 4.57 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

Based on Lawler's estimate of 4.66 million SAAR and inventory at 2.48 million, months-of-supply would decline to 6.4 months from 6.6 months in April. That would be the lowest months-of-supply for May since 2005.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 03:01:00 PM

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possibly some hints about the trade report for May. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down about 0.2%, and outbound traffic is unchanged compared to April.

In general, inbound and outbound traffic has been moving sideways recently.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of May, loaded outbound traffic was down 2.4% compared to May 2011, and loaded inbound traffic was unchanged compared to May 2011.

This suggests imports from Asia might be down a little in May, and exports mostly unchanged. (Note: the dollar value of oil imports will be down in May too, so the trade deficit should decline).

All current trade graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 11:47:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were little changed in May. Eighteen states recorded unemployment rate increases, 14 states and the District of Columbia posted rate decreases, and 18 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-nine states and the District of Columbia registered unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, while only one state experienced an increase.
...
Nevada continued to record the highest unemployment rate among the states, 11.6 percent in May [down from 11.7% in April]. Rhode Island and California posted the next highest rates, 11.0 and 10.8 percent, respectively [down from 11.2% and 10.9%]. North Dakota again registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.0 percent, followed by Nebraska, 3.9 percent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). Every state has some blue - indicating no state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Only three states still have double digit unemployment rates: Nevada, Rhode Island, and California. This is the fewest since January 2009. In early 2010, 18 states and D.C. had double digit unemployment rates.

It appears some of the "sand states", with the largest housing bubbles, are starting to see faster declines in the unemployment rate (Arizona, Florida, California and Nevada).


All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2012 09:55:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June declined to 74.1, down from the May reading of 79.3.

This was below the consensus forecast of 77.5 and the lowest level this year. Overall sentiment is still weak - probably due to a combination of the high unemployment rate and the sluggish economy.