by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2012 05:25:00 PM

CR Note: Earlier this month I posted some distressed sales data for Sacramento. I'm following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (short sales, foreclosure, conventional). Economist Tom Lawler has been digging up similar data, and he sent me the updated table below for several more distressed areas. For all of these areas, with the exception of Rhode Island, the share of distressed sales is down from April 2011 - and for the areas that break out short sales, the share of short sales has increased and the share of foreclosure sales are down - and down significantly in some areas.

In five of the seven cities that break out short sales, there are now more short sales than foreclosure sales!

Lawler noted "all of the below shares are based on MLS data save for California [that uses] Dataquick estimates based on property records."

And Lawler on Pending Home Sales:

Click on graph for larger image.

"The National Association of Realtors reported that its Pending Home Sales Index declined by 5.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after jumping by 3.8% (downwardly revised) in March. April’s PHSI was up 14.4% (SA) from last April. By region, April’s PHSI increased by 0.9% in the Northeast, fell by 0.3% in the Midwest, dropped by 6.8% in the South, and plunged by 12.0% in the West (after jumping by 8.5% in March).

The jump in contracts signed in March, and decline in April, could well have been related to the FHA’s announcement in late February that it was increasing its up-front and annual mortgage insurance premiums effective for FHA case numbers assigned in early April or later."

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-Apr	11-Apr	12-Apr	11-Apr	12-Apr	11-Apr
Las Vegas	29.9%	23.8%	36.9%	46.3%	66.8%	70.1%
Reno	32.0%	31.0%	26.0%	38.0%	58.0%	69.0%
Phoenix	25.2%	19.7%	18.8%	44.5%	44.0%	64.2%
Sacramento	30.4%	22.2%	30.3%	44.6%	60.7%	66.8%
Minneapolis	10.9%	10.0%	32.0%	43.3%	42.9%	53.3%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	12.2%	11.8%	11.0%	20.9%	23.2%	32.7%
Orlando	29.4%	25.4%	25.5%	40.2%	54.9%	65.6%
Northeast Florida					38.1%	50.3%
Hampton Roads					31.0%	35.0%
Rhode Island					32.6%	31.3%
California	18.3%	16.9%	30.3%	36.4%	48.6%	53.3%
Miami-Dade					47.0%	59.0%
Broward					38.0%	50.0%

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2012 03:11:00 PM

A post by CR on Yahoo: House Prices: The Turning Point

Edit: I meant "turning" instead of "inflection"

Some data and articles mentioned in the post:

• Real House prices and price-to-rent ratio

• S&P Case-Shiller: Pace of Decline in Home Prices Moderates as the First Quarter of 2012 Ends

• Zillow: Home Values Continue to Climb in April

• CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in March, Down 0.6% Year-over-year

• Trulia: Strong Housing Demand and Tightening Inventories Spark Nearly 2 Percent Rise in Asking Prices over Previous Quarter

• April Existing Home Sales and Inventory

• LPS: “First Look” Mortgage Report

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2012 12:26:00 PM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports 66,000 Completed Foreclosures Nationally in April

CoreLogic ... today released its National Foreclosure Report for April, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures and the overall foreclosure inventory. According to the report, there were 66,000 completed foreclosures in the U.S. in April 2012 compared to 78,000 in April 2011 and 66,000* in March 2012. Since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.6 million completed foreclosures across the country. Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure.

Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of April 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, in April 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in March 2012.

“There were more than 830,000 completed foreclosures over the past year or, in other words, one completed foreclosure for every 622 mortgaged homes,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Non-judicial foreclosure markets, like Nevada, Arizona and California, completed two and a half times as many foreclosures over the past year as judicial foreclosure states.”
...
“The inventory of homes in foreclosure in judicial foreclosure states is growing, but this increase is being more than offset by declining inventories in non-judicial states where the processing timelines to clear a foreclosure are shorter,” said Anand Nallathambi, chief executive officer of CoreLogic.

This is a new monthly report and might help track the number of completed foreclosures, and to see if the lenders are starting to clear the foreclosure inventory backlog following the mortgage settlement.

So far we haven't seen a surge in completed foreclosures - or a large increase in REO (lender Real Estate Owned) coming on the market. Note: The foreclosure inventory reported by CoreLogic is lower than either reported by LPS of 4.14% of mortgages or 2 million in foreclosure, and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Q1 report showing 4.39% of loans in the foreclosure process.

My guess is the "surge" in foreclosures will be less than many people expect (see from April: Some thoughts on housing and foreclosures).

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Decline in April but Up Strongly From a Year Ago

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 5.5 percent to 95.5 from a downwardly revised 101.1 in March but is 14.4 percent above April 2011 when it was 83.5. The data reflects contracts but not closings.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast rose 0.9 percent to 78.9 in April and is 19.9 percent higher than April 2011. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.3 percent to 93.0 but is 23.0 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 6.8 percent to an index of 105.7 in April but are 13.3 percent higher than April 2011. In the West the index dropped 12.0 percent in April to 94.9 but is 5.1 percent above a year ago.

This was below the consensus of a 0.5% increase for this index.

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this is for sales in May and June.

by Calculated Risk on 5/30/2012 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Rates Drop to New Survey Lows

The Refinance Index decreased 1.5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.91 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.46 from 0.39 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

The purchase index is still very weak. This index has mostly been moving sideways for the last two years, although the 4-week average has increased slightly over the last couple of months.

Mortgates rates fell to another record low last week.