by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2012 08:40:00 AM

An important story that I haven't written about recently ... from Shaila Dewan at the NY Times: U.S. Winds Down Longer Benefits for the Unemployed

Hundreds of thousands of out-of-work Americans are receiving their final unemployment checks sooner than they expected, even though Congress renewed extended benefits until the end of the year. ... In February, when the program was set to expire, Congress renewed it, but also phased in a reduction of the number of weeks of extended aid and effectively made it more difficult for states to qualify for the maximum aid. Since then, the jobless in 23 states have lost up to five months’ worth of benefits.

Next month, an additional 70,000 people will lose benefits earlier than they presumed, bringing the number of people cut off prematurely this year to close to half a million, according to the National Employment Law Project. That estimate does not include people who simply exhausted the weeks of benefits they were entitled to.
...
Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits, plus the federal extensions that kicked in after the financial crash.

The number of extra weeks available by state is determined by several factors, including the state’s unemployment rate and whether it is higher than three years earlier. So states like California have had benefits cut even though the unemployment rate there is still almost 11 percent.

“Benefits have ended not because economic conditions have improved, but because they have not significantly deteriorated in the past three years,” Hannah Shaw, a researcher at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, wrote in a blog post. In May, an estimated 95,000 people lost benefits in California.
...
by the end of September, the extended benefits will end in the last three states providing 99 weeks of assistance — Nevada, New Jersey and Rhode Island.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2012 09:52:00 PM

• The S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March is scheduled to be released at 9:00 AM ET. The consensus is for a 2.7% decrease year-over-year in the Composite 20 index (NSA) in March.

The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 index to decline 2.6% year-over-year, and for prices to increase slightly month-over-month seasonally adjusted. I expect these indexes to be at new post-bubble lows, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

• At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 69.7 from 69.2 last month.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for the general business activity index to increase to 3.0, up from -3.4 in April. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight. The Nikkei is down about 0.3%, and the Shanghai Composite is down slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 futures are up about 5, and Dow futures are up 40.

Oil: WTI futures are at $90.08 (this is down from $109.77 in February) and Brent is at $106.90 per barrel.

Saturday:
• Summary for Week Ending May 25th
• Schedule for Week of May 27th
For the monthly economic question contest (two more questions for May, and four questions for June):

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2012 02:11:00 PM

The following graphs show the number of cities with increasing house prices on a year-over-year, six month, and month-over-month basis.

The first graph is based on the Case-Shiller Composite 20 cities using seasonally adjusted data starting in January 2007.

There were still a few cities with increasing prices in early 2007. The increases in 2009 and 2010 were related to the housing tax credit (all of those gains and more are gone).

Recently prices have started increasing in more and more cities again. Note: Case-Shiller data is through February, Zillow data is through April.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The second graph shows the same year-over-year, six month, and month-over-month price increases for the 166 cities tracked by Zillow.

The pattern is similar to the Case-Shiller Composite 20 cities.

I expect that the number of cities with a year-over-year price increase will continue to climb all year, and later this year the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index (and Zillow national index) will turn positive on a year-over-year basis.

In February, the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index was down 3.4% year-over-year, down 2.5% over the last six months, and up slightly in February. The March data will be released this coming Tuesday.

The Zillow national index was down 1.4% year-over-year in April, only down 0.4% over the last six months, and up 0.7% month-over-month. This index will probably turn positive year-over-year in a few months.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2012 09:06:00 AM

From the Financial Times: Spain’s borrowing costs near crisis level

Yields on Spain’s 10-year government bonds on Monday moved above 6.50 per cent once again – moving closer to the 7 per cent level that prompted bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
...
Spreads on Spanish 10-year bonds over German Bunds were also flirting with euro-era highs, climbing above 500 basis points.
excerpt with permission

From the WSJ: Bankia Bailout Hits Spanish Bonds

Spanish sovereign bonds came under heavy pressure Monday, pushing yield spreads against German bunds and debt insurance costs to record highs, after the government announced a €19 billion ($23.78 billion) bailout of Bankia SA late Friday.

The effective nationalization of Bankia raised concern the government may be on the hook for further funds to prop up its fragile banking sector.

From Reuters: Yields rise at Italy 2-yr debt sale

Italian two-year borrowing costs rose to their highest since December at a sale of zero-coupon paper on Monday as the prospect of a possible Greek euro exit and Spain's banking woes continued to weigh on the debt of weaker euro zone borrowers.

Here are some links to various European bond yields. The Spanish 10 year yield is at 6.44%, and the Italian 10 year yield is at 5.7%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2012 05:52:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 25, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As expected, this week the FDIC released the Official Problem Bank List through March 2012 and it enforcement actions through April 2012. For the week, there were nine removals and 12 additions, which leaves the Unofficial Problem Bank List with 931 institutions and assets of $358.1 billion. A year ago, the list held 997 institutions with assets of $415.4 billion. From last week, the count on the UPBL increased by three while assets dropped by $3.9 billion. However, the decline in assets was solely due to shrinkage as updated assets figures through q1 declined by $5.1 billion. Moreover, the count increased in back-to-back weeks, which has not happened since a three consecutive weekly increase from June 24, 2011 through July 8, 2011. For the month, the UPBL increased from 930 to 931, but assets declined by $3.7 billion with the shrinkage also due to the updated assets figures. The FDIC reported the Official Problem Bank List at 772 institutions with assets of $292 billion.

The nine removals all were action terminations -- The Stillwater National Bank and Trust Company, Stillwater, OK ($2.0 billion Ticker: OKSB); Guaranty Bank and Trust Company, Denver, CO ($1.7 billion Ticker: GBNK); Transportation Alliance Bank, Inc., Ogden, UT ($852 million); First State Bank, New London, WI ($284 million); Front Range Bank, Lakewood, CO ($152 million); Bank of Alpena, Alpena, MI ($70 million); Security State Bank of Kenyon, Kenyon, MN ($53 million); VisionBank, Saint Louis Park, MN ($31 million); and Quality Bank, Fingal, ND ($25 million).

The 12 additions this weekly are the most since 16 institutions were added for the UPBL published on October 28, 2011. The additions this week were SpiritBank, Tulsa, OK ($1.3 billion); Crown Bank, Elizabeth, NJ ($575 million); Community Bank of Broward, Dania Beach, FL ($464 million); The Foster Bank, Chicago, IL ($441 million); Anderson Brothers Bank, Mullins, SC ($438 million); The Bank of Delmarva, Seaford, DE ($437 million Ticker: DBCP); Affinity Bank, Atlanta, GA ($285 million); Highlands Independent Bank, Sebring, FL ($270 million); The First National Bank of Ottawa, Ottawa, IL ($270 million Ticker: FOTB); First Trust and Savings Bank, Oneida, TN ($149 million); Hometown Community Bank, Braselton, GA ($137 million); and Legacy State Bank, Loganville, GA ($74 million).

Other changes include the FDIC issuing a Prompt Corrective Action Order against The Farmers Bank of Lynchburg, Lynchburg, TN ($164 million). Strangely, the PCA order was issued on November 21, 2011, but the FDIC waited until May 2012 to disclose.

It is anticipated next week's activity will be largely removals so the consecutive weekly increase should end. Until then, wishing all our readers a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend and we send out many thanks for all the past and current and their families for their service and sacrifice securing our freedom.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending May 25th
• Schedule for Week of May 27th