by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2012 08:38:00 AM

Note: The Greek polls will be open until noon ET Sunday, and the French polls will be open until 2 PM ET.

Here are a few articles:

From the Athens News: Angry Greeks vote in cliffhanger election

Greeks enraged by economic hardship voted on Sunday in a deeply uncertain election ... Leaders from all sides emphasised the importance of the vote - which pollsters say is impossible to call - for the future of Greece, now suffering one of the worst recessions in postwar Europe.

From the WSJ: Greeks Head to Polls Amid Anger, Doubts Over Euro Future

The highly contested vote is expected to reflect the public's widespread anger with the political establishment after years of painful austerity and potentially usher in a prolonged period of unstable administrations and successive elections. ... anti-incumbent sentiment high and the country struggling through a fifth year of recession

From the Financial Times: France votes in presidential election

Millions of voters are casting their ballots in the second and final round of France’s presidential election with François Hollande favourite to win in what would be the first victory for a socialist candidate for 17 years.
excerpt with permission

From the WSJ: France Heads to Polls in Key Election for Euro Zone

From Le Monde: Scrutin présidentiel : Sarkozy et Hollande suspendus au vote des Français

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2012 10:55:00 PM

The Greek polls will be open until noon ET Sunday, and the French polls will be open until 2 PM ET.

The Greek polls will be open from 7 AM to 7 PM local time according to the Athens News.

Voting in the 2012 general election will get underway at 7am on Sunday ... Polling stations will remain open until 7pm.

Unofficial exit polls will be announced, via the media, by the country’s polling agencies shortly after the closing of polling stations.

The authorities say that they expect results from a quarter of polling stations by 9.30[pm], while the first indicative results are anticipated no sooner than 11[pm] on Sunday night.

The vote should be completed in the early hours of Monday morning

No party will win a majority in Greece; the leading party (New Democracy) will try to form a collation government with one or more of the smaller parties - so the drama will probably drag on for some time.

The French polls will be open from 8 AM to 8 PM local time (from 2 AM ET to 2 PM ET).

Unless there is a major surprise, the media will declare François Hollande the winner pretty early in France.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 4th
• Schedule for Week of May 6th

Employment posts yesterday:
• April Employment Report: 115,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
• April Employment Summary and Discussion
• More Graphs: Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• All Current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2012 08:35:00 PM

Once again rail traffic was "mixed". This was because of the sharp decline in coal traffic (mild winter, low natural gas prices), and also for grains. Other commodities were up, such as building related commodities such as lumber and crushed stone, gravel, sand. From the Association of American Railroads (AAR): Reports Mixed Rail Traffic for April

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported U.S. rail carloads originated in April 2012 totaled 1,113,105, down 64,335 carloads or 5.5 percent, compared with April 2011. Intermodal volume in April 2012 was 946,951 trailers and containers, up 32,505 units or up 3.6 percent, compared with April 2011.
...
Commodities with carload declines in April were led by coal, down 85,719 carloads, or 16.6 percent compared with April 2011. This was coal’s biggest year-over-year percentage decline in rail traffic on record.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).

Once again, coal was the main reason for the decline in total carloads. Coal carloads were down 16.6% (85,719 carloads) in April 2012, their biggest year-over-year percentage decline on record. A warm winter, low natural gas prices that make gas-based electricity generation more competitive vis-à-vis coal-based generation, and environmental pressures are all reducing U.S. coal consumption, and thus rail coal carloads.

Meanwhile, U.S. rail grain carloads were down 17.2% (16,402 carloads) in April 2012 from April 2011, their 10th straight significant decline. Grain carloads are hurting largely because U.S. grain exports are down.

The second graph is just for coal and shows the sharp decline this year.

Just when you thought coal couldn’t get worse, it did. U.S. coal carloads fell 16.6% (85,719 carloads) in April 2012 from April 2011, the biggest monthly decline on record. (Our data begin in 1988.) Average U.S. coal carloads of 107,379 in April 2012 were the lowest of any month since July 1993. ...
Again this month, rail traffic is more encouraging if you forget about coal and grain. Excluding coal, U.S. rail carloads were up 3.2% (21,384 carloads) in April 2012 over April 2011.

The third graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Graphs reprinted with permission.

Intermodal traffic is now close to the peak year of 2006.

U.S. intermodal traffic — containers and trailers on railroad flat cars — was up 3.6% (32,505 units) in April 2012 over April 2011 to 946,951 units, its 29th straight year-over-year monthly increase. The average in April 2012 was 236,738 intermodal units per week, the second highest average of any April in history (just behind April 2006’s 237,062) and the 13th highest of any month in history. (Most of the top months are in the fall, when intermodal tends to peak.)

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 4th
• Schedule for Week of May 6th

Employment posts yesterday:
• April Employment Report: 115,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
• April Employment Summary and Discussion
• More Graphs: Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• All Current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2012 04:47:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 4, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Relatively quiet week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List with five removals. The removals lower the institution list count to 925 with assets of $361.1 billion. A year-ago, the list held 983 institutions with assets of $422.2 billion.

One removal was due to failure -- Security Bank, National Association, North Lauderdale, Florida ($95 million); two removals from action termination by the Federal Reserve-- MidSouth Bank, Murfreesboro, TN ($239 million) and North Valley Bank, Zanesville, OH ($153 million); and two from unassisted mergers -- Farmers National Bank, Walton, KY ($85 million) and State Bank of Cokato, Cokato, MN ($53 million). Perhaps next week the OCC will release its actions through mid-April 2012.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 4th
• Schedule for Week of May 6th

Employment posts yesterday:
• April Employment Report: 115,000 Jobs, 8.1% Unemployment Rate
• April Employment Summary and Discussion
• More Graphs: Construction Employment, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• All Current Employment Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2012 01:01:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 4th

This will be a light week for economic releases. The key economic release is the March trade balance report to be released on Thursday.

There will be several speeches by Fed officials, including from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on bank regulation.

The elections in Europe will be a focus on Sunday.

----- Sunday, May 6th -----
On Sunday, France and Greece will hold elections. In France, François Hollande is expected to win, although recent polls are close.

In Greece, no party will win a majority and many of the minor parties are expected to get a boost from the anti-austerity vote.

----- Monday, May 7th -----
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for March. The consensus is for a $9.8 billion increase in consumer credit.


----- Tuesday, May 8th -----
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index declined to 92.5 in March from 94.3 in February.

The consensus is for an increase to 93.0 in April.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased slightly in February, and the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up. Quits also increased in February, and quits are now at the highest level since 2008. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market.


----- Wednesday, May 9th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for March. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in inventories.


----- Thursday, May 10th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims an increased to 366,000 from 365,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

Exports increased slightly in February, while imports decreased sharply. Exports are well above the pre-recession peak and up 9% compared to February 2011; imports are near the pre-recession high and imports are up about 8% compared to February 2011.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $49.5 billion in March, up from from $46.0 billion in February. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched due to economic weakness.

8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices for March. The consensus is a for a 0.2% decrease in import prices.

9:30 AM: Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Banks and Bank Lending: The State of Play", At the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, Illinois


----- Friday, May 11th -----
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for April. The consensus is for no change in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for May). The consensus is for sentiment to decline to 76.2 from 76.4 in April.